re: If LSU "O" moves to 40 out of 120, what will be our 2010 record?

Another fact to consider before concluding that picking up 100+ yards per game is doable, is that most games comprise around 12 possessions per game. (some as few as 8-9 and some as many as 16-18).

Assuming 12 as a average, LSU would need to average less about 8.3 yards more per possession in offense.

Yes, on the surface that sounds like a bunch per possession, but when you consider how many 3-and-outs we had, that becomes very doable with an effective offense.

LSU moving to 40 out of 120 in offense is very doable - with Shep on the field more consistently and an improved running game.

This infatuation with our offensive ranking is still kinda bizarre to me. So many things go into that. You can have a good and effective offense, that doesn't necessarily rank that high for a variety of reasons.

1) The SEC schedule. Being #40 playing an SEC schedule is not the same as being #40 playing a WAC schedule. That's why anybody who believed we had the 112th "best" offense last year instead of just the 112th "ranked" offense, couldn't really be taken seriously

2) OOC schedule. We are replacing 2 pad-your-stats cupcakes with North Carolina and West Virginia. Even if we score points on those teams, the cumulative effect of not having a couple more games to rest players, may take it's toll by the end of the season

3) Special teams. I expect our return teams to score a few times this year, taking the ball out of our offense's hands. Also, I expect them to give short fields sometimes when they dont' house kicks.

4) Defensive big plays. Like our special teams, I think our defense is going to be a big play defense that not only houses a few scores themselves, but also gives our offense short fields turnovers.

5) If we're good, we should be up in the 4th quarter a lot and just pounding the ball on the ground to run out the clock. (I know we had the lead late a lot last year, but most of those games were still close, so we had to continue to try to score rather than just run out clock)


Our offense was atrocious last year. I didn't need a scarlet "112" to tell me that. Our offense could be very good this year, and I won't need some arbitrary "40" to tell me that. Especially when that ranking is amongst the WAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt conference members. Again, this fascination with our total offense ranking is very strange to me. If anything, the stat that matters is where we rank in points per game.

quote:

---

In other words, play the game, this is the rant - that's what we do.

---

I don't believe in the premise of the game, though. It doesn't work like that. We could rank #1 and still lose 3 games. We could rank #40 and be undefeated. But, as good as I think our defense and return games will be, I'd like to think a top 40 offense would translate into 10-2 at worst.

quote:

---

I don't believe in the premise of the game, though. It doesn't work like t

---

I understand your concern about the method chosen. ...so, forget rankings, just assume good improvement in the O and about the same in the other areas.
Based on that general condition, what will be out record?

quote:

---

therocketscientist

---

If we have a really good offense, I think anything from 10-2 to 12-0 is possible. And I don't mean to attack you by any means, but I think that "112" has been perpetuated to death by the anti-Miles and/or anti-JJ crowd. I'm just tired of seeing it.

We had our shots at beating UF, Bama and PSU and we FLAT OUT SUCKED, on Offense. Our D will be better, and if we can learn to not jump off sides killing drives, actually run the ball, not take 6 minutes to decide what play to run, give JJ just 2 more seconds to throw a ball and not have JJ take 23 yard drops and eat it we will ROCK!

quote:

---

112 to 40 is one hell of a jump

thats roughly 100 more yards per game if you look at the 40th ranked offense from 2009

---

Ditto. However, I think that's exactly what will happen.

Mostly because we'll get 10-15 more plays per game due to being able to run the ball in short yardage to move the chains.

11-1 with a top 40 O.

In response to the post about the importance/unimportance of the actual ranking, I think that the real issue is this: the offense was downright terrible last year and the ranking is just one way of conveying that. If we move to #40 or so, it will almost certainly mean that the O is playing well, maybe even very well. I tend to believe that you will these things if this happens:

LSU will not struggle so much to win games when it has a talent advantage. For example, games like Miss State and La Tech would not be nearly so close. This also decreases the chance of an ugly upset (sure, we avoided them last year, but we could have lost a game like that) Games with smaller talent edges or equal talent are more likely to go LSU's way. Say that this gives us 2 of 3 against Ole Miss, Arky, and Penn State instead of 1 of 3). In games where we arguably have a slight talent disadvantage, inspired play is more likely to net a slight upset victory (maybe 1 of 2 against Bama and Florida).

So, I say 10-2 with a shot at 11-1 if the O becomes a top 40 offense statistically.

quote:

---

112 to 40 is one hell of a jump

---

To be fair, they did drop about that far to get to 112. It isn't like the offense lacks talent across the board.

This is a 9-3 team if the offense improves. Lots of young guys on defense playing. they will make plays, but also make mistakes and give up some big plays.

We are small on the D-Line and teams will be able to run on us.