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re: Baseball Talk, what’s your starting lineup?
Posted on 1/20/23 at 1:06 pm to Safety Blitz
Posted on 1/20/23 at 1:06 pm to Safety Blitz
The fact that there is no real consensus shows the depth of this roster. Love these problems.
Pearson lf
Crews cf
Morgan 1b
White 3b
Dugas/skenes/many others dh
Thompson ss
Kling rf
Milazzo c
Merrifield 2b
Can also see crews leading odd with Pearson protecting white. The only thing I see differently than most is who is 9th. Milazzo I see batting 8th and ninth being a “second lead off “ guy to get Crews more rbi opportunities. Maybe even Thompson batting 9th?
DH/2B/RF will see quite a bit of rotation until someone takes the position. Outside of Skenes at DH for 2 games each week.
Pearson lf
Crews cf
Morgan 1b
White 3b
Dugas/skenes/many others dh
Thompson ss
Kling rf
Milazzo c
Merrifield 2b
Can also see crews leading odd with Pearson protecting white. The only thing I see differently than most is who is 9th. Milazzo I see batting 8th and ninth being a “second lead off “ guy to get Crews more rbi opportunities. Maybe even Thompson batting 9th?
DH/2B/RF will see quite a bit of rotation until someone takes the position. Outside of Skenes at DH for 2 games each week.
0
Posted on 1/20/23 at 1:58 pm to BayTiger13
I'm well aware, so pitch Sunday so he can bat Friday and Saturday.
This post was edited on 1/20/23 at 2:00 pm
Posted on 1/20/23 at 2:17 pm to beardkp
If he is the obvious best arm in the rotation, which I think he is, he needs to go on Fridays.
They will have too many options at DH to not have a drop off of production in that spot.
They will have too many options at DH to not have a drop off of production in that spot.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 2:20 pm to BayTiger13
quote:
If he is the obvious best arm in the rotation, which I think he is, he needs to go on Fridays.
They will have too many options at DH to not have a drop off of production in that spot.
Are there any other examples in recent memory of aces DH'ing later on in series and midweeks?
Genuinely curious is there is precedent or other examples that they are basing this model on
Posted on 1/20/23 at 2:29 pm to RATeamWannabe
The last legit 2 way starting pitcher I can recall at the level of Skenes is Brendan McKay from Louisville. He played 1B and DH on days he didn't pitch. Not sure exactly how they managed him. He was impressive on how successful he was on the mound and at the plate at the college level.
The biggest part about this situation is that Skenes won't have to be counted on to DH if they don't want to use him there. Plenty other options.
The biggest part about this situation is that Skenes won't have to be counted on to DH if they don't want to use him there. Plenty other options.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 2:50 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
If lsu is as good as people think, Skenes hitting in the lineup will be a luxury, not a necessity. They will have guys to pick up the slack
Exactly. I know Skenes will get at bats but I really don’t know that he’s going to be a major contributor to the offense.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 2:57 pm to BatonrougeCajun
He will be a major contributor when he's in the lineup, simply because he can leave the yard at any point. He hit 13 bombs in just 153 at bats last year. His stats are very similar to Pearson last season, Skenes just has more pop. If somebody asked me if we wanted another Pearson like contribution, I'd take it and run. And Pearson can't even pitch. What a loser.
ETA: Even if you cut Skenes' at bats down to around 100, you're still likely to get 10+ bombs. Production in the neighborhood of McManus last year. I'd say McManus was a pretty big contributor.
ETA: Even if you cut Skenes' at bats down to around 100, you're still likely to get 10+ bombs. Production in the neighborhood of McManus last year. I'd say McManus was a pretty big contributor.
This post was edited on 1/20/23 at 3:01 pm
Posted on 1/20/23 at 3:00 pm to beardkp
quote:
I'm well aware, so pitch Sunday so he can bat Friday and Saturday.
I believe even if he were to pitch on Sundays they would still give him Saturday off the day before. I’m not sure I want my starting pitcher that is known for his power pitching taking 20-30 swings when you include warm up tee and BP.
Plus he is a legit top 10 draft pick as a pitcher. You pitch him Friday night and get the win.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 3:06 pm to DRock88
quote:
ETA: Even if you cut Skenes' at bats down to around 100, you're still likely to get 10+ bombs. Production in the neighborhood of McManus last year. I'd say McManus was a pretty big contributor.
In college so far he's been good for a HR every 16 plate appearances. I think he'll get around 130 PAs this season. With physical development it could put him around 10 HRs, but he's played at altitude a lot. His stuff will be better on the mound, but his power numbers at the plate may stagnate a bit. Which is fine because he would still be a big contributor.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 3:08 pm to ProjectP2294
So you're taking under 10. I'm taking the over.
ETA: Regarding altitude, he hit alot of his HRs in Texas and California.
ETA: Regarding altitude, he hit alot of his HRs in Texas and California.
This post was edited on 1/20/23 at 3:11 pm
Posted on 1/20/23 at 3:12 pm to DRock88
Just providing more context. I do think people under-consider that most of the Mountain West is at altitude. And they under-consider it both ways (the positive on pitching and negative on hitting).
I will say this though, 130 plate appearances against Sunday and midweek guys is a lot different than vs Fri/Sat guys. I don't know if I'm ready to take the under.
I will say this though, 130 plate appearances against Sunday and midweek guys is a lot different than vs Fri/Sat guys. I don't know if I'm ready to take the under.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 3:18 pm to ProjectP2294
In the fall he was 8-37 at the plate and 5 of his 8 hits were homers. If that helps your decision any. I'll go with the over.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 3:25 pm to BayTiger13
Just Hope Thompson finds his glove!
Posted on 1/20/23 at 3:25 pm to BayTiger13
It's kind of what I would expect out of him. Throw your tail off on Friday, get some recovery on Saturday, then go swing out of your shoes on Sunday (1-5 with 3 Ks and a HR). Then, go swing out of your shoes in the mid week game (1-4, 2 Ks, 1 BB, and a HR) before we start dialing back in for the next weekend start on the bump. Batting average will be lagniappe. Hold down Friday nights, stay healthy, and go hunt some bombs.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 3:41 pm to DRock88
I'm working on some very amateur and rudimentary projections. I posted some earlier in this thread. I just use the stats on baseball-reference and make assumptions and tweaks from there.
But on D1 baseball now they have more advanced stuff like batted ball data and even something as simple as BABIPwhich isn't on b-ref. Those are things that could weight heavily into any real projections, which I don't think I'm capable of doing.
ETA: They have it for 2022. They will have it for 2023 as well, and they're adding a bunch of other stuff to their score page like win probability.
But on D1 baseball now they have more advanced stuff like batted ball data and even something as simple as BABIPwhich isn't on b-ref. Those are things that could weight heavily into any real projections, which I don't think I'm capable of doing.
ETA: They have it for 2022. They will have it for 2023 as well, and they're adding a bunch of other stuff to their score page like win probability.
This post was edited on 1/20/23 at 3:45 pm
Posted on 1/20/23 at 3:49 pm to ProjectP2294
I love it. I love it all.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 3:51 pm to moock blackjack
quote:
Just Hope Thompson finds his glove!
He only had 1 error through the fall compared to Guidry with 6 if that helps you out any.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 3:53 pm to DRock88
quote:
It's kind of what I would expect out of him. Throw your tail off on Friday, get some recovery on Saturday, then go swing out of your shoes on Sunday (1-5 with 3 Ks and a HR). Then, go swing out of your shoes in the mid week game (1-4, 2 Ks, 1 BB, and a HR) before we start dialing back in for the next weekend start on the bump. Batting average will be lagniappe. Hold down Friday nights, stay healthy, and go hunt some bombs.
So this is kind of what I was thinking also at first, but when I went look back at the fall stats he had a 29%K rate. Which isn't great but not bad for a power guy. For some reason I was thinking it was worse than that before I went back and look.
Posted on 1/20/23 at 4:05 pm to BayTiger13
And just 26% K rate at Air Force, but I still think he's going to whiff alot here. My 59% example is obviously way high, just used it more to illustrate that he's going to do damage regardless of what the other hitting stats look like. He and Jay have made it perfectly clear that pitching is his ultimate focus.
If you have Milazzo sitting, opposing pitchers can't take a single batter off without fear of getting turned around into the bleachers. Very uncomfortable knowing 1-9 are all very possible double digit HR guys, 2 of which could get into the 20s.
If you have Milazzo sitting, opposing pitchers can't take a single batter off without fear of getting turned around into the bleachers. Very uncomfortable knowing 1-9 are all very possible double digit HR guys, 2 of which could get into the 20s.
This post was edited on 1/20/23 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 1/20/23 at 6:14 pm to BayTiger13
Coach Johnson as said in numerous interviews that Thompson was hurt the first part of last season, preventing him from getting down on ground balls as much as necessary. In the second half of the season, as he got better, he played "a lot better defense". His offense has always spoken for itself.
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