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Does anyone else think the -6 line is a little strange?....
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:08 am
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:08 am
LSU is 9-1-2 vs the spread and Vegas's most recent line for TAM was -17 which LSU obviously obliterated.
Typically when a team keeps covering (OSU or Clemson for example) they will push the number in these games. Outside bama, I believe -6 is the closest spread this year.
There is a matchup/factor that Vegas views as unfavorable for LSU. Im assuming the intangibles (GA playing in GA for a playoff spot and probably a revenge factor) and/or they think GA can run on this defense...? IF GA stays on the field and can chew clock they will shorten the game.
GA did keep a great offense (2nd best in SEC history) in check during this same game last yr, but obviously that offense didn't have Burrow.
Typically when a team keeps covering (OSU or Clemson for example) they will push the number in these games. Outside bama, I believe -6 is the closest spread this year.
There is a matchup/factor that Vegas views as unfavorable for LSU. Im assuming the intangibles (GA playing in GA for a playoff spot and probably a revenge factor) and/or they think GA can run on this defense...? IF GA stays on the field and can chew clock they will shorten the game.
GA did keep a great offense (2nd best in SEC history) in check during this same game last yr, but obviously that offense didn't have Burrow.
25
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:09 am to geauxdroddz
Are they giving Georgia basically “home field” consideration and factoring that in accordingly?
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:10 am to geauxdroddz
I think it’s low. LSU by 20 minimum. We’re firing on all cylinders now.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:10 am to geauxdroddz
It's definitely surprising. Georgia's offense hasn't exactly been great this season, and now they're without Cager for the entire game and Pickens for the first half. Yet the line is still only -6.
A lot of people must feel that Georgia's defense is going to slow us down.
A lot of people must feel that Georgia's defense is going to slow us down.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:11 am to geauxdroddz
It's that the SEC refs are going to be told to punish LSU with infraction penalties at the worst moments in order to give GA a fighting chance so that the SEC gets two teams in the playoffs.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:13 am to geauxdroddz
SEC champ games just tend to be tight.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:14 am to geauxdroddz
Their defense hasn't allowed more than 17 points in a game this season. Obviously they havent played an offense as legit as ours but they are probably assuming they keep it close with defense and couple that with home field advantage. The spread makes sense statistically and against all of the ranked opponents we've faced we beat..
Auburn by 3(@ home) and Florida by 14 (@ home) and Alabama by 5 (away).
-6 spread seems reasonable
Auburn by 3(@ home) and Florida by 14 (@ home) and Alabama by 5 (away).
-6 spread seems reasonable
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:15 am to geauxdroddz
I thought it was low too considering we are much better in 2019 and we beat the dog shite out of them last year.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:16 am to geauxdroddz
quote:
GA did keep a great offense (2nd best in SEC history) in check during this same game last yr, but obviously that offense didn't have Burrow.
Who was LSU's QB in that game, then?
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:16 am to geauxdroddz
Home field for Georgia and they are 11-1?
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:17 am to geauxdroddz
That number begs a ton of cash on LSU. That us usually a bad sign, VW?FD
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:18 am to SBC
quote:I just go back to last year. We are better, they are worse. Even if you give a few points for the Dome...I just cant see UGA staying in this game.
Home field for Georgia and they are 11-1?
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:20 am to geauxdroddz
Our offense on that fast track, gonna be good.
Just hide and watch.
Just hide and watch.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:21 am to Cs
quote:
Yet the line is still only -6.
A lot of people must feel that Georgia's defense is going to slow us down.
I feel like the only way to slow down this offense is for GA to rush only 3 or 4, contain the edge and get a good push up the middle. That is the way defenses beat Tom Brady, Drew Brees or any good elite pocket passer in the NFL and I feel like it's the only way the Burrow can be limited to executing this passing offense. That is easier said than done because Cushenberry and the interior lineman have been playing lights out. The way Coaches E and B will counter good DL play is running the ball right at them when the safeties back off in a cover one.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:22 am to geauxdroddz
Implied LSU total is 31. I think that will be enough for LSU to win comfortably with Cager out, Pickens first half suspension and Swift may not be 100%
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:23 am to GumboPot
quote:Early in the year, maybe. But do it now and Clyde will feast.
I feel like the only way to slow down this offense is for GA to rush only 3 or 4, contain the edge and get a good push up the middle.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:25 am to geauxdroddz
Georgia has arguably the best defense in the country. They will try to make this game ugly because that benefits them.
I think we'll see them play bend but not break and try to keep everything in front of them. I doubt we get many big plays, so Joe will have to take what they give us and dink and dunk down the field.
It all comes down to our ability to stop Swift I think. He's one talented running back.
I think we'll see them play bend but not break and try to keep everything in front of them. I doubt we get many big plays, so Joe will have to take what they give us and dink and dunk down the field.
It all comes down to our ability to stop Swift I think. He's one talented running back.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:27 am to geauxdroddz
We should cover this. Swift is coming in injured, and Pickens out for the first half. Our DB's were more than a match for Fromm and co. last year. I don't expect that to change, and even with their tough run D, I don't see them keeping up with our receivers.
Hopefully it's not close enough for any tomfoolery from the refs to make a difference!
Hopefully it's not close enough for any tomfoolery from the refs to make a difference!
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:28 am to geauxdroddz
the line opened at -3.5 but was quickly obliterated and moved to -6.5 on most books. I wish I had seen the -3.5, would currently have my house on the line
Posted on 12/2/19 at 9:29 am to geauxdroddz
I see it -6.5 to -7 with an O/U of 55.5.
That says LSU wins 31-24.
They think Georgia can grind out some scoring drives, keeping Joe and co on the bench, but we still score enough to win. IMO it's honestly Georgia's best case scenario. It's similar to the Florida game. If we can get a turnover or a couple big stops, we can get 40+.
That says LSU wins 31-24.
They think Georgia can grind out some scoring drives, keeping Joe and co on the bench, but we still score enough to win. IMO it's honestly Georgia's best case scenario. It's similar to the Florida game. If we can get a turnover or a couple big stops, we can get 40+.
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