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Message
re: Boyd's World RPI Needs Report: Update on 5/14 *see notes in OP
Posted on 5/10/17 at 10:39 am to ell_13
Posted on 5/10/17 at 10:39 am to ell_13
quote:
There is now no scenario for LSU to finish with a top 8 RPI
Who cares. The committee will give you a national seed if you with the SEC and do well in the tourney.
Posted on 5/10/17 at 10:39 am to barry
quote:
The committee will give you a national seed if you with the SEC
which at this point we dont control.
Posted on 5/10/17 at 10:51 am to ell_13
Just looked at RPI on NCAA.com. You don't need a top 8 RPI to get a national seed this year.
The ACC has 4 of the top 8, including 7 & 8. No way they give 7 & 8 a national seed and give them half the national seeds.
Those two seeds instead would most likely go to an SEC team and a Pac 12 team (or MO State).
LSU needs to pass up Kentucky and State to get the potential 2nd SEC national seed. LSU would need to take care of their business and catch State in the West and win the SEC Tournament, AND have the wheels fall off Kentucky for that to happen.
That's a tall order.
The ACC has 4 of the top 8, including 7 & 8. No way they give 7 & 8 a national seed and give them half the national seeds.
Those two seeds instead would most likely go to an SEC team and a Pac 12 team (or MO State).
LSU needs to pass up Kentucky and State to get the potential 2nd SEC national seed. LSU would need to take care of their business and catch State in the West and win the SEC Tournament, AND have the wheels fall off Kentucky for that to happen.
That's a tall order.
Posted on 5/10/17 at 10:55 am to ell_13
Should have pulled a Bama and cancelled our midweek games
Posted on 5/10/17 at 11:25 am to lsutigers1992
I've said since weeks ago there's no non power 5 team this year that's going to threaten for a national seed which is good news. (Missouri St. can't host do to stadium being used that weekend if I'm still correct)
The Big Ten won't come close to a national seed.
The ACC is extremely top heavy per usual and will get minimum of 3....maybe 4 at max but that's too early to tell.
The Pac 12 will get 1 in Oregon St. for sure. Stanford and Arizona slightly just on the outside for now. Stanford plays an extremely easy conference schedule to round out but it won't do their RPI much favors even if they win, Arizona is in the same boat.
The Big 12 almost has their 2 spots locked in with TCU and Texas Tech who have stayed in that sweet spot much of the season.
Then leaves the SEC and personally I don't think Florida let's go of this spot due to their strong SOS and RPI right now. They'll hold this spot unless they lose the series to Alabama.
That leaves Kentucky, Miss St., LSU, and Arkansas as serious threats from the SEC IF they end up at 20 wins and win their division.
The Big Ten won't come close to a national seed.
The ACC is extremely top heavy per usual and will get minimum of 3....maybe 4 at max but that's too early to tell.
The Pac 12 will get 1 in Oregon St. for sure. Stanford and Arizona slightly just on the outside for now. Stanford plays an extremely easy conference schedule to round out but it won't do their RPI much favors even if they win, Arizona is in the same boat.
The Big 12 almost has their 2 spots locked in with TCU and Texas Tech who have stayed in that sweet spot much of the season.
Then leaves the SEC and personally I don't think Florida let's go of this spot due to their strong SOS and RPI right now. They'll hold this spot unless they lose the series to Alabama.
That leaves Kentucky, Miss St., LSU, and Arkansas as serious threats from the SEC IF they end up at 20 wins and win their division.
This post was edited on 5/10/17 at 11:28 am
Posted on 5/10/17 at 11:29 am to Adam4848
quote:UF plays Bama at Bama so they'll get bonuses for wins. It'll keep their RPI where it is. And then they get UK at home. That's a huge advantage. They'll get a national seed easily.
I don't think Florida let's go of this spot due to their strong SOS and RPI right now. They'll hold this spot if they win 4 of the next 6.
quote:For a national seed, I agree.
That leaves Kentucky, Miss St., LSU, and Arkansas
And as far as hosting regionals go, Auburn may have just gotten swept, but they technically aren't out of it. If they win 2 on the road this weekend, that would put them back in the top 30 RPI. A&M is 14-10 too. Vandy is 12-11 with a top 25 RPI. My point is there are still teams close enough to steal a regional host too of LSU doesn't take care of things.
Posted on 5/10/17 at 11:34 am to ell_13
quote:
My point is there are still teams close enough to steal a regional host too of LSU doesn't take care of things
No arguments at all. LSU is in control of their destiny and I hope that's what's being played out in the locker room this entire month.
Still, if they only end up at 18 wins in the SEC I think they'll host with an RPI in the mid teens. (I'm not even looking at the SEC tournament because that complicates things drastically)
If they come out and look like dog shite winning only 2 more SEC games and making a quick exit they have themselves to blame for a 2 seed.
This post was edited on 5/10/17 at 11:36 am
Posted on 5/11/17 at 10:05 am to GeismarGeauxer
Yeah but we're not gonna sweep Auburn and Miss St.
Posted on 5/11/17 at 10:18 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
If we win sec west and sec tourney we will be a super host...regardless if we have a top 8 rpi
That's far from a given. But, we'll never know for sure as we will not win the SEC West and the SEC Tournament. We'll have all kinds of problems with Auburn's pitching, and State will blister our pitchers.
Posted on 5/11/17 at 10:22 am to ell_13
still get to host the first round with 2 out of three remaining and a win in the SECt.
beat McNeese!!
rah rah.
beat McNeese!!
rah rah.
This post was edited on 5/11/17 at 10:23 am
Posted on 5/11/17 at 3:29 pm to ell_13
I determined that 2 months ago.
Posted on 5/13/17 at 7:05 am to ell_13
Updated Report suggests that LSU can now get a top 8 RPI if they win out.
Posted on 5/13/17 at 7:08 am to ell_13
Sure 13. Its not football. Winning out in sec tournament baseball means not running into any well pitched games.
Do not hold breath.
Do not hold breath.
Posted on 5/13/17 at 7:19 am to ell_13
i wonder if it's accurate. If you look at Clemson, they can go 3-4 in their last 7 games and only drop from a 7 RPI to an 8 RPI.
It actually looks like they already lost the first one of their remaining 7 games but they stayed at 7. So maybe it's right?
It actually looks like they already lost the first one of their remaining 7 games but they stayed at 7. So maybe it's right?
This post was edited on 5/13/17 at 7:22 am
Posted on 5/13/17 at 7:24 am to diehard24
It's just not perfect because it doesn't account for opponents' win % changes. It only looks at current RPIs and how winning/losing vs remaining teams would change things. What's still holding LSU down is a home game vs the #225 RPI team. Also, Auburn is down to #45. What helped LSU was Arizona and Wake Forest dropping like a rock.
This post was edited on 5/13/17 at 7:25 am
Posted on 5/13/17 at 7:33 am to ell_13
This is why shite like this is so pointless. Certainty based on uncertainty is absurd guessing. The statement "there is now no scenario" is utter bullshite and I'm calling you on it
Posted on 5/13/17 at 7:37 am to jlbasm
Even the statement "must win out" is crap... who's to say the top eight currently don't shite the bed... get outta here with this. Bottom line we get hot we get top 8. We play mediocre we don't. I don't need some asshat prognosticator to try to statistically tell me what is visually obvious.
Posted on 5/13/17 at 7:39 am to jlbasm
What about the OP and the notes I've had from the beginning indicate that I was "certain" our RPI couldn't reach the top 8? Hell, before and after this post I still claimed it was possible mostly because of the SECT which this doesn't (and can't) account for.
Posted on 5/13/17 at 7:41 am to jlbasm
Do you apply this same logic to rankings? Because they're no different.
And that's another point I made, too 8 RPI doesn't guarantee top 8 seed. This isn't an opinion thread. It's an info/discussion thread.
And that's another point I made, too 8 RPI doesn't guarantee top 8 seed. This isn't an opinion thread. It's an info/discussion thread.
Posted on 5/13/17 at 7:41 am to ell_13
My point is why a statement "there is now no scenario" followed by caveats and updates stating there are plenty... just say hey boys it's not looking good and be done with it
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