re: How do you think LSU basketball finishes the season?

However they finish, avoiding the 8-9 game is the only chance of making a run in the tourney. Beat vandy, lose to mizzou, win 1 secT game should accomplish that

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However they finish, avoiding the 8-9 game is the only chance of making a run in the tourney.

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I guess it depends on what is considered a "run"

Eight seeds have made 6 Final Four appearances. That is MORE than 7, 9, 10, 11 seeds. The same amount as 6 seeds. And only 2 less than #5 seeds.

The burden of an 8 seed is that your first round game is against a team equally as good. 8 seeds only have a 52% winning % in the opening round. Then, if you win you are 99% likely to face a #1 seed. In those games 8 seeds have only won 20% of the time. But.....

If you can slay the dragon (1 seed) early something magical happens. 8 seeds have WINNING records vs. 4, 5, AND 2 seeds (the most likely opponents in the second week). To the contrary, 7, 10, and 11 seeds (while slightly more likely to get out of the first weekend) have LOSING records vs. 2, 3, and 1 seeds (the most likely opponents in the second week)

So if a "run" is simply just making it out of the first weekend then you're right. Avoiding the 8/9 matchup is a more probable path for that kind of "run". But, if you want to think bigger, statistically being an 8 seed is better.

It is NEVER a high probability of beating a #1 seed in the 2nd round. They are, of course, one of the four best teams in the nation. But there might be a little advantage to catching that #1 on one day's rest with virtually no time to scout you.

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Eight seeds have made 6 Final Four appearances. That is MORE than 7, 9, 10, 11 seeds. The same amount as 6 seeds. And only 2 less than #5 seeds.

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Have you watched any of this years 1 seeds play?

Beat Vandy, lose to Missouri, depends on draw for tournament and how many byes we get

Split next 2
Hopefully win 1 in Nashville
9/10 seed
Win a tournament game

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Have you watched any of this years 1 seeds play?

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Ohio St. has just lost three straight games. Baylor was thumped by Kansas this weekend. And that was after the survived a game, at home, vs a 2-18 Iowa St. team. Michigan has looked tremendous. But it has come ALL against Big 10 teams. They won't have that conference familiarity in the NCAAT.

It is never a "good bet" to think a 8/9 seed will upset a one. But recently we've see unbeatable #1 seeds either lose or get a big scare from the 8/9 line.

In 2019 Duke was the number 1 overall seed. It took #9 UCF missing a tip in for them to survive the first weekend.

In 2018 UVA was the No. 1 overall seed...they became a part of history by being the first to lose to a 16

In 2017 Villanova was the No. 1 overall seed. They lost to #8 Wisconsin.

In 2015 NC St. (after barely surviving against LSU) beat #1 Villanova.

In 2014 Wichita St. was 35-0. They lost to a talented, but inconsistent, #8 Kentucky team that went 5-5 to end the reg season/SECT.

In 2013 Gonzaga was 31-2. They lost to #9 Wichita St.

If you are keeping score at home that means in FIVE of the last seven NCAAT we've had at least one No. 1 seed did not make it past second round. Am I saying 8/9 seeded LSU would beat a No. 1 seed? Of course not. But it is also not out of the realm of possibility.

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Likely 1’s are Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, and Illinois

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Probably.

Illinois has stepped out of the Big 10 three times (of significant note) and is 1-2 in those games with losses to Missouri and Baylor. They had their first game vs. Michigan postponed and lost to OSU. Whether or not they'll be a No. 1 will be decided this week when they play Michigan and OSU.

Are they (and Gonzga, Baylor, Michigan) better teams than LSU? No question. But all it takes is one night. One night where LSU's offense is humming. One night where they actually give a shite about defending (like they did for 39 minutes vs. TTU). Likely? No. Impossible? Nope

Close loss vs. Vanderbilt.
Blow-out loss @ Missouri.
Close loss in first round of SEC Tournament.
Prior to Selection Sunday, LSU announces a self-imposed ban on postseason participation for LSU basketball.

0 for how many we play. We done.....

Yeah this was a great team on paper, not so much on the court.