College Football News Prediction: Bama 27 LSU 17

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Why LSU Will Win

Take the Tennessee game with a grain of salt – Alabama looked tired and in desperate need of a week off – but the Vols got physical up front and did a fantastic job at collapsing the inside defensively and keeping Derrick Henry in check. It didn’t work late on a key drive, but with plenty of time to prepare, the nation’s No. 6 run defense should be able to load up and force Henry to become an East-West runner – that’s not going to work for the Tide offense.

Auburn ran for 160 yards on the LSU D – that’s the best day anyone has had so far running the ball. Florida’s power running game was stuffed for 55 yards, Mississippi State couldn’t go anywhere, and South Carolina was spinning its wheels. Far easier said than done, but take away Henry, make Jake Coker test out the dangerous LSU secondary, and take your chances. It almost worked last year – keeping Alabama to 106 yards on the ground – but Blake Sims came through.

Why Alabama Will Win

Leonard Fournette, meet the Alabama defensive front three.

Fournette might be the best player in college football, and he might be one of the ten best backs in the NFL right now – and that might be way low – but Alabama has had two weeks to figure out how to gang up on No. 7. Third in the nation against the run, the Crimson Tide allowed one big Nick Chubb run when Georgia was hopelessly out of the game, and that’s been about it. Wisconsin – 40 yards. Arkansas – 44 yards. Texas A&M – 25 carries for 32 yards. This is the best front three in the Nick Saban era, and the linebackers are benefiting with Reggie Ragland and company teeing off. If LSU is going to win this game, it’s going to have to do it through the air.

Brandon Harris has been terrific and the LSU passing game is vastly improved – coming up with 200 yards or more in each of the last three games with seven touchdown passes – but can it work on the road? Harris was excellent against Florida and its fabulous secondary, but Fournette also ran for 31 times. LSU can’t count on that this time around on the ground. And unlike Florida, Alabama isn’t going to fall for the banana in the tailpipe trick play.

What’s Going To Happen?

Alabama’s defense is better, and that’s it. That’s the difference. The front seven will contain Fournette – but not stop him cold – and while Harris won’t collapse, he won’t be the playmaker and passer he’s been over the last few games. The LSU placekicking has been better, and that might influence the offensive strategy just a bit. It’s not like Les Miles is ever conservative, but he’ll take points where he can get them on the road against this D, while Alabama might have to press just a little more in the red zone. Coker will hit one big throw on one big late drive, and the Crimson Tide will pull away in an impressive, statement-game performance.

Final Score: Alabama 27, LSU 17

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