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247 team ranking disparity
Posted on 12/22/17 at 8:36 am
Posted on 12/22/17 at 8:36 am
Let me start by saying I take the star ranking and team ranking stuff for what it’s worth. By its nature player rankings will always be arbitrary. Still, the rankings have some merit. And it provides for fun discussion for this who do not take it so seriously. I have always enjoyed the secondary sport of following recruiting and with the development of recruiting services and the internet we get so much more information.
In trying to figure out if LSU can sneak into the top ten in team recruiting rankings I looked at teams we would have to pass. It will be hard even with a couple five stars in Surtain and Marshall, but maybe doable. In looking I noticed an apparent discrepancy that is probably explained by the variation among 4 stars and 3 stars within their own star ratings. Put another way, some three stars are more valuable than other 3 stars.
Auburn has an impressive 14 four star commits and 6 three stars, but is only ranked 10th, behind Oklahoma with 9 four stars and 11 three stars and behind Notre Dame with 10 three and four stars each.
The bottom line is while the rankings have some merit, they can’t measure things that precisely. There isnt much difference between a ten ranking and a five ranking. That said, I do think there will be a significant talent gap between LSU class and Georgia class even assuming we get all our top targets left. Georgia has an incredible 6 five star players and among those there will be true impact players.
Kids look at depth charts though, and it will be hard for Georgia to reproduce that class year in and out. LSU will end up with a very competitive class this year no matter the rank and with a bumper crop in La next year, Orgeron should have plenty enough talent to win. Coaching will be the difference among these teams and only time will tell if Orgeron has evolved as a coach.
In trying to figure out if LSU can sneak into the top ten in team recruiting rankings I looked at teams we would have to pass. It will be hard even with a couple five stars in Surtain and Marshall, but maybe doable. In looking I noticed an apparent discrepancy that is probably explained by the variation among 4 stars and 3 stars within their own star ratings. Put another way, some three stars are more valuable than other 3 stars.
Auburn has an impressive 14 four star commits and 6 three stars, but is only ranked 10th, behind Oklahoma with 9 four stars and 11 three stars and behind Notre Dame with 10 three and four stars each.
The bottom line is while the rankings have some merit, they can’t measure things that precisely. There isnt much difference between a ten ranking and a five ranking. That said, I do think there will be a significant talent gap between LSU class and Georgia class even assuming we get all our top targets left. Georgia has an incredible 6 five star players and among those there will be true impact players.
Kids look at depth charts though, and it will be hard for Georgia to reproduce that class year in and out. LSU will end up with a very competitive class this year no matter the rank and with a bumper crop in La next year, Orgeron should have plenty enough talent to win. Coaching will be the difference among these teams and only time will tell if Orgeron has evolved as a coach.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 8:48 am to paper tiger
247 is also owned by a gump
Posted on 12/22/17 at 8:51 am to paper tiger
You are probably right on Georgia no being able to replicate this every year. However, we already have three of the top ten committed for 2019.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 8:53 am to paper tiger
The 247 composite is great because it takes into account multiple scouting agencies. Pay attention to the actual rating, not the number of stars.
Whats the difference between 27th and 28th overall? This year, a star. Actual rating difference? 0.9837 vs 0.9829. Thats a rounding error. But if you just look at stars its a different story.
Whats the difference between 27th and 28th overall? This year, a star. Actual rating difference? 0.9837 vs 0.9829. Thats a rounding error. But if you just look at stars its a different story.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 8:56 am to Darth Ren
quote:
247 is also owned by a gump
Not even close, owned by CBSSports after it was purchased from Shannon Terry who is a graduate of Lipscomb University who now lives in Nashville.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 9:05 am to paper tiger
When you look at our class we have a lot of 4 stars, but we actually have lower ranked 4 stars. Cherry who likely signs with us today would be our highest ranked player (not including Marshall yet) at .9247 which is not a high 4 star.
If we signed our anticipated final group of Marshall, Surtain, Joseph, Goodrich and Chase (maybe Joiner if the kicker scholly gets moved off the 2018 books) every one of those players is higher ranked than Cherry. We will have 2 5 star players. 2017 we had 1 5*, 14 4* and 9 3*. 2018 would be 2 5*, 13 4* and 9 3* (excluding kicker slot if he counts).
This will be a very good class that filled needs and added some big impact players.
If we signed our anticipated final group of Marshall, Surtain, Joseph, Goodrich and Chase (maybe Joiner if the kicker scholly gets moved off the 2018 books) every one of those players is higher ranked than Cherry. We will have 2 5 star players. 2017 we had 1 5*, 14 4* and 9 3*. 2018 would be 2 5*, 13 4* and 9 3* (excluding kicker slot if he counts).
This will be a very good class that filled needs and added some big impact players.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 9:11 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
You are probably right on Georgia no being able to replicate this every year. However, we already have three of the top ten committed for 2019.
Wow... that is truly impressive. And there still is another GA kid in the Top 10 uncommitted, and 2 others in Top 20. If UGA locks down their state that would be 6 in the “early” Top 20 247 rankings.
Where’s the little snitch that turned in the Ole Miss program when you need him?
This post was edited on 12/22/17 at 9:14 am
Posted on 12/22/17 at 9:32 am to alumni95
Pappoe will be the 4th one. And us finally closing the border for a couple of years is fishy? 80% of the five stars came from Georgia.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 9:34 am to paper tiger
quote:
Auburn has an impressive 14 four star commits and 6 three stars, but is only ranked 10th, behind Oklahoma with 9 four stars and 11 three stars and behind Notre Dame with 10 three and four stars each.
I wouldn't want Auburn's class over ours. Completely filled with WRs, DBs and QBs.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 9:36 am to paper tiger
I just dont understand these threads. Les Miles had a number of high profile classes with "star" athletes and LSU had Bama drag their nutts all over us on the Oline and Dline.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 10:01 am to paper tiger
If you read how they calculate the rankings, your top guys count the most. Therefore if we get the two guys signing today, we will see a nice jump in rank, since they would be our #1 & #2 ranked players in the class, to date!
Posted on 12/22/17 at 10:09 am to jcole4lsu
quote:
Thats a rounding error.
Sure, but when your rgument for parity is that 20 rounding errors were made, and all to your disadvantage, you probably are suffering from delusion.
The best two arguments for this class are:
1. Louisiana guys are often underrated, and
2. We focused on position groups that typically are not as valued by the rankers.
This post was edited on 12/22/17 at 10:10 am
Posted on 12/22/17 at 10:12 am to Penrod
quote:
Sure, but when your rgument for parity is that 20 rounding errors were made, and all to your disadvantage, you probably are suffering from delusion.
I'm making no argument for or against this class. I am making the argument to view the ratings, not the stars, to make a more accurate assessment of classes.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 11:16 am to JayDeerTay84
quote:fricking moron.
I just dont understand these threads. Les Miles had a number of high profile classes with "star" athletes and LSU had Bama drag their nutts all over us on the Oline and Dline.
Bama beat LSU because, although Miles pulled in great classes, Bama pulled in better classes every year Saban was there.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 11:20 am to Salviati
quote:
Bama beat LSU because, although Miles pulled in great classes, Bama pulled in better classes every year Saban was there.
That was the only reason.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 11:28 am to Salviati
You mean better classes in the trenches
Posted on 12/22/17 at 11:39 am to Salviati
Bama beat LSU because Nick Saban is a better coach than miles
Posted on 12/22/17 at 11:57 am to paper tiger
quote:
Georgia has an incredible 6 five star players and among those there will be true impact players.
keeping them happy and not creating the attrition avalanche will be key to these juggernaut classes. which you cover nicely in your closing statement.
quote:
Kids look at depth charts though, and it will be hard for Georgia to reproduce that class year in and out
The Process will be the biggest part of measuring their success.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 12:00 pm to paper tiger
quote:
Kids look at depth charts though,
didnt stop UGA from signing a 5 star QB despite the current logjam at QB they have.
Didnt stop FSU last year from signing 3 top RBs.
This post was edited on 12/22/17 at 12:13 pm
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