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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:07 am to LSUAlum2001
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:07 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Road win for Arkansas over us would drop us to a tie with Arkansas in the CPUs at best.
Based on what? Unless a bunch of games go poorly next week, this is very unlikely
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 12:09 am
1
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:09 am to drizztiger
All of these possible scenarios are giving me a headache thinkin about them. It really doesn't matter that much to me as long as LSU wins out, as long as Bama isn't in the game without winning their conference, even their division.
If this season doesn't scream playoff, I don't know what else it would take.
If this season doesn't scream playoff, I don't know what else it would take.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:12 am to lsumatt
quote:And as much as the media (some voters) hype up the drama, they wanted this power after 2003. LSU-OU v. LSU-USC.
it just seems unlikely voters would ever put Arkansas above a Bama team that beat them by 24
In 2007 they sat back, thought about it and jumped LSU up 4 spots to #2. (Think that's accurate)
This season is no different except after 11 games LSU is unanimous #1 in Harris and Coaches and will be in computers (were not prior to OSU loss).
Computers will now continue to love LSU and voters will take their charge.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:12 am to Captain Want
Nobody is beating us. Nobody. fixed it.
Bring Bama back if they want too. I like our team.
Bring Bama back if they want too. I like our team.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:12 am to lsumatt
Ok St loses and falls one sot in the BCS. Sounds familiar. Okie state did lose on the road. That counts for something (And in OT Too!)
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:13 am to lsumatt
Matt, thanks for all your hard work and thoughtful opinions. Remember for every one goofball prediction based on emotion or whatever there are hundreds of considered opinions who appreciate your sound reasoning.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:18 am to lsumatt
What if Va Tech wins out? I understand that the ACC is waaay down, but they would be a one loss conf champ who did something none of the other 1 loss champs did, avenge their only loss (Clemson). The unpredictable thing is that while the human polls from week to week during the season are basically reactionary from that particular week's results, the final reg season poll seems to be where the voters truly evaluate each teams "full body" of work (see LSU in 2007). Is it unrealistic to see the final human polls as LSU #1, Va Tech #2 OSU #3. Bama #4? (2 of those would be conf champs) I just look at 2007 when LSU jumped from #7 over UGA who started the day as #4.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:19 am to GeauxDT
quote:
All of these possible scenarios are giving me a headache thinkin about them. It really doesn't matter that much to me as long as LSU wins out, as long as Bama isn't in the game without winning their conference, even their division.
If this season doesn't scream playoff, I don't know what else it would take.
What will scream playoff would be lsu losing to ark the season ending with
1.bama
2 ark
3 lsu
and the other confs being shut out of the title game b/c 3 tops teams only lost to each other....
that would end the bcs
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:21 am to Alt26
quote:Most likely doesnt matter.
What if Va Tech wins out?
quote:Which is why LSU is on good shape regardless and VT is not. Plus CPUs
the final reg season poll seems to be where the voters truly evaluate each teams "full body" of work
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:23 am to drizztiger
Matt,
Question for you:
How does OSU and OU loss affect the Big12 computer conference ranking?
Question for you:
How does OSU and OU loss affect the Big12 computer conference ranking?
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:24 am to Chicken
Potential BCSCG opponents if LSU wins out:
Bama
OSU
VT
Stanford
If I were a voter choosing between multiple 1-loss teams I would use conference title winners as my tie breaker which would leave OSU and Virginia Tech(potentially)...But that's just me.
But how cool would it be if we beat bama twice in the same year to win the NT and deny them one. Braggin rights over those morons for a year would be priceless.
Bama
OSU
VT
Stanford
If I were a voter choosing between multiple 1-loss teams I would use conference title winners as my tie breaker which would leave OSU and Virginia Tech(potentially)...But that's just me.
But how cool would it be if we beat bama twice in the same year to win the NT and deny them one. Braggin rights over those morons for a year would be priceless.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:27 am to drizztiger
quote:
How does OSU and OU loss affect the Big12 computer conference ranking?
Not much, if any. Conference strength is based on how you perform Out of Conference. The Big 12 is an amazing 27-3 with some nice wins and no bad losses. A Big 12 team beating a Big 12 team doesn't make that conference stronger or weaker.
However, the computers favor teams that are "top heavy". you are are better off playing 5 9-1 teams and 5 1-9 teams than playing a bunch of 5-5 teams. So if you are Ok State and you played both TT and OU, you would rather OU hav won that game so you have elite wins on your resume.
make sense?
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:28 am to motorbreath
quote:They would still claim the NC. It's Bama.
how cool would it be if we beat bama twice in the same year to win the NT and deny them one
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:32 am to drizztiger
I agree LSU seems to be in "good" shape, but it seems like the unwritten rule has been that you have to win your conf champ to get in. The two biggest controversies were in 2001 and 2003 when two teams that didn't win their conf made it to the champ game. Potentially, we are looking at 2006 all over again. Michigan, who started the day ranked ahead of UF, ultimately got jumped with the previaling rationale that they (even though the only lost by 3 pts. to #1) were left out because they didn't win their conf.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:40 am to lsumatt
Do some of you people blowing Arky realize that their best OOC win is a 6-5 Texas A&M team?
LSU has a 7-3 WVU on the road and 9-2 Oregon at a neutral site. WKU is 6-5 too.
Arkansas has A&M (6-5), New Mexico (1-10), and Troy (3-7) and Missouri State as a shitty FCS team.
Bama will have PSU (9-2), North Texas (4-7), Kent State (5-6), and Georgia Southern (FCS).
The only advantage Arky has is USCe.
Since all have Tennessee, remove them.
The only remaining different teams are:
LSU: UF (6-5), UK (4-7)
Bama: UF (6-5), Vandy (5-6)
Arky: USCe (9-2), Vandy (5-6)
This is why LSU, even with a loss to Arky will reamin the highest of the 3 in the computers:
None common opponents records with favorites winning next week:
LSU = 35 - 24
Bama = 31 - 28
Arky = 26 - 32
All the rest will be even except Bama's win against it's one loss team will be at home, while Arky and LSU would've run on the road.
LSU has a 7-3 WVU on the road and 9-2 Oregon at a neutral site. WKU is 6-5 too.
Arkansas has A&M (6-5), New Mexico (1-10), and Troy (3-7) and Missouri State as a shitty FCS team.
Bama will have PSU (9-2), North Texas (4-7), Kent State (5-6), and Georgia Southern (FCS).
The only advantage Arky has is USCe.
Since all have Tennessee, remove them.
The only remaining different teams are:
LSU: UF (6-5), UK (4-7)
Bama: UF (6-5), Vandy (5-6)
Arky: USCe (9-2), Vandy (5-6)
This is why LSU, even with a loss to Arky will reamin the highest of the 3 in the computers:
None common opponents records with favorites winning next week:
LSU = 35 - 24
Bama = 31 - 28
Arky = 26 - 32
All the rest will be even except Bama's win against it's one loss team will be at home, while Arky and LSU would've run on the road.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:41 am to Alt26
quote:
I agree LSU seems to be in "good" shape, but it seems like the unwritten rule has been that you have to win your conf champ to get in. The two biggest controversies were in 2001 and 2003 when two teams that didn't win their conf made it to the champ game. Potentially, we are looking at 2006 all over again. Michigan, who started the day ranked ahead of UF, ultimately got jumped with the previaling rationale that they (even though the only lost by 3 pts. to #1) were left out because they didn't win their conf.
This won't be the case if OU beats OSU. If OSU wins then maybe they get in the NC game.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 12:42 am
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:42 am to Alt26
quote:It was the rematch factor as well.
Michigan, who started the day ranked ahead of UF, ultimately got jumped with the previaling rationale that they (even though the only lost by 3 pts. to #1) were left out because they didn't win their conf.
UM lost "close" but really got handled by OSU regular season. UF won "ugly" the whole year.
IMO, that's when the voters decided to take body of work and their charge. It also allowed "ugly" SEC teams to show their dominance. Remember AU got left out in 2004 (not exactly correlative), but does count.
The debate in 2006 was rematch over SEC.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:43 am to lsumatt
quote:Completely. Thanks.
make sense?
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:44 am to Geaux2002
quote:Who would that be?
Do some of you people blowing Arky
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:50 am to Alt26
This season is a lot more like 2003 than 2001 if LSU beats Arky. Their computer score at that point will be so strong, it will take a lot to not have them in the title game. Also, Their computer score will stay above Bama should they lose in the SEC CG.
It would just be that season on crack since you'd basically have 2 teams that didn't win their conference at #1 and #3 in the computers almost certainly.
It would just be that season on crack since you'd basically have 2 teams that didn't win their conference at #1 and #3 in the computers almost certainly.
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