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Transfer class ratings are imo much more accurate than HS ratings

Posted on 1/2/25 at 6:36 pm
Posted by Saunson69
Member since May 2023
6308 posts
Posted on 1/2/25 at 6:36 pm
My first beef with transfer ratings, is that there has only been 1, 5 star transfer in history of 247. Travis Hunter. Yet majority of top players and Heisman trophy winners are seemingly transfers: Burrow, JD5, Cam Ward, Travis Hunter, Shedeur Sanders, Jaxon Dart was great, I'm sure I could name plenty more.

Transfer ratings get to see how the player performed at the college level. High School, well they could be playing 5'7 125 lb kids every game in 1A in Wyoming.

LSU getting the #1 transfer class is huge in my opinion as it is more accurate than high school ratings.
This post was edited on 1/2/25 at 6:38 pm
Posted by Underteaux
Member since Feb 2024
449 posts
Posted on 1/2/25 at 7:00 pm to
I’m not sure what you mean by “accurate”

Signing from the transfer portal is just a safer gamble on a player.
Posted by misey94
Hernando, MS
Member since Jan 2007
27552 posts
Posted on 1/2/25 at 7:08 pm to
They are still pretty hit or miss in terms of predicting performance. Look at how disappointing several of our 23 portal class were relative to rankings and expectations. Look at FSUs this year.
Posted by nick__21
Member since Jan 2020
221 posts
Posted on 1/2/25 at 7:11 pm to
quote:

Look at FSUs this year.


They had no skill players on offense. Their defense was good but gave up because they had no chance.
Posted by misey94
Hernando, MS
Member since Jan 2007
27552 posts
Posted on 1/2/25 at 7:13 pm to
quote:

They had no skill players on offense. Their defense was good but gave up because they had no chance.


DJ U was a fricking high 4 star with a 91 rating. How did that portal eval work out?
Posted by Saunson69
Member since May 2023
6308 posts
Posted on 1/2/25 at 7:16 pm to
quote:

DJ U was a fricking high 4 star with a 91 rating. How did that portal eval work out?


Still his 247 Transfer rating is more accurate than his 247 high school rating. 247 put him as a 101 extreme high 5 star rating in high school. He got a 91 rating upon transfer, a low 4 star. Although he's even worse than a 91 rating, it is still closer than the outrageous 101 grade he got in high school.
This post was edited on 1/2/25 at 7:20 pm
Posted by Saunson69
Member since May 2023
6308 posts
Posted on 1/2/25 at 7:18 pm to
quote:

Signing from the transfer portal is just a safer gamble on a player.



That is what I mean. For example, Zy Alexander did not even have a rating on 247 during high school. He was basically a 0 star. Upon transferring, he got a 93 rating on 247 which is like a mid level 4 star. A very solid rating. He was the only bright side in our DB group.

The transfer rating on Alexander was way more accurate than the essential 0 star they gave him in high school.
Posted by misey94
Hernando, MS
Member since Jan 2007
27552 posts
Posted on 1/2/25 at 7:25 pm to
quote:

Still his 247 Transfer rating is more accurate than his 247 high school rating. 247 put him as a 101 rating in high school. He got a 91 rating upon transfer. Although he's even worse than 91, it is still closer than the outrageous 101 grade he got in high school.


Nice try. His only success was playing one season in a depleted PAC 12 and he was still just ok. He deserved a high 3 or low 4 star grade. He was abysmal this season and the grade absolutely didn’t indicate his performance.

Take a look at JK Johnson who just transferred away from here. He was a 4 star portal guy coming in. He’s now a 3 star because he couldn’t cut it, but it took two stops for 247 to get it close to right with him. And to be honest- he’s STILL ranked too high.
This post was edited on 1/2/25 at 7:26 pm
Posted by AkronTiger
Rubber City
Member since May 2021
2283 posts
Posted on 1/2/25 at 7:40 pm to
It’s also more expensive, and a much less dependable/consistent way to build competitive depth year after and year. The best teams still generally build from HS and cherry pick the portal.
Posted by nick__21
Member since Jan 2020
221 posts
Posted on 1/2/25 at 9:09 pm to
quote:

DJ U was a fricking high 4 star with a 91 rating. How did that portal eval work out?


Poor OL combined with 0 WRs = QB irrelevant.
Posted by misey94
Hernando, MS
Member since Jan 2007
27552 posts
Posted on 1/2/25 at 9:16 pm to
quote:

Poor OL combined with 0 WRs = QB irrelevant.


Honest answer- do you think he lives up to that ranking playing behind a decent OL?

If so, I don’t have much respect for your opinion.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
70747 posts
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:49 am to
quote:

Poor OL combined with 0 WRs = QB irrelevant.



DJ U has never been good in college

He was mediocre in his 4th season at Oregon St completing 57% of his passes still and then was garbage this year at FSU.

After 5 years in college he has a career passer rating of 128.3
This post was edited on 1/3/25 at 7:51 am
Posted by Donkus
Shreveport
Member since Feb 2013
1170 posts
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:58 am to
I'd rather spend NIL dollars on an All-Sun Belt DE than a 4 star high school DE.
Posted by chRxis
None of your fricking business
Member since Feb 2008
25581 posts
Posted on 1/3/25 at 11:00 am to
quote:

They are still pretty hit or miss in terms of predicting performance. Look at how disappointing several of our 23 portal class were relative to rankings and expectations. Look at FSUs this year.


EXACTLY...

people thinking we a lock for greatness now b/c we got a #1 transfer class are retarded... until we see them play and are proven otherwise, we are still in the same "10 win ceiling with Brian Kelly as our HC" position we were in before the window opened
Posted by Yeti_Chaser
Member since Nov 2017
9615 posts
Posted on 1/3/25 at 2:19 pm to
Your post is confusing. You're arguing that transfer ratings are more accurate but you listed a bunch of guys that the transfer rankings missed on.
Posted by misey94
Hernando, MS
Member since Jan 2007
27552 posts
Posted on 1/3/25 at 2:33 pm to
quote:

people thinking we a lock for greatness now b/c we got a #1 transfer class are retarded... until we see them play and are proven otherwise, we are still in the same "10 win ceiling with Brian Kelly as our HC" position we were in before the window opened


My one argument with you on performance is that we did get a few of these players from other SEC programs. I feel better about them knowing they have played well against the same level of competition. That is a much more sure indicator than a ranking from 247 or On3.
Posted by chRxis
None of your fricking business
Member since Feb 2008
25581 posts
Posted on 1/7/25 at 7:28 am to
quote:

we did get a few of these players from other SEC programs.

and?

since BK, we've had other SEC guys transfer in and not exactly light up the world...
Denver Harris, remember him? Jalen Lee? AJ Swann? Zavion Thomas? Jardin Gilbert? Austin Ausberry? Joe Foucha? Ovie Oghoufo? Kolbe Fields?

i'd go as far as saying the only SEC guys we've gotten that have worked out were Mekhi Wingo, Aaron Anderson, and Major Burns (and i only include him on this list b/c he played a lot, not necessarily b/c he played very well)

so out of 12 SEC transfers we've gotten 3 have been somewhat productive/not disappointing... hell, i'd even be willing to listen to arguments for Zavion Thomas to bump it to 4... but still, at the end of the day, out of 12 only 3 or 4 were productive members of their team...

so, tell me again about those "sure indicators" from 247 and On3...
Posted by Curtis Lowe
Member since Dec 2019
1501 posts
Posted on 1/7/25 at 8:00 am to
quote:

o out of 12 SEC transfers we've gotten 3 have been somewhat productive/not disappointing


For the record there were 10 SEC transfers to LSU in the 2022 - 2024 period, Burns was pre-wild west portal of today There are more than just 3 of the 11 that have been productive.

Wingo, Anderson and Burns as you named; plus:

Brooks and Foucha should be added to the list, both played a big role in the 2022 defense that got LSU to the SEC championship game.

Zavion Thomas had two returns for touchdowns on special teams and had moments during the 2024 season.

quote:

Denver Harris, remember him? Jalen Lee? AJ Swann? Zavion Thomas? Jardin Gilbert? Austin Ausberry? Joe Foucha? Ovie Oghoufo? Kolbe Fields?


Fields, Ausberry, Swann and Lee were brought in for depth. Oghoufo came from Texass pre SEC days, so technically you should not be counting him as "SEC".

Fields and Ausberry both played on special teams coverage, an important aspect of a team. Any one expecting anything other than special teams and depth from these two are missing a few cards in their playing deck.

Swann was SEC experienced depth, you know, that vitally important aspect of a team in case of disaster.

I'll give you Harris (the buckethead) and Gilbert have been disappointments, even though Gilbert saw starting assignments.

Summation:

8 of 11 have contributed to the success of the LSU football team, which won 29 games over the 3 year period of 2022-2024..

Lee and Harris, not so much. Swann played his role, back-up quarterback with SEC experience.
Posted by chRxis
None of your fricking business
Member since Feb 2008
25581 posts
Posted on 1/7/25 at 11:06 pm to
you can do all the mental gymnastics and moving of the goalposts you want... point is NONE of these guys are guaranteed to be any better than we've had before, and them being transfers vs. HS players doesn't change that fact...

it also works the other way around too.... NOBODY thought Burrow or Daniels would be a Heisman contender, let along winner, when they transferred in... but it worked out...

you all are missing the fricking point, but why am i surprised...
Posted by Foreveratiga68
Member since Dec 2024
4 posts
Posted on 1/8/25 at 9:22 am to
There are always exceptions but overall I think you are correct
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