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re: LSU Baseball 2022 (and beyond) Recruiting Thread (OLD THREAD, PLEASE STICKY NEW ONE)

Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:06 am to
Posted by lsu777
Lake Charles
Member since Jan 2004
35006 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:06 am to
quote:

If I had to guess I would put them in tiers like this.

Tier 1 (Gone): Crawford, Toman, Romero, Snelling, Misiorowski

Tier 2: Shores, Noot, Neal, Jones, Guidry, Kennedy
- I think 1 of Noot/Shores could make it to campus, but not likely both of them. I still think Neal and Jones may get drafted, but it is a good sign they are both on campus already. It seems Guidry and Kennedy both want to play at LSU and likely both have a high number for a signing bonus.

Tier 3: Herring, Moffett, Kling, Bucknam, Pineda, Young, Tebrake
- Feel like Kling and Herring both plan to play at LSU unless a surprising amount of money gets unexpectedly thrown their way. Moffett is the outlier here that has picked up a little draft buzz recently because of the power arm, but him being on campus already is a good thing and I think he stays on campus. Bucknam is someone I don't really know much of what his plan is in the draft. It seems as though he would like to get drafted since he used his extra year of high school eligibility that is offered in canada. He is also playing in the MLB draft league right now and his numbers are really good. I have him in this tier but he could very well be with the tier above as he may be one that will sign in the draft. As far as the transfer guys, I think Pineda and Young both make it to LSU. Tebrake will be depending on how low his number is for himself. If he gets offered anything more than $400K, I think he may take it by the way he has talked in interviews.



pretty good breakdown.

with romero...i heard he was looking for 2 million and if he at the bottom of round 2, i dunno if he is getting that, but that honestly was kind of just a rumor. But if he goes end of 2nd round, that number is gonna have to come down a good bit....but i have never felt he absolutely wants to be at lsu.

the number i was told on guidry, i feel pretty damn good about based on the latest mock drafts. Guidry imo is opposite of Romero in that oyu have gotten the feeling from the beggining that he wanted to be at LSU and it would take a big amount to change his mind.

but as we know from the past, these things can turn quickly. everyone has a number, thing is a million is a lot of money to an 18 year old and alot when you come from middle class family. So when a team says...final offer...things can change.
Posted by Adam4848
LA
Member since Apr 2006
19521 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:10 am to
quote:

So when a team says...final offer...things can change.


And this is where NIL will help unlike in years past when Garin Cecchini was 1.8 million or won't sign and settled well under at 1.3 million.
Posted by BayTiger13
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2022
2418 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:31 am to
You just have the feeling of Guidry having more ties to LSU and wanting to play for LSU. Seems Romero is a little more indifferent. He wants to play for Jay but knows he can get a good bit of draft money.

quote:

with romero...i heard he was looking for 2 million and if he at the bottom of round 2, i dunno if he is getting that


Romero latest mock had him going to the Mariners at pick 58. Last season pick 56 got 2.1 mil, 57 got 1.8 mil, and pick 62 got 2.6 mil. So like said before, it will depend on what team picks him there and what money they have to move around. If it is the Mariners, they are one of the lower half bonus pool money teams. I still think a team will get close enough to the 2 mil (supposedly) he has his sights on.
Posted by ccarrone0313
Member since Jul 2021
1641 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:32 am to
Where exactly does NIL fit in for that scenario? I’m genuinely asking. We’re not giving anyone over a million dollars to come to school
Posted by BayouPride
Member since Sep 2006
687 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:35 am to
quote:

And this is where NIL will help unlike in years past when Garin Cecchini was 1.8 million or won't sign and settled well under at 1.3 million.



I'm not following you, LSU's NIL is competing against 1.3 million as opposed to 1.8, is that not too big of a gap between our best NIL package and the settled-for number?
Posted by ProjectP2294
South St. Louis city
Member since May 2007
74217 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:38 am to
If a kid knows they're going to have money coming in the next few years whether they go pro or go to school, it will make them less likely to come down on their number.
Posted by BayTiger13
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2022
2418 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:38 am to
I think the way he sees it and the way I interpret what he is trying to say is that NIL can help make the price point lower than his target number. In that instance, he was looking for 1.8 and got 1.3. LSU get him 300K in NIL deals then the 1.3 goes down to 1 mil.

I still don't think that much money will be getting put into NIL deals though.
Posted by bugafor6
Member since Feb 2016
4200 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:40 am to
Yea, those numbers are always inflated from what they will actually take too. Same thing with Turang, where people said he wanted top 15 money and he signed slightly under slot in the 20’s.
Posted by Adam4848
LA
Member since Apr 2006
19521 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:41 am to
quote:

Where exactly does NIL fit in for that scenario? I’m genuinely asking. We’re not giving anyone over a million dollars to come to school


We're not. But a kid coming down 30% on his asking price because he thinks he needs a check now is changing.

quote:

I'm not following you, LSU's NIL is competing against 1.3 million as opposed to 1.8, is that not too big of a gap between our best NIL package and the settled-for number?


See above. LSU is not competing with actual dollar values...kids have more leverage now to not low ball themselves.

quote:

I think the way he sees it and the way I interpret what he is trying to say is that NIL can help make the price point lower than his target number. In that instance, he was looking for 1.8 and got 1.3. LSU get him 300K in NIL deals then the 1.3 goes down to 1 mil.


It's more conceptual than this...years ago it was a big risk going to college basically on 25-50% scholarship and passing up over a million dollars. With NIL, bigger stadiums, SECN, influx of coaches, the SEC has built itself into a minor league system.

There will be no massive NIL deals that compete with millions of dollars but it gives high schoolers leverage.

Kids signed at smaller schools will still take the money at lower bargaining prices. Kids committed to SEC and ACC schools have more bargaining power.
This post was edited on 7/7/22 at 7:57 am
Posted by ProjectP2294
South St. Louis city
Member since May 2007
74217 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:47 am to
quote:

LSU is not competing with actual dollar values...kids have more leverage now to not low ball themselves.


Right. Not coming out of pocket, or even making money in college is going to be enough to turn the corner with some guys. As the NIL number goes up, it could turn more guys.

They have to want to go to school at some level though.

Let's say $1.3MM is the number needed to buy a guy out of going to school in the past. But now he can get $50K/yr for three years and isn't coming out of pocket for school (with the other benefits of college vs low minors), that number looks a lot more like $2MM than $1.3MM.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
70932 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:49 am to
quote:

with romero...i heard he was looking for 2 million and if he at the bottom of round 2, i dunno if he is getting that, but that honestly was kind of just a rumor. But if he goes end of 2nd round, that number is gonna have to come down a good bit....but i have never felt he absolutely wants to be at lsu.



Kids almost always ask for more than their "real" number they will sign for as a negotiating tactic. Say $2M, sign for $1.6M, etc...Just can never really trust what they say or the rumors because it's all for positioning usually.

Kind of like buying a car in the "old days" now (with the craziness there this doesnt hold up anymore...). You go into the dealer knowing the price you're "ok" with, but you tell them a number beneath that as a negotiating tactic. I.E. I'm ok buying this car for $30k, but I'm going to start at saying $28k when they counter for $31k, etc...If oyu end up paying $30k you're fine with that, but if you can get them down to say $29.5k ,you're very happy.
This post was edited on 7/7/22 at 7:55 am
Posted by Adam4848
LA
Member since Apr 2006
19521 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:50 am to
quote:

Kids almost always ask for more than their "real" number they will sign for as a negotiating tactic. Say $2M, sign for $1.6M, etc...Just can never really trust what they say or the rumors because it's all for positioning usually.


This is true. Every family is different. Every situation is different.
Posted by ccarrone0313
Member since Jul 2021
1641 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 7:58 am to
Ah I see. Makes a lot of sense.
Posted by ProjectP2294
South St. Louis city
Member since May 2007
74217 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 8:15 am to
quote:

Anyone have Frey’s summer stats? I saw hit a tank recently.


Ethan Frey:
.382/.475/.735

OPS 1.210, 13 H, 4 2b, 1 3b, 2 HR, 6 BB, 13 K, 40 PA

Zeb Ruddell
.375/.571.750

OPS 1.321, 3 H, 1 2b, 1 3b, 5 BB, 3 K, 4 PA

Not sure why Ruddell hasn't played since 6/24.
This post was edited on 7/7/22 at 8:22 am
Posted by Tigerfan1274
Member since May 2019
4079 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 8:19 am to
quote:

You just have the feeling of Guidry having more ties to LSU and wanting to play for LSU. Seems Romero is a little more indifferent. He wants to play for Jay but knows he can get a good bit of draft money.


Agree. Guidry stated on Moscona’s show that he wanted to play baseball at LSU since he was six. I know Romero loves Jay, but I could see where it would take more money to pull Guidry away.
Posted by bugafor6
Member since Feb 2016
4200 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 8:27 am to
We almost always have an incoming recruit playing for Dansville. I wonder why we didn’t send anyone there this year?
Posted by ProjectP2294
South St. Louis city
Member since May 2007
74217 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 8:29 am to
quote:

We almost always have an incoming recruit playing for Dansville. I wonder why we didn’t send anyone there this year?


Paxton Kling is there now. He arrived after the start of the season because the playoffs run deep into June in PA.
Posted by Naptime
Member since Sep 2020
2211 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 8:32 am to
As simple as recruiting a Louisiana kid and a west cost kid
Posted by BayTiger13
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2022
2418 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 8:33 am to
quote:

Ethan Frey:
.382/.475/.735

OPS 1.210, 13 H, 4 2b, 1 3b, 2 HR, 6 BB, 13 K, 40 PA


I like that a lot. Can you see what positions he has been playing while there? The website for the Rocky Mountain League is pretty bad. The Bee Jays website is not up to date on much either.
Posted by ProjectP2294
South St. Louis city
Member since May 2007
74217 posts
Posted on 7/7/22 at 8:34 am to
I haven't been able to see that on Game Changer.
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