11 Seed in Latest Bracketology

Does LSU have a bad loss on their resume? I know they don’t have any good wins but they haven’t really loss to any bad team. Maybe Kentucky or Florida is considered a bad loss but both of those games were on the road.

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LSU doesn't really have any "bad" losses

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I get that Alabama is a good team this year, but that 30-point home loss can't be "good," right? Also, what about the loss to St. Louis? I know it was early and that they've had a bunch of games canceled this year, but how are they shaping up?

As of now LSU has remaining:
Quad 1 - 4 games
Quad 2 - 3 games
Quad 3 - 1 game

We’re to the point where quality wins/bad losses won’t really matter for LSU. If we don’t win at least one of those Quad 1 games and sweep quad 2 and 3 we’d be 15-9 and need some luck just to get in a play in game.

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I get that Alabama is a good team this year, but that 30-point home loss can't be "good," right?

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No loss is "good". But at the end of the day, it's just one game. The NET rating only award credit for margin of victory up to 10 points. So whether you win by 11 or 40, it counts the same. On the flip side, the committee isn't going to severely punish you for one bad night...which most teams have at some point during the season. In 2019 Auburn got beat by 27 by UK. The still ended up being a #5 seed and making a run to the Final Four.

In the grand scheme of things I would GLADLY trade a 30 point loss at home for a win ON THE ROAD against that same Alabama team. Road wins are like gold to the selection committee.

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Also, what about the loss to St. Louis?

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SLU is a solid team. They are top 40 in NET. The problem is they've been completely fricked by "pandemic protocols" in A10 play. They literally played ONE game in the entire month of January (a loss). Their record is 7-2. It would be MUCH better....if they could actually play a freaking game!

I live near the St. Louis area. It has to be absolutely brutal for SLU fans because this could be their best team ever and they haven’t even played 10 games. Very frustrating.

Do we not get any kind of bump for hanging right with and honestly outplaying a 10th ranked projected 4-seed?

I don't see any bad losses on our schedule, but going forward we cannot lose to Vandy, Arkansas, Miss St. I think Splitting Auburn and UGA are fine as long as you have a win against Bama, Tenn or Florida.

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I think Splitting Auburn and UGA are fine as long as you have a win against Bama, Tenn or Florida.

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If you are going to split Auburn and Georgia, then LSU better do more than just winning ONE of the games vs. Bama, Tenn, Florida.

The two BIGGEST metrics in the eyes of the selection committee are:

1. Wins vs. other NCAAT teams/Q1 opponents

2. Wins away from home.

FULL.STOP.

The committee doesn't care that you were able to beat every average/bad team on your schedule. It doesn't overly impress them that you can win every game at home, but not away from home.

They want to see "skins on the wall." Right now, LSU doesn't have many (if any). That can change tonight as beating Alabama on the road would be a HUGE "skin". Follow that up with wins AT MSU and at home vs. Florida and Tenn, then LSU is "in" going into the final 4-5 games of the season. But if LSU loses to Bama, Tenn. and Florida (or maybe even just loses 2 of the 3) then there won't be many "skins" left to get

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Does LSU have a bad loss on their resume? I know they don’t have any good wins but they haven’t really loss to any bad team. Maybe Kentucky or Florida is considered a bad loss but both of those games were on the road.

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As a fan, the Bama blowout and UK games were bad losses because they played bad. But they haven't lost to any really bad teams, so there are no bad losses in that aspect. Two of their SEC losses are to currently ranked teams and and the other was to Kentucky who is not the usual Kentucky, but still has a lot of talent. And one of their non-conference losses is to a currently ranked team. They just don't have a win against a ranked team.

The win that would go much farther than the home games in giving LSU some leeway down the stretch--assuming @ Mizzou isn't played -- is at Alabama tonight. It's also well within reach for a couple of reasons.

1) Alabama seems extremely beaten up right now. Herb Jones has a back injury and hasn't been practicing though he'll still play banged up. Bruner is out and both of his backups, Reese and Rojas, have also been held out of practice with injuries. Quinerly hasn't really seemed up to full speed since he came back from Covid or whatever it was that kept him out a few games.


2) Psychologically, a severely lopsided win like they had at LSU statistically works to LSU's advantage. (It's actually been interesting to see this in relief this season in smaller conferences due to them scheduling back to back games this season. It's eye opening to see the amount of games that a team wins by 25 points and then loses or goes to the wire against the same team the next night.)