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Posted on 6/13/18 at 10:37 am to MajorTiger
Initial impressions:
1. On it's face this is an underwhelming OOC schedule. But...
2. Wade does nothing without intensive analysis, so we know this schedule wasn't put together haphazardly.
Analyzing things a bit further,
1. Home games: It appears there are (likely) zero "Tier 1" home games (vs. RPI top 30). That's not a huge issue because most teams don't have any or many Tier 1 home games. Like in football, the "big boys" prefer to play each other on neutral sites. For example, LSU only had one T1 home game last season (Houston), and that was only because Houston exceeded even their own preseason expectations to be a really good team.
2. True Road games: LSU only has one of those (at Houston). That game COULD be a Tier 1 road game (vs. RPI top 75). Houston will likely take a step back this season relative to last season. But, Sampson is a good coach. So it is possible he can get Houston to finish in the RPI top 75.
3. Neutral site games: Tier 1 neutral site games are those vs. the RPI top 50. The good news is that St. Mary's generally finds themselves in the top 50 at the end of the year. The unknown is what will shake out in the Advocare tournament. Compared to the Maui Invitational last year (Mich, ND, Marq., Wichita St., etc.), the overall field looks weak on paper. The one "known" good team is Villanova. Even though they likely won't be National Champion level good, it's hard to see them not being a top 50 team at year's end. The problem is there is no guarantee LSU will play them. The key is FSU and Ok. St. I could see either/both being top 50 teams. But I could easily see them not being top 50 teams. Thus, the tournament could be good for LSU or it could be largely a non-factor. We'll just have to see who LSU plays and how those teams' seasons progress. However, IMO, to have any shot of that tournament really being of impact, LSU must play at least 2 games vs. the group of Villanova, FSU, OSU. Otherwise, that tournament doesn't do a ton for you.
Best case (realistic) scenario the OOC schedule gives LSU five Tier 1 opportunities (Houston, Nova, St. Mary's, OSU, FSU). If that happens, then this is a "good" OOC schedule.
Worst case (realistic) scenario is that LSU only gets one Tier 1 game out of the schedule (St. Mary's) because they miss out on playing Villanova and FSU, Houston, OSU just aren't that good.
Also, the fact that LSU isn't in the SEC/Big 12 challenge again really hurts because that is a lost opportunity at what could (perhaps would) have likely been a Tier 1 game.
Having a weak OOC schedule doesn't mean you can't make the NCAAT. It just means your margin for error in conference play is slim. For example, last season A&M (9-9)and Alabama (8-10) weren't great in SEC play. However, both made the NCAAT rather comfortably because they played great OOC schedules. Compare that to Miss. St. who had the same SEC record as A&M and better SEC record than Bama, yet missed out on the NCAAT. Why? In large part it was because their OOC schedule sucked and they beat no one of note outside of conf. play. Conversely, LSU was unexpectedly in the NCAAT conversation late in the season in no small part because they had wins vs. Michigan and Houston.
It's too early to definitively say the schedule "sucks" or the schedule is "great". IMO, on paper, it looks to be average to below average, but with a CHANCE to be good.
1. On it's face this is an underwhelming OOC schedule. But...
2. Wade does nothing without intensive analysis, so we know this schedule wasn't put together haphazardly.
Analyzing things a bit further,
1. Home games: It appears there are (likely) zero "Tier 1" home games (vs. RPI top 30). That's not a huge issue because most teams don't have any or many Tier 1 home games. Like in football, the "big boys" prefer to play each other on neutral sites. For example, LSU only had one T1 home game last season (Houston), and that was only because Houston exceeded even their own preseason expectations to be a really good team.
2. True Road games: LSU only has one of those (at Houston). That game COULD be a Tier 1 road game (vs. RPI top 75). Houston will likely take a step back this season relative to last season. But, Sampson is a good coach. So it is possible he can get Houston to finish in the RPI top 75.
3. Neutral site games: Tier 1 neutral site games are those vs. the RPI top 50. The good news is that St. Mary's generally finds themselves in the top 50 at the end of the year. The unknown is what will shake out in the Advocare tournament. Compared to the Maui Invitational last year (Mich, ND, Marq., Wichita St., etc.), the overall field looks weak on paper. The one "known" good team is Villanova. Even though they likely won't be National Champion level good, it's hard to see them not being a top 50 team at year's end. The problem is there is no guarantee LSU will play them. The key is FSU and Ok. St. I could see either/both being top 50 teams. But I could easily see them not being top 50 teams. Thus, the tournament could be good for LSU or it could be largely a non-factor. We'll just have to see who LSU plays and how those teams' seasons progress. However, IMO, to have any shot of that tournament really being of impact, LSU must play at least 2 games vs. the group of Villanova, FSU, OSU. Otherwise, that tournament doesn't do a ton for you.
Best case (realistic) scenario the OOC schedule gives LSU five Tier 1 opportunities (Houston, Nova, St. Mary's, OSU, FSU). If that happens, then this is a "good" OOC schedule.
Worst case (realistic) scenario is that LSU only gets one Tier 1 game out of the schedule (St. Mary's) because they miss out on playing Villanova and FSU, Houston, OSU just aren't that good.
Also, the fact that LSU isn't in the SEC/Big 12 challenge again really hurts because that is a lost opportunity at what could (perhaps would) have likely been a Tier 1 game.
Having a weak OOC schedule doesn't mean you can't make the NCAAT. It just means your margin for error in conference play is slim. For example, last season A&M (9-9)and Alabama (8-10) weren't great in SEC play. However, both made the NCAAT rather comfortably because they played great OOC schedules. Compare that to Miss. St. who had the same SEC record as A&M and better SEC record than Bama, yet missed out on the NCAAT. Why? In large part it was because their OOC schedule sucked and they beat no one of note outside of conf. play. Conversely, LSU was unexpectedly in the NCAAT conversation late in the season in no small part because they had wins vs. Michigan and Houston.
It's too early to definitively say the schedule "sucks" or the schedule is "great". IMO, on paper, it looks to be average to below average, but with a CHANCE to be good.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 1:59 pm to Alt26
Houston, Memphis, and St. Marys' in particular would be quality wins if Tigers take care of business. The Advocare tourney is obviously variable...but I think 1-2 quality wins is possible there.
Add to that a VERY strong top half of the SEC and the RPI would be just fine.
One thing I agree with is no longer scheduling SWAC teams. I'd just rather not schedule them any longer.
Incarnate Word is a team Wade probably expects to be better.
Add to that a VERY strong top half of the SEC and the RPI would be just fine.
One thing I agree with is no longer scheduling SWAC teams. I'd just rather not schedule them any longer.
Incarnate Word is a team Wade probably expects to be better.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 2:13 pm to MajorTiger
Interesting. Possibly 2 matchups in the regular season vs Memphis, a often potent basketball unit.
That AdvoCare Invitational has one elite opponent in the form of Villanova. Tigers, and Will Wade, can make their bones with an upset win over the always powerful Cats.
That AdvoCare Invitational has one elite opponent in the form of Villanova. Tigers, and Will Wade, can make their bones with an upset win over the always powerful Cats.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 2:15 pm to MajorTiger
quote:
22, 23, 25 – AdvoCare Invitational (Orlando, Florida) (participants: Canisius, Charleston, Florida State, Memphis, Oklahoma State, Villanova, UAB)
December
Saturday 1 – GRAMBLING
Sunday 9 – INCARNATE WORD
Good to see any positive RPI moves made in Orlando will be promptly raped when they come home.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 2:26 pm to SoloTiger
Houston is losing two of their top 3 scorers. Particularly Rob Gray, who at times almost single-handedly carried them. A guy like that is almost impossible to replace. But Sampson is a very good coach (until he eventually puts his program on probation), so I think top 75 is doable for them.
I disagree on Memphis. It's a program living on past name recognition right now. Hardaway will be able to get local talent, but forgive me if I'm not sold on a HC who has ZERO college coaching experience whatsoever all of a sudden turning around that program. It's one thing to have been a great NBA player and be able to use that to recruit local talent. It's quite another thing to actually be able to coach and run a program. I'll believe it when I see it. But I suspect Hardaway's tenure will be about as successful as a cross between Johnny Jones and Chris Mullen. He'll get local players and then significantly underachieve.
If Memphis doesn't finish in the top 75 (they were 108 last season), then assuming LSU wins, that would be a Tier 3 win...certainly not a quality win
I disagree on Memphis. It's a program living on past name recognition right now. Hardaway will be able to get local talent, but forgive me if I'm not sold on a HC who has ZERO college coaching experience whatsoever all of a sudden turning around that program. It's one thing to have been a great NBA player and be able to use that to recruit local talent. It's quite another thing to actually be able to coach and run a program. I'll believe it when I see it. But I suspect Hardaway's tenure will be about as successful as a cross between Johnny Jones and Chris Mullen. He'll get local players and then significantly underachieve.
If Memphis doesn't finish in the top 75 (they were 108 last season), then assuming LSU wins, that would be a Tier 3 win...certainly not a quality win
Posted on 6/13/18 at 7:47 pm to La Place Mike
Truer words have never been spoken. I have BLED p&g since 1978. In Jones's last year during that awful 15 game losing streak, I had to work til midnight during #16. I dvr'd and watched THAT game after midnight. Root for your blanking team when the sun shines AND when it rains!!
Posted on 6/13/18 at 8:32 pm to MajorTiger
No reason to complain about that schedule. St marys, houston, and memphis should all be decent if not tourny teams. And the matchups in that tourny could have is playing very highly ranked teams especially if we play nova.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 10:00 pm to thunderbird1100
Yeah I live in the triad (UNC, Duke, NC State) and UNCG is a good team that can certainly beat LSU. They made the tournament last year and beat NC State during the regular season. They were 27-7. Its not a sexy name, but if they have similar success as last year, it could certainly help our RPI.
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