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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:16 am to lsumatt
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:16 am to lsumatt
quote:if you have three teams that all beat each other, you will have one team ranked higher than a team it lost to.
But I still disagree. I doubt Arky is above Bama when they lost by 24
That being said, if LSU's loss to Arkansas is close, LSU should get the benefit of the doubt due to its stronger schedule than the other teams.
1
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:19 am to Chicken
quote:
if you have three teams that all beat each other, you will have one team ranked higher than a team it lost to.
Of course, but assuming that the LSU game is at least close, that 24 point win is going to stick out.
Bama would have the best win between the three, LSU would have the most impressive resume. It is really hard for me to believe Arky overcomes all of this to convince voters to put them #1 and overcome what should be a computer deficit (at least to LSU).
Note: I am pretty sure we would WANT bama to be ranked ahead of us in the human polls!
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:19 am to lsumatt
Lsumatt, my name is Matt as well, so kudos on the user name. I nominate you to replace brad Edwards. Also Robert smith is a douche. He just said Alabama is guaranteed a spot in the nc if they beat auburn. I don't see it that way if okie state beats Oklahoma.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:32 am to Weaver
quote:Are you okay? OSU just loses to an unranked 6-4 ISU and Oklahoma is gonna get jumped after that fiasco with a previously unranked Baylor/USA Today Poll the Math doesn't add up here maybe this will make you feel better
Bama looks to be in good shape but I still think OSU can pass them with a win over Oklahoma
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:34 am to The Les Miles Bowl
quote:
Are you okay? OSU just loses to an unranked 6-4 ISU and Oklahoma is gonna get jumped after that fiasco with a previously unranked Baylor/USA Today Poll the Math doesn't add up
Oklahoma St's computer score would be better than Bama's and when push comes to shove, voters may still decide to avoid the rematch
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:39 am to lsumatt
It doesn't matter Matt the BCS is computed using 2/3 human formula OSU along with others are gonna take a huge tumble in the Polls and I would think the computers also
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:45 am to Geaux2002
quote:
Likely Colley Matrix top 6:
1. LSU(11-0).............0.98148
2. Oklahoma St(10-1).....0.95492
3. Alabama(9-1)..........0.90894
4. Oklahoma(8-2).........0.87392
5. Kansas St(9-2)........0.85923
6. Arkansas(10-1)........0.84760
Likely Billingsley top 6:
1. LSU (11-0)............353.0
2. Oklahoma St(10-1).....325.0
3. Alabama (10-1)........309.7
4. Stanford (10-1).......304.0
5. Oregon (9-2)..........300.0
6. Arkansas (10-1).......296.0
Top in Sagarin rankings likely goes:
1. LSU
2. Oklahoma State
3. Alabama
4/5. Arkansas/Kansas State (close)
6. Oregon/Baylor
Peter Wolfe likely looks like:
1. LSU
2. OSU
3. Bama
4. Arky
5. KSU
6. Oregon
you do realize Okie state lost to a horrible iowa state team right??? now way they dont fall..Hell, bama fell one spot and that was to the number 1 team in the country..You rantards make me laugh
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:53 am to Hook Em Horns
quote:
you do realize Okie state lost to a horrible iowa state team right??? now way they dont fall..Hell, bama fell one spot and that was to the number 1 team in the country..You rantards make me laugh
I am sure we use actually math and logic. The computers have oklahoma State as one of the toughest schedules in the country. The computers are very high on OSU and on the Big 12 in general.
I have written a computer program to reproduce the Colley Matrix. Have you?
For the most part, those computer predictions are accurate.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:54 am to Hook Em Horns
Good work Matt, this thread is going to be bookmarked to point and laugh at all the people who do not understand the BCS.
I actually told some people that if OU/Okie St. were to both only have 1 loss, LSU would most likely play the winner in the BCSCG, on Saturday morning, before all the madness. The Big 12 Computer scores combined with a split vote between people who want to see a rematch and those who don't will push OSU to the title game if they win the Big 12. I am so convinced of this, as I have been doing BCS Projections for myself ever since the 2003 fiasco, that I went ahead and bought 6 ticket reservations for Oklahoma State on the ticket reserve last night when it looked like Oregon was going down (at halftime).
My prediction on friday night AFTER OSU loss.
I actually told some people that if OU/Okie St. were to both only have 1 loss, LSU would most likely play the winner in the BCSCG, on Saturday morning, before all the madness. The Big 12 Computer scores combined with a split vote between people who want to see a rematch and those who don't will push OSU to the title game if they win the Big 12. I am so convinced of this, as I have been doing BCS Projections for myself ever since the 2003 fiasco, that I went ahead and bought 6 ticket reservations for Oklahoma State on the ticket reserve last night when it looked like Oregon was going down (at halftime).
My prediction on friday night AFTER OSU loss.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:59 am to The Les Miles Bowl
quote:
It doesn't matter Matt the BCS is computed using 2/3 human formula OSU along with others are gonna take a huge tumble in the Polls and I would think the computers also
I bet you that the human polls aren't going to punish OSU as much as you think they will. And like lsumatt (and the recently released Sagarin rankings) have already stated, the computers love OSU.
I'm really thinking that OSU will be BCS #3 tonight.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:59 am to lsumatt
quote:I'm using Math and logic are you? The Math is the BCS computation 2/3 Human Polls 1/3 Computer the logic is in the formula..You might want to rewrite your program.
Colley Matrix would be proud
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:05 am to lsumatt
The SEC Rant is in meltdown mode from incredulous Gump fans who are in total denial that OSU will jump them with a win over OU.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:07 am to The Les Miles Bowl
Les Miles Bowl, you're playing with the wrong crowd. check your post count and lsumatt's ... and be careful. We 
lsumatt around here.
lsumatt, will you be able to go to the game this time around if we make it? bought OSU reserves and this time I'm not telling my husband. I WILL surprise him this year!!!
lsumatt around here. lsumatt, will you be able to go to the game this time around if we make it?
bought OSU reserves and this time I'm not telling my husband. I WILL surprise him this year!!!This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 11:08 am
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:08 am to DogDoc
quote:Bump..Lol
The SEC Rant is in denial
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:09 am to The Les Miles Bowl
quote:
The Les Miles Bowl
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:10 am to The Les Miles Bowl
quote:
I'm using Math and logic are you? The Math is the BCS computation 2/3 Human Polls 1/3 Computer the logic is in the formula..You might want to rewrite your program.
My response was to you and I don't know what your point is. But:
1. Ok State's computer ranking will still be very high. If you don't believe this, you don't know what you are talking about
2. Ok State's human polls will tumble this week. As a result they will fall to either 3 or 4 in the BCS.
3. I think Ok State's computer score and the fact they would have won their conference with a win over OU will make it interesting with Bama in 2 weeks.
4. My Colley matrix code is right. Always has been. Is yours?
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:12 am to lsumatt
coaches poll has state at #6..they've got some ground to make up now. didn't think they'd fall that far tbh
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:12 am to tiger91
quote:
lsumatt, will you be able to go to the game this time around if we make it?
I have an important 8:00 am meeting in Austin the next day. Not looking good at the moment.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:12 am to lsumatt
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:13 am to The Les Miles Bowl
quote:I'll wear no man's crown..Lol I love LSUMatt to I just love Math better..Lol
The Les Miles Bowl you are playing with the wrong crown
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