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Message
NIL has caused some ranking parity = approximately 3 ranking spots difference
Posted on 12/21/23 at 10:19 am
Posted on 12/21/23 at 10:19 am
Not that this is a big deal, but interesting conversation. I'm a believer in recruiting rankings in general, but I don't believe they are as dialed in as some people give them credit for.
I think any team in the top 12-15 is still recruiting extremely well, and the main differences at that point are meeting needs, development and attrition.
NIL and the transfer portal have even further clouded those differences.
By my unscientific analysis, NIL has spread out the talent pool, especially at the high end of the spectrum.
On3 has 32 5-stars and they signed with 17 different schools.
Over the last 4 years, the composite score of the No. 1 class has been shrinking, significantly.
2024: 94.513
2023: 95.998
2022: 96.793
2021: 96.459
So, nearly 2 full points which is a big number. It's the difference in the No. 3 class and the No. 18 class.
In 2018, Georgia signed nine 5-stars, USC signed 6 and Clemson signed 5. In 2024, Ohio State signed 4 and no other school signed more than 3.
Using LSU to illustrate the rankings slide:
LSU is No. 10 currently with a score of 91.707
Below is where that exact score would rank over the last 8 seasons:
2024: 10
2023: 11
2022: 9
2021: 11
2020: 9
2019: 7
2018: 7
2017: 7
2016: 5
I think any team in the top 12-15 is still recruiting extremely well, and the main differences at that point are meeting needs, development and attrition.
NIL and the transfer portal have even further clouded those differences.
By my unscientific analysis, NIL has spread out the talent pool, especially at the high end of the spectrum.
On3 has 32 5-stars and they signed with 17 different schools.
Over the last 4 years, the composite score of the No. 1 class has been shrinking, significantly.
2024: 94.513
2023: 95.998
2022: 96.793
2021: 96.459
So, nearly 2 full points which is a big number. It's the difference in the No. 3 class and the No. 18 class.
In 2018, Georgia signed nine 5-stars, USC signed 6 and Clemson signed 5. In 2024, Ohio State signed 4 and no other school signed more than 3.
Using LSU to illustrate the rankings slide:
LSU is No. 10 currently with a score of 91.707
Below is where that exact score would rank over the last 8 seasons:
2024: 10
2023: 11
2022: 9
2021: 11
2020: 9
2019: 7
2018: 7
2017: 7
2016: 5
4
Posted on 12/21/23 at 10:24 am to Bjorn Cyborg
Does that include transfers?
Do you think the average rankings are skewed because teams are taking less 3stars and filling those spots with transfers
Do you think the average rankings are skewed because teams are taking less 3stars and filling those spots with transfers
Posted on 12/21/23 at 10:28 am to crewdepoo
That does not include transfers.
I think it's because the 5-stars and high-end 4-stars are going to different schools due to NIL, and the talent is spreading out.
You can't hoard 6-9 five-stars in the NIL era.
Teams are still signing plenty of 3 stars. In the top 10 classes, there are an average of 8.2 3-stars. Miami has the No. 4 class and signed 14 3-stars. So, I don't think that's it.
I think it's because the 5-stars and high-end 4-stars are going to different schools due to NIL, and the talent is spreading out.
You can't hoard 6-9 five-stars in the NIL era.
Teams are still signing plenty of 3 stars. In the top 10 classes, there are an average of 8.2 3-stars. Miami has the No. 4 class and signed 14 3-stars. So, I don't think that's it.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 10:43 am to Bjorn Cyborg
Great post. People still look at rankings and ratings and think we're still in the pre-NIL/pre-portal days. Your class is not made or broken by high school players anymore.
5 star ratings are typically given to players who appear to be ahead of the others and could contribute early with the potential of being a first round pick. You can now get that same type of player with a year or two of experience, two years in college weight programs and game experience, two years of playing experience.
5 star ratings are typically given to players who appear to be ahead of the others and could contribute early with the potential of being a first round pick. You can now get that same type of player with a year or two of experience, two years in college weight programs and game experience, two years of playing experience.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 11:04 am to Bjorn Cyborg
Where it gets skewed and mis represented is in a year or two if let’s say #1 Georgia class has 5 four star defensive backs and 2 five star linebackers and 3 defensive backs and a linebacker transfer to Auburn or LSU or wherever but LSU only looses 2 3 star dbs to the portal from this class nobody ever updates or keeps track of how these things end up. Signing 4, 5 star receivers looks great on paper but in a year or two only one or two will still be there. Oklahoma 8th ranked class signed 4 safety’s and 3cbs how many of those are there in two years? Look at Michigans recruiting classes last few years, no where near the top but very balanced and consistent.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 3:42 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
Props to OP for a clever and unique viewpoint. Thanks for posting 
Posted on 12/21/23 at 3:57 pm to BiggaGeauxrilla
You should really look at classes position by position over a 2 class period. That'll tell the story of whether you've stacked elite talent and depth throughout your roster.
I would argue that the only place LSU hasn't stacked elite depth is at DT with the past two cycles. Corner doesn't have headline talent, but it has elite depth.
I would argue that the only place LSU hasn't stacked elite depth is at DT with the past two cycles. Corner doesn't have headline talent, but it has elite depth.
Posted on 12/21/23 at 4:04 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
Great post that many here won’t bother reading unfortunately.
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