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re: I understand why O went for the field goal...
Posted on 1/4/18 at 1:52 pm to Southcoast
Posted on 1/4/18 at 1:52 pm to Southcoast
The problem was there honestly was no good option.
1. FG kicking was horrible and not guaranteed. Even extra points are an adventure. There was also a lot of time and the D surrendered a TD on the previous drive.
2. Run - we were getting very little movement on the OL and had already been stuffed on a previous drive as well as 3 times on that drive. If they didn't score the fans would be merciless.
3. Pass - we just didn't have the confidence in a well executed pass play and it was the lowest percentage option.
I probably would have run it, but I understand the thinking to kick.
1. FG kicking was horrible and not guaranteed. Even extra points are an adventure. There was also a lot of time and the D surrendered a TD on the previous drive.
2. Run - we were getting very little movement on the OL and had already been stuffed on a previous drive as well as 3 times on that drive. If they didn't score the fans would be merciless.
3. Pass - we just didn't have the confidence in a well executed pass play and it was the lowest percentage option.
I probably would have run it, but I understand the thinking to kick.
2
Posted on 1/4/18 at 1:52 pm to Southcoast
IDGAF about the run block grades. You go for it from the 1 foot line because it's a matter of comparative risk of the scenarios. .
1. Go and Make it.
RISK - The other team might score a TD to tie
RESULT - Overtime.
2. Kick Field goal.
Risk - Other team has plenty of time and starts from better position. Could score TD or FG.
RESULT - Loss or Overtime
3. Go and fail.
Risk. Other team goes drives the ball 65 yards in less than 2 minutes and FG or, TD to win.
Caveat to risk. It would be VERY unlikely that in a tied situation, ND goes wide open from the fricking 1 foot line!!! Hence, going to take more time.
Basically, the odds are VERY high that with #3, you end up in OT.
They're pretty high that you end up in OT with #2, but because of field position, losing becomes a REAL possibility.
And all of that is just forgetting that our FG kickers sucked arse. Sure. Dude made it, but when evaluating the odds, you sure needed to take in to account that he's sucked. And, I mean. Did you see that kicK? Holy frick. That may have been the worst "made" FG in history.
You go for it because there really are only two statistically likely outcomes. You win or you go to OT. Losing in regulation was a VERY low probability if you go for it.
1. Go and Make it.
RISK - The other team might score a TD to tie
RESULT - Overtime.
2. Kick Field goal.
Risk - Other team has plenty of time and starts from better position. Could score TD or FG.
RESULT - Loss or Overtime
3. Go and fail.
Risk. Other team goes drives the ball 65 yards in less than 2 minutes and FG or, TD to win.
Caveat to risk. It would be VERY unlikely that in a tied situation, ND goes wide open from the fricking 1 foot line!!! Hence, going to take more time.
Basically, the odds are VERY high that with #3, you end up in OT.
They're pretty high that you end up in OT with #2, but because of field position, losing becomes a REAL possibility.
And all of that is just forgetting that our FG kickers sucked arse. Sure. Dude made it, but when evaluating the odds, you sure needed to take in to account that he's sucked. And, I mean. Did you see that kicK? Holy frick. That may have been the worst "made" FG in history.
You go for it because there really are only two statistically likely outcomes. You win or you go to OT. Losing in regulation was a VERY low probability if you go for it.
This post was edited on 1/4/18 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 1/4/18 at 1:58 pm to BayouCowboy
quote:
If they didn't score the fans would be merciless.
And this, I think, is the real reason. It's pretty obvious that from Day One Orgeron seems VERY aware of what fans are saying (wonder why?) and tries to placate them.
Problem is, this game was virtually meaningless. If you don't show your young OL that you have faith that they can get enough of a push from the 1/2" line for Derrius Guice to bull his way into the endzone, then what are you telling them for next year?
Nah...I've been up his arse since he was named interim and still hate the hire...but I'd have respected that call regardless of the outcome of that play or the outcome of the game for what it said to his team.
And again...people were tired of the fact that Miles had started to coach scared. That was a scared coach move if you've ever seen one.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 1:59 pm to Wayne Campbell
quote:
Well, he made it pretty clear early on in the season that we didn't have a field goal kicker. That only leaves me with the question of why he kept trotting them out th
so he is never supposed to try to put points on the board unless its a td?
look the FG was the right call fpr a coach with zero good will built up and a defense that had been playing its arse off for most of the day.
up to that point they didnt even have 300 yards of offense and had 14 1st downs all day. taking the lead with that type of defensive output is the right call
This post was edited on 1/4/18 at 2:07 pm
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:01 pm to GeauxTigerTM
quote:
Problem is, this game was virtually meaningless. If you don't show your young OL that you have faith that they can get enough of a push from the 1/2" line for Derrius Guice to bull his way into the endzone, then what are you telling them for next year?
Hell, frick the OL. How about the message you send to your defense.
"Hey guys, I could give them the ball on the 1 foot line but I'm worried they'll drive to get a FG and win".
Instead, you give them the ball in normal field position where they can go full wide open on the defense.
Nice work O.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:02 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
You go for it because there really are only two statistically likely outcomes. You win or you go to OT. Losing in regulation was a VERY low probability if you go for it.
Your long post did not mention the ND FG kicker.
Based on his kicking 46 and 49 yard field goals in the game, makes your only two options of either a "win" or go to "OT" not "statistically likely outcomes" at all.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:03 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
Well, he made it pretty clear early on in the season that we didn't have a field goal kicker. That only leaves me with the question of why he kept trotting them out th
we had just been stuffed the drive before and had to throw it.
as bad as our fb kicking had been the better chance of taking the lead was kicking a fg. thats the most sure way to take the lead imo.
but its subjective. there is definitely logic to your opinion. its not like im saying going for it is wrong and maybe im looking at tge situation as if the fg is automatic when i shouldnt be
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:03 pm to Southcoast
Hindsight is 20/20. Without knowing the ultimate outcome, if you would have told this board that LSU would be up 3 with 2:00 to play and ND was starting at it's own 27 with 1 timeout vs. Aranda's defense 95% of the posters would have been more than confident in the defense.
Also, could you imagine this place if O passes on the go-ahead FG from inside the ND one, fails to score on 4th down and ND wins late with a FG? This place would have been apoplectic! The mantra would have been you NEVER pass up points to take a lead late in a tie game.
Personally, I would have liked to have seen O go for it because I'm a big believer of inside the 3 is four down territory AND because the stakes of the game weren't high. Whatever the result of the game the season was going to end. It's not as if the loss prevented LSU from winning the SEC or playing for a National Title. You don't have a whole lot to lose by being bold in that situation.
The loss sucks, but I understand why O took the points. He trusted his defense who rarely lets him down.
Also, could you imagine this place if O passes on the go-ahead FG from inside the ND one, fails to score on 4th down and ND wins late with a FG? This place would have been apoplectic! The mantra would have been you NEVER pass up points to take a lead late in a tie game.
Personally, I would have liked to have seen O go for it because I'm a big believer of inside the 3 is four down territory AND because the stakes of the game weren't high. Whatever the result of the game the season was going to end. It's not as if the loss prevented LSU from winning the SEC or playing for a National Title. You don't have a whole lot to lose by being bold in that situation.
The loss sucks, but I understand why O took the points. He trusted his defense who rarely lets him down.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:04 pm to GeauxTigerTM
quote:
people were tired of the fact that Miles had started to coach scared. That was a scared coach move if you've ever seen one.
You wouldn't know a scared coach move if you saw one. It was a move that should have won the game or at least gotten the game to OT.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:04 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
Hell, frick the OL. How about the message you send to your defense.
"Hey guys, I could give them the ball on the 1 foot line but I'm worried they'll drive to get a FG and win".
No doubt...but I don't think that was his mindset...and I use "mindset" in the most liberal sense.
I think it was a fear based decision about what would happen if they failed to score rather than an aggressive one.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:04 pm to Tiger Ree
quote:
Your long post did not mention the ND FG kicker.
Based on his kicking 46 and 49 yard field goals in the game, makes your only two options of either a "win" or go to "OT" not "statistically likely outcomes" at all.
both stances have points.
i just know for sure had O went for the td and failed and let ND beat us with a fg, he would be getting destroyed far more than he is now.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:06 pm to Alt26
quote:
Also, could you imagine this place if O passes on the go-ahead FG from inside the ND one, fails to score on 4th down and ND wins late with a FG? This place would have been apoplectic! The mantra would have been you NEVER pass up points to take a lead late in a tie game
thats my thinking too.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:11 pm to Tiger Ree
quote:
You wouldn't know a scared coach move if you saw one
I did see one...and that was it.
quote:
It was a move that should have won the game or at least gotten the game to OT.
And yet, it was still the pussiest call possible in that scenario. You're telling me that in a meaningless bowl game you would not have preferred to have him tell his offense he trusted them to gain an inch and go up 7 with 2 minutes left?
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:14 pm to Southcoast
we're coming
down to the one inch line and then we're kicking a field goal
down to the one inch line and then we're kicking a field goal
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:16 pm to Southcoast
does the OP realize there are other play options besides running up the middle?
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:18 pm to Tiger Ree
quote:
Based on his kicking 46 and 49 yard field goals in the game, makes your only two options of either a "win" or go to "OT" not "statistically likely outcomes" at all.
Um. If you're going to argue that the typical coach, upon getting the ball on the 1 foot line while tied and looking at OT.........starts slinging that bitch around...........you're out of your gourd.
Those were the statistically likely outcomes.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:18 pm to BayouCowboy
quote:
Run - we were getting very little movement on the OL and had already been stuffed on a previous drive as well as 3 times on that drive. If they didn't score the fans would be merciless
Maybe but that doesn't mean it wasn't the correct decision based on win probability. Again, getting stuffed 3 times doesn't mean anything other than that's what happened. There's such a thing as positive regression.
Who cares how the fans react? He should only care than he made the percentage play. You make the percentage play every time and live with the results. He didn't.
This post was edited on 1/4/18 at 2:20 pm
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:19 pm to Rickdaddy4188
quote:
i just know for sure had O went for the td and failed and let ND beat us with a fg, he would be getting destroyed far more than he is now.
Meh.
When he went for it........given the VERY valid point made about the ND kicker, I basically said, "well frick, we're going to OT at the least".
ND had moved the ball decent and all they needed was a FG. That meant they were going to come with their full offense.
You leave them on the 1 foot line and the game STILL tied? Yeah. That ain't going to be the FULL offense coming at you.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:21 pm to GeauxTigerTM
quote:
You're telling me that in a meaningless bowl game you would not have preferred to have him tell his offense he trusted them to gain an inch and go up 7 with 2 minutes left?
Yes I am.
I was pulling for a win over Notre Dame. I don't care if it was a spring practice scrimmage against them. And really didn't care about what he was telling his offense. I'm sure they would have rather had a win also.
I was very happy with the made FG leading ND by 3 points with 2:03 on the clock and them only having one timeout and Dave Aranda standing on the LSU sideline.
I figured the worst possible outcome at that time was OT. It didn't turn out that way. After seeing the outcome I can understand why people are saying what they are but still think the call that was made at the time was the correct one.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:23 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
on the 1 foot line while tied and looking at OT.........starts slinging that bitch around
It was fourth down. They started with 1st and goal.
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