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Alabama spread vs other top CFB teams
Posted on 11/8/18 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 11/8/18 at 12:31 pm
Current Odds across multiple sports books that Vegas has put out as possible matchups for Bama vs playoff contenders (neutral field assumed):
Alabama (-13.5) (-17.5 neutral site probably) vs LSU (last week closing line)
Alabama (-9) vs Clemson
Alabama (-20.5) vs Notre Dame
Alabama (-14) vs Michigan
Alabama (-31) vs UCF
Alabama (-25.5) vs Oklahoma
Besides Clemson (and possibly Michigan) LSU really has the best chance at beating Alabama. Whether this is a testament to our overall talent or great defense, I don’t know. But this is Vegas’ unbiased expectations of teams matchups with them. By the way, what happened last week would not likely change the line with Alabama much (maybe a couple points). Especially, for two top CFB teams, Vegas’ lines are very sharp and efficient and over the long term their predictive models beat out 99% of bettors. 1 result wouldn’t likely change their opinion by much for those that might bring up that objection.
I have tracked this the past 3-4 years and it is like this every year. LSU, at least according to Vegas, is top 4 team year in and year out. Yet, we typically finish outside the top 10 or even worse. Part of that is difficulty in schedule but most of it is a result of absolute atrocious coaching.
When people say “LSU fans are spoiled and aren’t happy with 8-9 win seasons” Why would be? We are repeatdebly underperforming year by year.
Alabama (-13.5) (-17.5 neutral site probably) vs LSU (last week closing line)
Alabama (-9) vs Clemson
Alabama (-20.5) vs Notre Dame
Alabama (-14) vs Michigan
Alabama (-31) vs UCF
Alabama (-25.5) vs Oklahoma
Besides Clemson (and possibly Michigan) LSU really has the best chance at beating Alabama. Whether this is a testament to our overall talent or great defense, I don’t know. But this is Vegas’ unbiased expectations of teams matchups with them. By the way, what happened last week would not likely change the line with Alabama much (maybe a couple points). Especially, for two top CFB teams, Vegas’ lines are very sharp and efficient and over the long term their predictive models beat out 99% of bettors. 1 result wouldn’t likely change their opinion by much for those that might bring up that objection.
I have tracked this the past 3-4 years and it is like this every year. LSU, at least according to Vegas, is top 4 team year in and year out. Yet, we typically finish outside the top 10 or even worse. Part of that is difficulty in schedule but most of it is a result of absolute atrocious coaching.
When people say “LSU fans are spoiled and aren’t happy with 8-9 win seasons” Why would be? We are repeatdebly underperforming year by year.
This post was edited on 11/8/18 at 12:44 pm
8
Posted on 11/8/18 at 12:33 pm to IPALover
Vegas knows the perception is that LSU is still an elite program.
Posted on 11/8/18 at 12:38 pm to IPALover
quote:
When people say “LSU fans are spoiled and aren’t happy with 8-9 win seasons” Why would be? We are repeatdebly underperforming year by year.
We were dogs versus Miami, Ga. and Bama if I'm not mistaken.
We won two of those, but lost to Florida as the favorite.
According to your methodology we are over achieving, right?
We should be 6-3, but we are actually 7-2.
ETA: if you want to use the Vegas odds to see if we are under achieving; go back and see how often we covered.
Last week we were supposed to lose by 2 TDs instead we lost by 4+. Not good.
But how did the other games go? That tells you if you are underachieving v the odds or not, not the W-L record.
On second thought isn't there an over and under betting line set in the preseason as to the expectations of each team? How did we do on that one?
This post was edited on 11/8/18 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 11/8/18 at 12:38 pm to IPALover
Wouldn’t really change the story much but you can’t use our closing line in comparison to the neutral field lines of the others.
Posted on 11/8/18 at 12:40 pm to MOT
Apples to Oranges....
The other spreads are for neutral site games. They came to Tiger Stadium as -13.5 favorites. Neutral site and they would be favored by probably -18 to -20.
The other spreads are for neutral site games. They came to Tiger Stadium as -13.5 favorites. Neutral site and they would be favored by probably -18 to -20.
Posted on 11/8/18 at 12:41 pm to IPALover
Those spreads are for neutral site games
ETA: what bigosports said
ETA2: I should've read the OP more thoroughly
ETA: what bigosports said
ETA2: I should've read the OP more thoroughly
This post was edited on 11/8/18 at 12:46 pm
Posted on 11/8/18 at 12:42 pm to bigosports
Okay? The same still applies. Clemson and Michigan have a better chance. But other teams do not
This post was edited on 11/8/18 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 11/8/18 at 12:44 pm to bigosports
quote:
The other spreads are for neutral site games. They came to Tiger Stadium as -13.5 favorites. Neutral site and they would be favored by probably -18 to -20.
yep. and now you add in what happened last week and if we were to rematch with them on a neutral site youre probably looking at 21.5-24.5
Posted on 11/8/18 at 12:48 pm to IPALover
quote:
LSU really has the best chance at beating Alabama
No one is beating Bama. LSU, Clemson, Michigan....there's no chance.
Posted on 11/8/18 at 12:50 pm to DBG
quote:LSU still is an elite program. We're just stuck in the same division with a legendary program.
Vegas knows the perception is that LSU is still an elite program.
Posted on 11/8/18 at 12:50 pm to RogerTheShrubber
That’s not the point.....never mind
Posted on 11/8/18 at 1:07 pm to IPALover
I think all those other teams would fair better against Alabama.
Posted on 11/8/18 at 1:11 pm to IPALover
quote:
Alabama (-13.5) (-17.5 neutral site probably) vs LSU (last week closing line)
Those lines are also able to now factor in that Alabama beat now #7 LSU on the road by 29. The line wouldn't be 13.5 if they played again. Your logic is flawed.
Posted on 11/8/18 at 3:09 pm to IPALover
quote:
When people say “LSU fans are spoiled and aren’t happy with 8-9 win seasons” Why would be? We are repeatdebly underperforming year by year.
You people are idiots. There’s a big difference in winning 8-9 games and winning 10-11 games. Winning the citrus bowl vs winning the sugar bowl is night and day. Y’all gotta stop acting like it’s championship or bust. There’s 3 levels: CFP, NY6 bowl and the rest of the bowls. We’re in that middle tier this season. All things considered that’s not bad. Be happy frickers
Posted on 11/8/18 at 3:10 pm to bigpapamac
Exactly. If they played again at tiger stadium in a few weeks Bama would be favored by 20+ points.
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