re: LSU Baseball 2024 (and beyond) Recruiting Thread OLD THREAD

This is what I had in mind. Multiple options to run through for 1B/DH. The draft will make or break it though. Bear, Priester, Arrambide, Stanfield, Hernandez, Braswell all could go with the right number offered.

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I know it's kind of been exhausted on here already but some of the 64Analytics rankings are just complete nonsense.

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It's extremely difficult to come up with any subjective rankings when you're trying to rank over 5000 portal players, so they have to take as objective a look as possible to actually rank that many players.

Guys like Fisher, Neal, Hurd etc are getting massive bumps due to perceived MLB stock.

There's 4 categories they look at, very heavily weighted by far the most to "stats", followed by MLB draft stock followed just after by conference adjustment followed by high school rating last and weighted the least.

For example, compare Fisher with Root:

- Fisher has just a .960 "Stats" rating while Root has a .988, makes sense for Root having better seasons...so .28 better for Root
- Fisher has a .192 MLB draft adjustment where as Root is only .122, so this is a big difference where Fisher is .7 higher and more than erases the stats lead Root had
- Fisher also played in the SEC which getgs a .148 adjustment compared to Root at ECU only getting a .133 adjustment, just more in favor of Fisher again due to competition (.015 in favor of Fisher)
- Fisher also has a .092 high school rating while Root is .087, so these are really close and neglible (.005 diff)

Basically Fisher is ranked so high due to his potential if you will.

Let's compare Neal to Lucas Steel who is their 2nd highest ranked catcher

- Neal only has .832 in "Stats" while Steele has a .973, so big lead for Steele right away on whats happened in college; .141
- Neal has a .153 MLB adj to Steele's .081; so Neal claws back .072 or half that original lead
- Neal and has the .148 conf adj to Steele's at Samford getting a .126, so another .022 clawed back there (or .094 of the .141 now)
- Neal high school rating of .098 compared to Steele 0.000, there's where Neal pulls ahead finally (.192 for the 3 things Neal is ahead on vs. .141 for the 1 thing Steele is ahead on)

So there's your culprit in most cases. I think they should lessen the high school impact over time, not just keep it all the way through. Freshman should maybe get full impact, sophomores maybe half that impact and then by juniors and above 0 impact of high school rating at that point.

For conference adjustment thy just give a flat adjustment to everyone regardless of how much you played. Like Jared Jones if he was in the portal would get a .148 for being on an SEC team, Neal got the same .148 despite Neal BARELY playing against SEC teams by comparison. I think thisis something they should adjust based on ABs or IP against conference to help even things out. We all know Neals .276 average for the season is heavily influenced by mid-week and early season non conference teams, he hit like .170 against SEC teams and the postseason where he got MUCH less playing time than a typical starter would in the SEC.

So there's adjustments I'd make but they also have the wRAE and wRCE which is an even more stats based objective approach in comparing pitchers/hitters if you just want to use that and ignore MLB, high school ratings entirely. It does take into account level of competition, it's explained here.

Fisher is #136 among pitchers in wRAE against someone like Root who is #66.

Neal is #521 among hitters in wRCE against someone like Steele who is #247 among hitters

This thread is where local media gets their information then they proceed to bash TD on air (Mascona)

By the way, Dickinson would make the 5th player we've picked up in 64analytics Top 40 rankings. Or the 4th in the Top 30.

Arkansas is next best with 2 Top 30 and 4 Top 40.

Things look a lot different when you look at wRCE and RAE though

This thread just keeps getting better

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know it's kind of been exhausted on here already but some of the 64Analytics rankings are just complete nonsense.

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The worst thing about the transfer portal is the fans. And sites like these only make it worse. All of a sudden this site has become the Bible because fans do not know how to filter it

Eddie Smith is looking like the next coach at Washington.

I'm glad we got Dickinson locked in before that shook out. Obviously LSU is a better program than Washington, but an opportunity to play at home for the coach that recruited and developed you is pretty big. Especially since they're losing both their middle infielders.

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He has improved every year as he has gained experience. Will probably hit over .300 with 15+ bombs next year. Similar career HR numbers to Pearson with a better overall avg playing all home games on a softball field. A solid return piece for Tony V considering they return next to no one with sec experience.

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He's also a redshirt junior.

So his age is already a factor against him from a pro standpoint.

From an overall quality of college baseball standpoint, this is a good thing. Keeping older, fringe prospect guys in college makes the game better. There needs to be a lot more honest conversations about where guys stand with pro baseball and how pro baseball actually values them. There are only a handful of orgs that try to develop every guy in the minors. The rest just look at everyone as filler.

If you don't have a tool that will get you a decent signing bonus, extend your baseball career by adding years in college. The opportunity when you go pro will be the exact same, but you may have developed a little more before getting there, increasing your odds of sticking.

Braswell is a guy that should probably stick around for similar reasons.

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-LSU & Longhorns have by far the biggest NIL wallets

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I mentioned this once before as well, that a guy (A&M fan) i know is the field manager/worked the d3 softball world series this year and spoke directly with Kevin Griffin. And that while there is zero chance konnor makes it to LSU, he told him that hands down LSU had the best NIL setup

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Eddie Smith is looking like the next coach at Washington.

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Woah. Good for him. Dude was always gonna get to the p5. Impressive listening to him explain the game. And did sole good things at utah valley