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re: 55% of bets and 82% of total money is on Miami
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:17 pm to LSUsince74
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:17 pm to LSUsince74
If i gambled, id drop $100 on LSU, but i don't gamble
0
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:17 pm to tigerfoot
quote:
Sometimes they let it ride for unknown reasons. If 80 percent of the cash is in on Miami and Vegas ain’t moving, they are confident in LSU
For the 5th time the OP is an idiot, 53% of the cash is on LSU, 53% of tickets are on Miami. Why is this so hard to grasp
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:20 pm to LSUsince74
quote:
55% of bets and 82% of total money is on Miami
If this is the case, why hasn't the line moved since it opened?
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:22 pm to LSUsince74
Rightfully so. It should be.
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:26 pm to LSUsince74
82% of the money will be lost.
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:28 pm to tigerfoot
quote:I'd bet everything I own that by gametime the line won't be anywhere near 80% and will be close to 50. Sports books would go under otherwise.
Sometimes they let it ride for unknown reasons. If 80 percent of the cash is in on Miami and Vegas ain’t moving, they are confident in LSU. Almost makes you wonder if Miami is going to announce some suspensions/injuries?
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:28 pm to the_watcher
quote:makes much more sense.
For the 5th time the OP is an idiot, 53% of the cash is on LSU, 53% of tickets are on Miami.
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:30 pm to iamandykeim
quote:
right, because everything is that black and white
Betting is for many. They look at that line and think it's easy money.
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:38 pm to the_watcher
quote:yes, but again, Vegas tries to get equal money bet on both teams.
And you’re one of them. Do money lines not exist?
quote:right, but that's a book's goal. They make their money off the vig, not on correctly picking winners and losers.
Would it be great if all 60 games this weekend had a 50/50 split? Of course. But it rarely happens.
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:40 pm to atltiger6487
quote:
right, but that's a book's goal. They make their money off the vig, not on correctly picking winners and losers.
Again, do money line bets not exist?
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:44 pm to the_watcher
quote:you're completely missing my point about Vegas not picking winners and losers. Of course money line bets exist, but, as always, the book adjusts the line to get equal money bet on both teams, so they're not overly exposed.
Again, do money line bets not exist?
What about this don't you understand?
Posted on 8/27/18 at 3:49 pm to atltiger6487
quote:
you're completely missing my point about Vegas not picking winners and losers. Of course money line bets exist, but, as always, the book adjusts the line to get equal money bet on both teams, so they're not overly exposed
Yea and I tried to bang 10’s in college. Doesn’t mean I was successful. Moving the line doesn’t guarantee they will get action on the other side. The 50/50 equal action collect the juice bull shite is just that. Bull shite. Like tie going to the runner in baseball. Someone said it once and ignorant people repeated it over and over again.
Do they move the line to entice action on the other side? Yes of course. Do they get equal action on both sides of the majority of games? Not even close. NFL favs win the game outright almost 70% of the time. NCAA football is almost 75%
Posted on 8/27/18 at 4:01 pm to atltiger6487
quote:
the book adjusts the line to get equal money bet on both teams, so they're not overly exposed. What about this don't you understand?
I’ve heard sports book managers say it’s not exactly true. On bigger games, think the Super Bowl or isolated games, yes they try to get close to 50-50 and if they are too over exposed on 1 side,!they will move the line to try and get more action on thei other side but the reality is they almost never get 50-50 A simple google search will show several weekends in the recent past where they got killed. Generally speaking the ideal for them is for the favorite to win but not cover since more ML bets will be on the underdog.
As for why this game hasn’t moved There probably isn’t enough action on it for them to worry about it at this 82% on this game could be a few thousand for all we know.
This post was edited on 8/27/18 at 4:03 pm
Posted on 8/27/18 at 4:03 pm to the_watcher
quote:of course favs will win outright - they're typically the better team. But again, it's all about getting equal money (or as close as they can get it) on both sides.
Do they get equal action on both sides of the majority of games? Not even close. NFL favs win the game outright almost 70% of the time. NCAA football is almost 75%
I'd bet (no pun intended) that if you took a weekends' worth of games and added it all up, a book would get damn close to 50% of the money bet on both sides, for both spread and money line bets.
You do realize the line on money line bets adjusts too, right? It's a different bet since it's just on the winner, but same theory - adjust the line to get equal money bet on both sides. Otherwise, money line bets on the favorite would be virtual guaranteed losers for a book. And that's not something they'd tolerate.
If you don't get this, you're really dense.
ETA: a book may be off on a particular game(s), but with a large enough sample size, I'd bet they're pretty darn close to 50-50.
This post was edited on 8/27/18 at 4:06 pm
Posted on 8/27/18 at 4:03 pm to H-Town Tiger
The percentage means nothing at this point. As stated it could be a couple grand for all we know. Wait until Sunday morning when everyone who lost on Saturday is trying to get all their money back or people who won are trying to double up. It’s the gamblers fallacy.
Posted on 8/27/18 at 4:30 pm to atltiger6487
quote:
I'd bet (no pun intended) that if you took a weekends' worth of games and added it all up, a book would get damn close to 50% of the money bet on both sides, for both spread and money line bets.
Then you’d lose that bet
quote:
You do realize the line on money line bets adjusts too, right?
Lol
quote:
If you don't get this, you're really dense.
I’m not the dense one in this conversation
Posted on 8/27/18 at 4:31 pm to SoloTiger
I think it's a Vegas trap
Seems too easy.
Seems too easy.
Posted on 8/27/18 at 4:37 pm to atltiger6487
You aren't even in the same zip code when it comes to having a clue.
MANY times one side is bet much more than the other side. Smaller books will sometimes lay off on that when the risk is too high for them. Typically the larger books won't.
MANY times one side is bet much more than the other side. Smaller books will sometimes lay off on that when the risk is too high for them. Typically the larger books won't.
Posted on 8/27/18 at 4:45 pm to the_watcher
You know the odds on ML bets change too, right?
Posted on 8/27/18 at 4:50 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
You know the odds on ML bets change too, right?
fricking of course. Jesus Christ. The guys premise is Vegas doesn’t care who wins - only who covers - and that moving a line guarantees getting action on the other side (spoiler alert - it doesn’t). He also thinks every game has almost exactly 50/50 action.
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