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Message

The state of LSU recruting under Les Miles & Co.
Posted on 8/23/09 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 8/23/09 at 12:04 pm
I know there is another thread about this, but all of the worry warts need to think about this before they criticize Les and each kid he offers...
There are only two other programs (USC #1 and UF #2) with higher average star rankings than LSU @ #3 over the last 5 years.
The most important thing is what your team's average the star ranking is over time (5 years because of the redshirt aspect). Thus, it does not matter where your class lands in a particular year regarding class ranking. USC class was ranked #8 in 2008, but had an average star ranking of 3.89 with 19 commits. Did the talent level drop off significantly in 2008? Answer: NO. It just had a smaller class that didn't total as many points. Class Ranking is not only a function of the caliber of talent, but it is also a function of the number of recruits that committed (class size). The more you sign, the higher total points you have and higher in the Class Rankings your team ends up. Thus, in 2005, LSU was #22, but only signed 13 players. The caliber of talent did not drop off at 3.69 average stars.
Bottom Line: Don't get over concerned about where each and every one of LSU's classes fall in the class rankings. Trends in where you fall over several years and average stars are most important in judging the caliber of talent.
For example (LSU's recruiting under Miles):
2005 Average Stars = 3.69 Avg. *s - Rivals Class Ranking #22
2006 Average Stars = 3.64 Avg. *s - Rivals Class Ranking #7
2007 Average Stars = 3.88 Avg. *s - Rivals Class Ranking #4
2008 Average Stars = 3.58 Avg. *s - Rivals Class Ranking #11
2009 Average Stars = 3.79 Avg. *s - Rivals Class Ranking #2
LSU's 5 year weighted average star ranking is 3.68! Only USC and UF have a higher average star ranking over the last 5 years. I think the last time I saw the full results on an excel spreadsheet; Univ. Texas was #4 in average stars behind LSU.
Considering that in the last 5 years, USC, UF & UT go out of state for less of their commits (USC has exactly 26%, UF has exactly 39%, & UT has exactly 7% - out of state commits), and LSU averaged exactly 48% out of state commits and CA, FL, and TX are the states with the most talent in the nation in total (not per capita) by sheer volume, Miles & Co. have a tougher job bringing in talent than USC, UF, and UT.
You really need to think about these stats and the fact that USC, TX, UF, and LSU have won the last 6 BCS National Championships.
BCS Nat. Champ. Winners
2008 UF
2007 LSU
2006 UF
2005 UT
2004 USC
2003 LSU
For those that say STARS DON’T MATTER, well on an individual basis they don’t as some 4 & 5 star ranked athletes will flop and some 2 and 3 star athletes will be awesome. However, AVERAGE STAR RANKINGS DO SEEM TO MATTER and are one factor that shows what teams have the kind of talent that good coaching can develop into National Champions.
Why anyone could have concerns about Les Miles ability to recruit is beyond me. Nick Saban didn’t even do as well as Les Miles in recruiting. And, Nick Saban won the National Championship with Jerry DeNardo’s recruits.
And, the 2010 class is looking great!
So far LSU has 22 commits and 59% are out of state kids! Provided LSU signs the commits that have verbaled come February and lands Seastrunk, Reed, Wright, and a 3* DT or any 3*, and the recruit's star rankings don’t change, LSU average stars for 2010 will be 3.731. That is slightly better than Miles' 5 year average and right where we need to be in the caliber of talent to win National Championships!
Thank you Les Miles & Co.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
P.S. I would really appreciate if the person who did that excel spread sheet would post the results here in this thread...Thank you in advance!
There are only two other programs (USC #1 and UF #2) with higher average star rankings than LSU @ #3 over the last 5 years.
The most important thing is what your team's average the star ranking is over time (5 years because of the redshirt aspect). Thus, it does not matter where your class lands in a particular year regarding class ranking. USC class was ranked #8 in 2008, but had an average star ranking of 3.89 with 19 commits. Did the talent level drop off significantly in 2008? Answer: NO. It just had a smaller class that didn't total as many points. Class Ranking is not only a function of the caliber of talent, but it is also a function of the number of recruits that committed (class size). The more you sign, the higher total points you have and higher in the Class Rankings your team ends up. Thus, in 2005, LSU was #22, but only signed 13 players. The caliber of talent did not drop off at 3.69 average stars.
Bottom Line: Don't get over concerned about where each and every one of LSU's classes fall in the class rankings. Trends in where you fall over several years and average stars are most important in judging the caliber of talent.
For example (LSU's recruiting under Miles):
2005 Average Stars = 3.69 Avg. *s - Rivals Class Ranking #22
2006 Average Stars = 3.64 Avg. *s - Rivals Class Ranking #7
2007 Average Stars = 3.88 Avg. *s - Rivals Class Ranking #4
2008 Average Stars = 3.58 Avg. *s - Rivals Class Ranking #11
2009 Average Stars = 3.79 Avg. *s - Rivals Class Ranking #2
LSU's 5 year weighted average star ranking is 3.68! Only USC and UF have a higher average star ranking over the last 5 years. I think the last time I saw the full results on an excel spreadsheet; Univ. Texas was #4 in average stars behind LSU.
Considering that in the last 5 years, USC, UF & UT go out of state for less of their commits (USC has exactly 26%, UF has exactly 39%, & UT has exactly 7% - out of state commits), and LSU averaged exactly 48% out of state commits and CA, FL, and TX are the states with the most talent in the nation in total (not per capita) by sheer volume, Miles & Co. have a tougher job bringing in talent than USC, UF, and UT.
You really need to think about these stats and the fact that USC, TX, UF, and LSU have won the last 6 BCS National Championships.
BCS Nat. Champ. Winners
2008 UF
2007 LSU
2006 UF
2005 UT
2004 USC
2003 LSU
For those that say STARS DON’T MATTER, well on an individual basis they don’t as some 4 & 5 star ranked athletes will flop and some 2 and 3 star athletes will be awesome. However, AVERAGE STAR RANKINGS DO SEEM TO MATTER and are one factor that shows what teams have the kind of talent that good coaching can develop into National Champions.
Why anyone could have concerns about Les Miles ability to recruit is beyond me. Nick Saban didn’t even do as well as Les Miles in recruiting. And, Nick Saban won the National Championship with Jerry DeNardo’s recruits.
And, the 2010 class is looking great!
So far LSU has 22 commits and 59% are out of state kids! Provided LSU signs the commits that have verbaled come February and lands Seastrunk, Reed, Wright, and a 3* DT or any 3*, and the recruit's star rankings don’t change, LSU average stars for 2010 will be 3.731. That is slightly better than Miles' 5 year average and right where we need to be in the caliber of talent to win National Championships!
Thank you Les Miles & Co.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
P.S. I would really appreciate if the person who did that excel spread sheet would post the results here in this thread...Thank you in advance!
This post was edited on 8/23/09 at 4:23 pm
Posted on 8/23/09 at 12:19 pm to Sonny G
That was strong. Great post.
Posted on 8/23/09 at 1:54 pm to SNAPPERHEAD
ehh, standard deviation....
Posted on 8/23/09 at 1:59 pm to ThermoDynamicTiger
Confidence interval? Variance? 
Posted on 8/23/09 at 2:24 pm to Babychiva
To ThermoDynamic:
I wasn't a stats major...if you would like to help...Microsoft makes this software that they call "Excel"...I'm not the best with it, but I bet you are better than I...
Why don't you help out?

I wasn't a stats major...if you would like to help...Microsoft makes this software that they call "Excel"...I'm not the best with it, but I bet you are better than I...
Why don't you help out?
This post was edited on 8/23/09 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 8/23/09 at 3:04 pm to Sonny G
Solid Post. Hang around b/c this site could use more like you around. 
Posted on 8/23/09 at 3:46 pm to Sonny G
ya cant argue with numbers. Good research man
Posted on 8/23/09 at 4:04 pm to Sonny G
Good one Sonny, looks like you and I are thinking alike. I've seen a # of your posts. Keep up the good work.
Posted on 8/23/09 at 5:13 pm to LSUDad
I love hearing people bitch about the recruiting classes when the facts look like this.
Posted on 8/23/09 at 5:19 pm to Bum
According to these stats if LSU can win the NC this year then they will be team of the decade. This is also true for Florida. If USC wins they will have an argument. But not Texas.
Posted on 8/23/09 at 6:02 pm to DaphneTigah
quote:
Solid Post. Hang around b/c this site could use more like you around.
Thanks!
Regrettably, I've been banned three times from TD over the last 4 years.
I'm staying off the poly board...that's where I get into trouble.
I've been following LSU recruiting for 6 years and love it.
Posted on 8/23/09 at 6:03 pm to LSUDad
quote:
Good one Sonny, looks like you and I are thinking alike. I've seen a # of your posts. Keep up the good work.
Definitely, I know you know what you are talking about too!
Posted on 8/23/09 at 7:08 pm to Sonny G
Good informative post. Lots of info. Thanks 
Posted on 8/23/09 at 9:19 pm to Sonny G
Great post.
Few of the $abanistas out there acknowledge that $aban could have had any success with someone else's recruits (or Urban Myth or Sweater Vest or any other coach for that matter.) No, to them Coach Miles is the only coach in the history of the world to achieve anything using someone else's recruits.
quote:
Why anyone could have concerns about Les Miles ability to recruit is beyond me. Nick Saban didn’t even do as well as Les Miles in recruiting. And, Nick Saban won the National Championship with Jerry DeNardo’s recruits.
Few of the $abanistas out there acknowledge that $aban could have had any success with someone else's recruits (or Urban Myth or Sweater Vest or any other coach for that matter.) No, to them Coach Miles is the only coach in the history of the world to achieve anything using someone else's recruits.
Posted on 8/23/09 at 9:28 pm to TexTgrTed
I could go into more detail with an excel sheet, which I am very adept with...but I'm lazy and I spend enough time on that piece of crap. Ill just give you kudos. However, I will say that if Saban won a NC with Denardo recruits, then you should probably include his class rankings (if there are any) into this....just to cover all your bases.
This post was edited on 8/23/09 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 8/24/09 at 9:47 am to ThermoDynamicTiger
Great post!
As long as Miles keeps bringing in 3.5+ star rated recruiting classes every year, the Golden Era of LSU Football will continue.
A comparison of talent between SEC and Pac-10 recruiting classes.
Rivals avg. star rated recruiting classes 2004 thru 2008
1. USC------------------------ 4.01
2. Florida--------------------- 3.70
3. LSU------------------------ 3.66
4. Georgia-------------------- 3.59
5. Tennessee----------------- 3.33
6. Bama---------------------- 3.31
7. Auburn-------------------- 3.21
8. California------------------ 3.15
9. UCLA---------------------- 3.13
10. S. Carolina---------------- 3.05
11. Oregon-------------------- 3.00
12. Arizona-------------------- 2.91
13. Arkansas------------------ 2.89
14. Arizona St.---------------- 2.86
15. Ole Piss-------------------- 2.85
16. Washington--------------- 2.77
17. Stanford------------------- 2.63
18. Oregon St.---------------- 2.62
19. Miss. St.------------------- 2.53
20. Washington St.----------- 2.45
21. Kentucky------------------ 2.39
22. Vanderbuilt--------------- 2.23
As long as Miles keeps bringing in 3.5+ star rated recruiting classes every year, the Golden Era of LSU Football will continue.
A comparison of talent between SEC and Pac-10 recruiting classes.
Rivals avg. star rated recruiting classes 2004 thru 2008
1. USC------------------------ 4.01
2. Florida--------------------- 3.70
3. LSU------------------------ 3.66
4. Georgia-------------------- 3.59
5. Tennessee----------------- 3.33
6. Bama---------------------- 3.31
7. Auburn-------------------- 3.21
8. California------------------ 3.15
9. UCLA---------------------- 3.13
10. S. Carolina---------------- 3.05
11. Oregon-------------------- 3.00
12. Arizona-------------------- 2.91
13. Arkansas------------------ 2.89
14. Arizona St.---------------- 2.86
15. Ole Piss-------------------- 2.85
16. Washington--------------- 2.77
17. Stanford------------------- 2.63
18. Oregon St.---------------- 2.62
19. Miss. St.------------------- 2.53
20. Washington St.----------- 2.45
21. Kentucky------------------ 2.39
22. Vanderbuilt--------------- 2.23
This post was edited on 8/24/09 at 9:56 am
Posted on 8/24/09 at 10:05 am to Sonny G
And how many coaches can boast that all of their recruits qualified, as is the case with the 25 from 2009. I wonder if the star rankings refered to factor in who actually qualifies.
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