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re: How Much Difference Between 4 star and 5 Star Recruits
Posted on 12/21/23 at 7:14 pm to holdem Tiger
Posted on 12/21/23 at 7:14 pm to holdem Tiger
quote:
I wonder if that fifth star affects the odds of being drafted. I mean from a psychological or expectation perspective, rather than the actual college production.
I read somewhere where the Seattle Seahawk shy away from drafting 5*’s simply because they feel they are spoiled to being superstars and have everything handed to them…looked for a link but can’t find it.
0
Posted on 12/21/23 at 7:27 pm to KCSunshine
Trey Quinn is in the nfl. He just had the worst qbs in lsu history
Posted on 12/21/23 at 7:40 pm to r0cky1
Trey Quinn is not in the NFL, he’s a free agent and has not been part of a team since 2020 and then, only played one game.
This post was edited on 12/21/23 at 7:42 pm
Posted on 12/21/23 at 9:28 pm to KCSunshine
The maximum number of players on an NFL active roster is 53. There are 32 NFL teams, so a maximum of 1,606 players on active rosters. The average length of an NFL career is 3.3 years (Google), obviously varying by position.
So, mathematically, excluding practice squads and injured reserve, on average, teams will have a complete roster turnover every 3.3 years, and the league as a whole will turn over 514 players per year.
The rating services only award 32 5-stars (the number of first-round draft picks). Where do the other 482 players come from? Answer: four, three, two, one and no star players. That means there isn't much difference between five stars and four (or three, etc.)
I wrote on here some time back that I didn't think the average Joe in the stands could tell the difference between a five-star and a four and got roasted for it. I still believe that's mostly true, with the exception of a few really outstanding players in skill positions.
So, mathematically, excluding practice squads and injured reserve, on average, teams will have a complete roster turnover every 3.3 years, and the league as a whole will turn over 514 players per year.
The rating services only award 32 5-stars (the number of first-round draft picks). Where do the other 482 players come from? Answer: four, three, two, one and no star players. That means there isn't much difference between five stars and four (or three, etc.)
I wrote on here some time back that I didn't think the average Joe in the stands could tell the difference between a five-star and a four and got roasted for it. I still believe that's mostly true, with the exception of a few really outstanding players in skill positions.
This post was edited on 12/21/23 at 10:08 pm
Posted on 12/21/23 at 11:05 pm to Powerman
It's not a couple. Only about a third of the 5* signed in the past 10 years were legit stars for LSU or in cfb at all.
Kevin Tolliver II (never panned out)
Donte Jackson (decent nickel at LSU, but has done much better in NFL)
Chidi Okeke (who?)
Michael Divinity (solid LB that played several years, but he wasn't a Perkins type game changer)
Rashard Lawrence (solid, but similar to Divinity above)
Kristian Fulton (Very good, but lost 2 years)
Jacoby Stevens (bounced around positions for several years until he had a good last season at safety)
K'Lavon Chaisson (solid playmaker for us)
Terrace Marshall (stud)
Ja'Marr Chase (stud)
Marcel Brooks (bust)
John Emery (didn't pan out)
Derek Stingley (good his freshman year then bailed out)
Kayshon Boutte (one good year, but was never the same after the knee injury)
Eli Ricks (head case)
Arik Gilbert (great freshman year and then bailed)
Maason Smith (jury is out...this upcoming year will determine his LSU legacy)
Harold Perkins (stud, even though House screwed up his sophomore season)
Da'Shawn Womack (jury still out, but I can't wait to see this guy get turned into the monster he could be.)
Lance Heard (looks like he will be a stud)
These are all the 5* as of the end of the recruiting cycles for 2015 - 2023 according to 247. There are only a handful of guys in this mix that were bonafide stars and there were several that were busts or only had 1 good year. The point being that championship teams are generally built of mostly 4* with a smattering of 5* and 3*. Usually your 3* are depth guys, but there are more than just a few that have had significant playing time and impact on their respective LSU teams (Mason Taylor, Ali Gaye, Cordale Flott, Charles Turner, Jaray Jenkins, Damien Lewis, Saahdiq Charles, Patrick Queen, Neil Farrell, Justin Jefferson, Lloyd Cushenberry, and Foster Moreau from the same 2015-2023 period).
Kevin Tolliver II (never panned out)
Donte Jackson (decent nickel at LSU, but has done much better in NFL)
Chidi Okeke (who?)
Michael Divinity (solid LB that played several years, but he wasn't a Perkins type game changer)
Rashard Lawrence (solid, but similar to Divinity above)
Kristian Fulton (Very good, but lost 2 years)
Jacoby Stevens (bounced around positions for several years until he had a good last season at safety)
K'Lavon Chaisson (solid playmaker for us)
Terrace Marshall (stud)
Ja'Marr Chase (stud)
Marcel Brooks (bust)
John Emery (didn't pan out)
Derek Stingley (good his freshman year then bailed out)
Kayshon Boutte (one good year, but was never the same after the knee injury)
Eli Ricks (head case)
Arik Gilbert (great freshman year and then bailed)
Maason Smith (jury is out...this upcoming year will determine his LSU legacy)
Harold Perkins (stud, even though House screwed up his sophomore season)
Da'Shawn Womack (jury still out, but I can't wait to see this guy get turned into the monster he could be.)
Lance Heard (looks like he will be a stud)
These are all the 5* as of the end of the recruiting cycles for 2015 - 2023 according to 247. There are only a handful of guys in this mix that were bonafide stars and there were several that were busts or only had 1 good year. The point being that championship teams are generally built of mostly 4* with a smattering of 5* and 3*. Usually your 3* are depth guys, but there are more than just a few that have had significant playing time and impact on their respective LSU teams (Mason Taylor, Ali Gaye, Cordale Flott, Charles Turner, Jaray Jenkins, Damien Lewis, Saahdiq Charles, Patrick Queen, Neil Farrell, Justin Jefferson, Lloyd Cushenberry, and Foster Moreau from the same 2015-2023 period).
Posted on 12/21/23 at 11:32 pm to KCSunshine
Last 20 years……
UGA 8 #1 classes two ships
LSU zero #1 classes three ships
Recruiting is the most dumbest thing to melt about in sports
UGA 8 #1 classes two ships
LSU zero #1 classes three ships
Recruiting is the most dumbest thing to melt about in sports
Posted on 12/22/23 at 2:59 am to TexTgrTed
quote:
Reality is classes can’t be predominantly 5-star players
They can't be devoid of them either.
Posted on 12/22/23 at 6:24 am to stho381
Post more.
Posted on 12/22/23 at 7:34 am to KCSunshine
It is just like the outcome of a football game has to be decided on the field of play. So does a recruits future performance. You make educated guesses based on the tangibles, but the intangibles are not revealed till they get on the field of play. So, drive, work ethic, team play, coaching, character, and many more are not measurable but are so important to overall value. An inexact science at best, but better than drawing straws.
Posted on 12/22/23 at 7:36 am to KCSunshine
Trey Quinn was barely a 4 star. Poor example.
Posted on 12/22/23 at 7:42 am to FireawayLSU
quote:
Last 20 years……
UGA 8 #1 classes two ships
LSU zero #1 classes three ships
Recruiting is the most dumbest thing to melt about in sports
Not an accurate comparison.
UGA has about 4 #1 classes in that time frame & most have been in last 8 years. UGA's recruiting has improved & LSU's has dropped off, mostly due to NIL. Recruiting matters
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