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Bates and Welter and examining our un(der)ranked players
Posted on 7/22/09 at 7:08 pm
Posted on 7/22/09 at 7:08 pm
Okay, so to me in the recruiting game there are the players that have the big offer sheets and stars next to their names, and then the players who are under the radar, or on the periphery of the radar. In-state, guys like Vinson, Trovon Reed, Eric Reid, etc have always been on the radar, and players like Mike Davis, Justin Hunter, Justin Maclin, Zach Lee, who are highly ranked out of state prospects are always celebrated when they commit. Then you have guys like Tharold Simon, Houston Bates, Cam Fordham, Nick Jacobs, DJ Welter, Sam Gibson, etc who are evaluated in the spring or show up in the summer and earn an offer, oftentimes raising the eyebrow of people here, including myself (as in my first reaction is "why are we taking this guy now when he is not as highly thought of as some other prospect) For these guys, it takes a little further rationalization before I can say "okay, I think this is a great take by the coaches and I feel like I have some insight into what they might be thinking in regards to this player's potential."
These are the guys raised my eyebrows and who I have since rationalized as being great prospects who were simply not evaluated by Rivals, Scout, etc, or under ranked by those sites:
Mathieu - rave reviews at UT camp, offered on the spot at LSU camp. From NOLA and so under the radar is not atypical, so I get this one. Pure cover corner.
Muncie - at the surface, very good measurables and a guy who plays safety well in HS will have some range as an LB, which is what he was recruited as. Plus very positive reports from this camp about his athleticism and potential.
Nick Jacobs - Big kid with big athleticism and can play TE, DE, DT, OL, whatever. From Many, Louisiana, so of course he will not have been evaluated by website. Good take.
Sam Gibson - First reaction, why are we offering a kid from Alabama who didn't have UA or Auburn offers. Second reaction, he shows up at a camp, runs a 4.45 at 6'2 200 lbs, and shows big upside as a safety.
Tharold Simon - No more questions about him when his film came out. It spoke for itself.
Cameron Fordham - He is a good jumbo athlete, and I can't second guess coaches who see him as a center when he has 3 years to develop, gain weight and strength, before he hits the field. I prefer athletes on the OL, so I'm convinced he is a good take.
Elliot Porter - Sort of the same story as Fordham, hard to judge OL talent and if he is athletic enough to play DL then I look at that as a huge plus. Unranked when he committed, now a 4-star.
Worle - Good looking fullback, good size, will probably Redshirt and put a year between him and Allen. FB isn't very sexy but guys like Worle are needed.
NOW, the two commits that I haven't rationalized yet:
Welter - Offered way early IMO. Looks to have good speed, but small'ish, and unverified height/weight/speed. I just don't know anything about him
Bates - Too small to play DE and not fluid enough to be a LB. Also offered way early IMO.
I'm not knocking these two, I think they will contribute at some point. But at first glance they don't appear to have the upside that your typical LSU recruit has. They look like your Les Miles yearly "offer a guy with a high motor and if he never starts he'll be a great Special Teams player." Well, that's great and all, but one legacy that Saban left that I truly appreciated is that your best athletes should be on the field at all times, including on special teams. Do any knowledgeable posters here have some insight into Bates and Welter's game? Obviously I've never seen these two play in person and am operating under assumption and intuition more than true insight, so I would like to be proven wrong.
PS please refrain from "if they were good enough for the coaches, they're good enough for me" While it's a valid opinion, it does not further the conversation at all.
These are the guys raised my eyebrows and who I have since rationalized as being great prospects who were simply not evaluated by Rivals, Scout, etc, or under ranked by those sites:
Mathieu - rave reviews at UT camp, offered on the spot at LSU camp. From NOLA and so under the radar is not atypical, so I get this one. Pure cover corner.
Muncie - at the surface, very good measurables and a guy who plays safety well in HS will have some range as an LB, which is what he was recruited as. Plus very positive reports from this camp about his athleticism and potential.
Nick Jacobs - Big kid with big athleticism and can play TE, DE, DT, OL, whatever. From Many, Louisiana, so of course he will not have been evaluated by website. Good take.
Sam Gibson - First reaction, why are we offering a kid from Alabama who didn't have UA or Auburn offers. Second reaction, he shows up at a camp, runs a 4.45 at 6'2 200 lbs, and shows big upside as a safety.
Tharold Simon - No more questions about him when his film came out. It spoke for itself.
Cameron Fordham - He is a good jumbo athlete, and I can't second guess coaches who see him as a center when he has 3 years to develop, gain weight and strength, before he hits the field. I prefer athletes on the OL, so I'm convinced he is a good take.
Elliot Porter - Sort of the same story as Fordham, hard to judge OL talent and if he is athletic enough to play DL then I look at that as a huge plus. Unranked when he committed, now a 4-star.
Worle - Good looking fullback, good size, will probably Redshirt and put a year between him and Allen. FB isn't very sexy but guys like Worle are needed.
NOW, the two commits that I haven't rationalized yet:
Welter - Offered way early IMO. Looks to have good speed, but small'ish, and unverified height/weight/speed. I just don't know anything about him
Bates - Too small to play DE and not fluid enough to be a LB. Also offered way early IMO.
I'm not knocking these two, I think they will contribute at some point. But at first glance they don't appear to have the upside that your typical LSU recruit has. They look like your Les Miles yearly "offer a guy with a high motor and if he never starts he'll be a great Special Teams player." Well, that's great and all, but one legacy that Saban left that I truly appreciated is that your best athletes should be on the field at all times, including on special teams. Do any knowledgeable posters here have some insight into Bates and Welter's game? Obviously I've never seen these two play in person and am operating under assumption and intuition more than true insight, so I would like to be proven wrong.
PS please refrain from "if they were good enough for the coaches, they're good enough for me" While it's a valid opinion, it does not further the conversation at all.
Posted on 7/22/09 at 7:14 pm to tigerfan4120
at the end of the day, every class has head scratchers in it. Go back and look at 02-04 classes, you'll find a butt-load of names that will make you say "why did we sign him?"
Posted on 7/22/09 at 7:20 pm to tigerfan4120
nice post.
I don't think the size thing for Welter will be an issue. The system calls for quick athletic linebackers. If he gets up to 225 or so (Ian Gold) he'll be fine. As far as Bates goes he actually goes to my old High School. I have a friend who is checking in on him for me to see what he can find out. I would try but they aren't too fond of me .
I don't think the size thing for Welter will be an issue. The system calls for quick athletic linebackers. If he gets up to 225 or so (Ian Gold) he'll be fine. As far as Bates goes he actually goes to my old High School. I have a friend who is checking in on him for me to see what he can find out. I would try but they aren't too fond of me .
Posted on 7/22/09 at 7:32 pm to tigerfan4120
nice post.. almost looking forward to HS season just as much as college just so we can get some more info on these players, especially the ones that came out of relative anonimity to recieving lsu offers.. bates is prob the most interesting commit thus far.. sounds like he could be a j.d. lott after reading some of the comments about him.. after seeing tyrann first hand in 7 v 7 this weekend and hearing some coaches say he's the best cover corner they've seen really gets you jacked fro the season to get here!
Posted on 7/22/09 at 7:35 pm to tigerfan4120
awesome post
DJ Welter was also offered by Bama
DJ Welter was also offered by Bama
Posted on 7/22/09 at 7:36 pm to ForeLSU
I'm not knocking these two, I think they will contribute at some point. But at first glance they don't appear to have the upside that your typical LSU recruit has. They look like your Les Miles yearly "offer a guy with a high motor and if he never starts he'll be a great Special Teams player." Well, that's great and all, but one legacy that Saban left that I truly appreciated is that your best athletes should be on the field at all times, including on special teams. Do any knowledgeable posters here have some insight into Bates and Welter's game? Obviously I've never seen these two play in person and am operating under assumption and intuition more than true insight, so I would like to be proven wrong.
PS please refrain from "if they were good enough for the coaches, they're good enough for me" While it's a valid opinion, it does not further the conversation at all.
This may be the worst post that I have ever seen on any of the boards that I am affliated with. Did you observe these young men at camp? Did you evaluate the upside of these two excellent young men? Have you any training in evauating talent? How did you form your judgment of their lack of upside? What does Saban putting the best players on the field have to do with the ability of these two young men? Do you have a problem with the guys that Les has on special teams? Which players do you think should not be on the LSU special team? And you made this evaluation on your own and have never seen them play.
I am going to EMAIL a copy of your post to Les and show him the error of his ways. Maybe he will hire you as a special recruiting consultant.
PS please refrain from "if they were good enough for the coaches, they're good enough for me" While it's a valid opinion, it does not further the conversation at all.
This may be the worst post that I have ever seen on any of the boards that I am affliated with. Did you observe these young men at camp? Did you evaluate the upside of these two excellent young men? Have you any training in evauating talent? How did you form your judgment of their lack of upside? What does Saban putting the best players on the field have to do with the ability of these two young men? Do you have a problem with the guys that Les has on special teams? Which players do you think should not be on the LSU special team? And you made this evaluation on your own and have never seen them play.
I am going to EMAIL a copy of your post to Les and show him the error of his ways. Maybe he will hire you as a special recruiting consultant.
Posted on 7/22/09 at 8:00 pm to kennymorgan
quote:
This may be the worst post that I have ever seen on any of the boards that I am affliated with.
Absolutely not. He makes lots of interesting points and writes in a coherent manner. Obviously you know that his answers to most of those questions will be "No", but it doesn't mean that these kinds of things should be ignored. Most of the writers on Rivals and Scout haven't worked as scouts or coaches either, yet they have created a pretty good model for evaluating players.
Most of the political commentators on television and radio have no experience in government, elected office, or in think thanks that work with government. Hell, a decent percentage aren't even college graduates. Does that mean that no one just discuss politics except for a specific political elite?
Of course not, and the same kind of thinking should be applied to sports, movies, or any other field.
Posted on 7/22/09 at 8:44 pm to kennymorgan
quote:
kennymorgan
You arent too bright are you?
quote:
tigerfan4120
I thought that was an excellent post. Well thought and and straight to the point. while we all may ot agree with everything you said, your opinion is valid and deserves to be heard as much as anyone else's. Don't let people like that idiot deter you from what you're doing. If all of your posts are this good, I look forward to reading more. Keep up the good work
This post was edited on 7/22/09 at 8:46 pm
Posted on 7/22/09 at 9:00 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:
This may be the worst post that I have ever seen on any of the boards that I am affliated with. Did you observe these young men at camp? Did you evaluate the upside of these two excellent young men? Have you any training in evauating talent? How did you form your judgment of their lack of upside? What does Saban putting the best players on the field have to do with the ability of these two young men? Do you have a problem with the guys that Les has on special teams? Which players do you think should not be on the LSU special team? And you made this evaluation on your own and have never seen them play.
Did you read any of his post?
Posted on 7/22/09 at 9:02 pm to tigerfan4120
Bates is the only guy that I really don't understand us offering but whatever. Coaches know more than me.
Posted on 7/22/09 at 9:13 pm to kennymorgan
You said:
I said, in the original post:
I shouldn't comment on your post since your criticism had already been addressed and acknowledged, but I tried to make it as clear as possible that I am just a dude who follows LSU recruiting and LSU football. I played tennis in high school, not football. I have absolutely no credentials as a scout.
I do have several years of following recruiting that I would like to think gives my observations and intuitions at least some validity, enough to where I believe in them. J.D. Lott was a great example that a previous poster brought up as a reference point for how I feel about those two particular recruits.
I do think it is true Saban put his best players as ST gunners, like Clayton and Justin Vincent. Miles puts lots of young guys and high-motor types on Special Teams. They have different philosophies. And while I said I appreciated that legacy of Saban's, I think Miles' works very well too because you are putting 11 hungry young guys on the field. Shouldn't have even brought up a Saban vs Miles point as it touches a nerve, and for the record I think that Miles is a better recruiter and evaluator of talent (and character) than Saban, especially OL. You have 85 scholarships to give, and I think Miles gives you a better top to bottom 85 man roster.
quote:
This may be the worst post that I have ever seen on any of the boards that I am affliated with. Did you observe these young men at camp? Did you evaluate the upside of these two excellent young men? Have you any training in evauating talent? How did you form your judgment of their lack of upside? What does Saban putting the best players on the field have to do with the ability of these two young men? Do you have a problem with the guys that Les has on special teams? Which players do you think should not be on the LSU special team? And you made this evaluation on your own and have never seen them play.
I said, in the original post:
quote:
Obviously I've never seen these two play in person and am operating under assumption and intuition more than true insight, so I would like to be proven wrong.
I shouldn't comment on your post since your criticism had already been addressed and acknowledged, but I tried to make it as clear as possible that I am just a dude who follows LSU recruiting and LSU football. I played tennis in high school, not football. I have absolutely no credentials as a scout.
I do have several years of following recruiting that I would like to think gives my observations and intuitions at least some validity, enough to where I believe in them. J.D. Lott was a great example that a previous poster brought up as a reference point for how I feel about those two particular recruits.
I do think it is true Saban put his best players as ST gunners, like Clayton and Justin Vincent. Miles puts lots of young guys and high-motor types on Special Teams. They have different philosophies. And while I said I appreciated that legacy of Saban's, I think Miles' works very well too because you are putting 11 hungry young guys on the field. Shouldn't have even brought up a Saban vs Miles point as it touches a nerve, and for the record I think that Miles is a better recruiter and evaluator of talent (and character) than Saban, especially OL. You have 85 scholarships to give, and I think Miles gives you a better top to bottom 85 man roster.
Posted on 7/22/09 at 9:16 pm to tigerfan4120
Good post. I'm from the Northshore and I have seen Bates play twice and he didn't blow me away other than the fact that he never quits on a play (que the high motor comments). I watched St Pauls play Mandeville and he didn't do much (Mandy's line was decent at best). Just don't know because I don't think he can gain enough weight for DL and the clips I him at LB were pretty shaky. Hope he develops and can contribute and prove he is worth it. I'm going to make a point to go to a couple of his games this year as well.
Posted on 7/22/09 at 9:18 pm to deuce985
quote:
Bates is the only guy that I really don't understand us offering but whatever. Coaches know more than me.
Did you see any of his film? He is non-stop and was hard to block. He'll probably bulk up to 240-250 and be a pass rusher.
Posted on 7/22/09 at 9:20 pm to tigerfan4120
That was a pretty solid post. You should hang around more.
Posted on 7/22/09 at 9:22 pm to offshoretrash
We've played St. Paul before...and I never even knew who Bates was until LSU started showing him interest. Not that one game proves anything...just saying.
This post was edited on 7/22/09 at 9:23 pm
Posted on 7/22/09 at 9:27 pm to deuce985
I always seem to pull for the underdogs.
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