re: Florida is a 1.5 pt favorite

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Yes, Florida's shooting was way over its head.

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Recency bias. They really didn't shoot it THAT well (46% overall 37% from 3). They just shot it really well LATE (particularly in OT). They were 8/10 from the 3:00 mark (at which LSU led) through the latter part of OT until LSU had to star fouling.

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The Tigers do need to rebound better. No way that Florida should grab so many offensive rebounds this time around.

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LSU outrebounded UF on the offensive glass. Again, though, UF rose to the occasion late grabbing 5 of their 15 offensive rebounds in the last 5 minutes of regulation and OT.

Where LSU got beat badly was points off TO's. Both teams had 14 for the game. But while UF scored 21 points off of turnovers, LSU was only able to manage 7. Also, while LSU dominated the offensive glass in the 1st half (10-5), they didn't take advantage. The 2nd chance points were 7 to 7 at HT. Finally, LSU missed 9 layups/dunks (6 in he first half)

Honestly, LSU more or less played the same game they have generally won this season. They won the rebounding battle (particularly offensive rebounds); They got to the FT line a ton and and made more than their opponent shot. They forced about the same number of TO's they usually force. They didn't play great defense, but until about 3:00 to go in the second half they had really locked UF down all second half (something LSU has done on several occasions this year)

Unfortunately, IMO, three things made the difference:

1. They shot a lower FT% than their average. Even just one or two more makes wins the game

2. They missed a few more easy shots at the rim that they usually convert. Again, one or two more makes wins the game

3. UF did a good job getting back on defense when LSU forced a TO. UF limited the damage from their mistakes while LSU didn't.

It wasn't the "arse kicking" everyone seems to think it was. It was simply just a frustrating loss because LSU never got in any sort of rhythm. Thus, LSU LOOKED like they were playing worse than they actually did. When you walk a tight rope (as LSU has many time this season) the margin for error is low. UF just made more plays at the end of the game.

Just bet this game. Lets GGGGGGEEEEEEEAAAAUUUUUXXXXXXX BAWS!

Get ready for the worst officiated game of the year. If Vegas can’t even hide it the fix is in and everyone knows it.