Big win for the Tigers in Vegas against a solid St. Mary's. Per usual, LSU tried to squander their lead late, but held on. Overall, especially in the 2nd half, the Tigers played one Hell of a game.

About Furman

The Furman Paladins are out of the Southern Conference and come into play at 12-0. They defeated Villanova early in the year on the road, and Loyola-Chicago on the road. Other than that, they have played virtually no one with a pulse. Personally, I don't take much stock in either of their "big time" wins as both programs were coming off of massive tournament runs and their teams aren't what they were last year.

With that said, no matter who you are, if you're 12-0 at this point in the season, you have a strong identity, know who you are, and compete. I will get into the stats later.

Projected Lineups
LSU
Honestly, Coach Will Wade has deployed many different starting lineups. Daryl Edwards for sure won't play, other than that, literally anyone can play.

Furman
F Matt Rafferty- SR 6'8 215 17.2ppg, 9.7rpg, 4.6apg, 66% FG%
F Clay Mounce- SO 6'7 200 12.9ppg, 6.8rpg, 47% from 3
F Noah Gurley- FR 6'8 190 9.3ppg, 4.0rpg
G Jordan Lyons- JR 5'11 203 18.2ppg (Pure Scorer)
G Alex Hunter- 8.8ppg, 4.0rpg, 4.1apg

Bench:
G Tre Clark- So 6'5 194 5.4ppg, 3.6rpg
G Mike Bothwell- 6'3 187 4.1ppg
G Andrew Brown- SR 6'2 212

A few things stand WAYYYYY out about Furman. They're extremely NOT deep. They do NOT have size except for Rafferty. Gurley has decent height but is very thin. Mounce is an athletic player, but he also doesn't have beef. Lyons averages 11.8 3's attempted per game...let me say that again: JORDAN LYONS ATTEMPTS NEARLY 12 3'S PER GAME. Overall, he is averaging 16 shots per game, so 66% of his shots are 3's.

Rafferty is a great player. He leads their team in points AND assists as their big man. Rafferty and Lyons love to play an inside out game. I'm still a little suspect because they played some teams that were absolutely forced to double Rafferty, and he's such a special passer that the Paladins seem to end up with wide open 3's afterwards.

STATISTICS
Furman
Offense
PPG: 80.1 (42nd nationally)
FG%: 47.6% (51st nationally)
3P%: 36.4% (87th nationally)
2P%: 56.3% (39th nationally)
ORPG: 9.0 (138th nationally)
APG: 17.7 (13th nationally)
TO: 13.1 (136th nationally)
Asst/To: 1.347 (33rd nationally)
Offensive Efficiency: 1.077 (64th nationally)

Defense
PPG: 67.4 (70th nationally)
FG%: 40.5% (61st nationally)
3P%: 32.6% (125th nationally)
2P%: 45.9% (57th nationally)
RPG: 40.9 (20th nationally)
SPG: 8.8 (14th nationally)
BPG: 5.0 (33rd nationally)
OTO: 14.2 (129th nationally)
Defensive Efficiency: .907 (42nd nationally)

What The Stats Say

The above stats do not include Furman's 2 Division II opponents.

In my opinion, Furman's stats are a bit skewed. Just using the Villanova game as reference, Nova went 14 for 44 from 3. At that time in the year, Nova was hoisting up 3's like it was nobody's business. They've since changed their approach a bit and have been better. It skewed FG% stats and rebounding stats. Obviously, playing 9 other games things round out a bit, but they still have an effect. Also, Loyola-Chicago went 3 for 20 for 15%.

This should not take away from what Furman is able to do. They play sound defense, rebound very well, create turnovers, and are pretty efficient. Furman does little exceptionally well, but many things good, and nothing badly. If you notice, they have several guys that rebound decently with 1 that rebounds well and 1 that rebounds exceptionally well. This is a game that our guards MUST HELP OUT ON THE BOARDS. In my opinion, we lost the Houston game because Waters, Smart, and Mays did not help out with rebounds and left our bigs out to dry. If they don't concentrate on blocking out, and they want to get easy run outs, this has a Houston type feel to it.

Prediction

These teams really do have similar stats. LSU has the advantage in the offensive categories but not by much, and Furman on defense but actually not by much. It's hard to think that Furman, as a Top 25 team, will come into the PMAC and win this game. I think Loyola is an average team, and although a solid win on the road, we shouldn't be in awe of it. Villanova has a great program, but they aren't winning a national championship this year. I think they massively overlooked Furman, and did not have a team identity yet.

Furman is controlled by Rafferty in the post rebounding and grinding, and Lyons jacking up 3's. It sounds easy, but you just cannot leave Lyons, force others to beat you, and get a body on Rafferty. Rafferty is an excellent player, but listen...guys like Reid and Bigby-Williams combined with Emmitt should NOT let this guy get 10 rebounds. I am hoping that our team will have some pride at some point. I would love to see Naz decide that the guy he's guarding will be shut down. I think it will happen at some point, but it may be later in SEC play when he realizes how big the games are situations are.

LSU will NOT overlook this team. We bounced back nicely against St Mary's, and I think this team will continue to grow and get better. Obviously we have areas we need to improve, but there is not a single team that does not need to get better. Duke was down in the 2nd half tonight, Auburn went to OT with UAB, Houston was down by double digits to Utah State...we are one third through the season. Don't give up on this team. They're young, but they have potential. I agree, super frustrating at times, but we have some potential and could still make noise. A little drunk when I did this preview, so I hope it doesn't suck too bad. I'll be in Philadelphia for the holidays so won't make it down, but I desperately hope the PMAC is rocking tomorrow night! GEAUX TIGAHSSS

LSU 76
Furman 66

This post was edited on 12/21/18 at 8:54 pm