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24/7 vs On3 Class of 2021
Posted on 8/1/23 at 10:43 am
Posted on 8/1/23 at 10:43 am
I've seen some threads and comments regarding which service evaluates prospects most accurately. I wanted to see how prospects, where the services differed in opinion (24/7 and On3 only), were performing. This analysis is limited as On3's first class evaluation was in 2021. These prospects will be going into their third year of college football and could be set to have a big breakout year, so don't get your panties in a wad. It's also not a comprehensive review. Just a glance at some of the higher-rated prospects.
I focused on position ranking but did include 5 and 4-star differences. That's a more accurate representation where the service believed a prospect stacked up against his peers. I also did not include players who have dealt with serious injuries. Mason Smith, for example.
Noteworthy:
Shemar Turner (Texas A&M DL) -
On3 5* #4 DL
24/7 4* #10 DL
11 games played in '22 - 32 tackles, .5 sacks
Sam Huard (Washington QB transfer to Cal Poly) -
On3 #7 qb
24/7 #2 qb
Total bust
Agiye Hall (Bama transfer to Texas to TBD) -
On3 5* #1 WR
24/7 4* #7 WR
5 career receptions
Keanu Koht (Bama Rush LB)
On3 5* #1 LB
24/7 4* #5 LB
Only saw special teams action in 4 games as a soph
Jaxson Dart (USC transfer to Ole Miss)
On3 5* #3 QB
24/7 4* #19 QB
Has already started 19 games in his college career and has thrown for 4300 yards
Xavian Sorey (UGA LB)
On3 #16 LB
24/7 #4 LB
Special teamer
JJ McCarthy (Mich LB)
On3 #17 QB
24/7 #5 QB
Led team to playoffs
Damon Payne (Bama DL)
On3 #17 DL
24/7 #5 DL
limited reps as backup
Xavier Worthy (Texas WR)
On3 5* #2 WR
24/7 4* #13 WR
1700 career receiving yards. Future first-round pick.
LJ Johnson ( Texas A&M transferred to SMU)
On3 #9 RB
24/7 #3 RB
Nothing at A&M. Transferred to SMU.
Reuben Fatheree (A&M OT)
On3 #7 OT
24/7 #17 OT
21 games started
Monkell Goodwine (Bama DL)
On3 #8 DL
24/7 #17 DL
hardly seen field
Lorenzo Styles (ND WR transferred to Ohio State as DB)
On3 #4 WR
24/7 #18 WR
54 career receptions
Marvin Harrison Jr (Ohio State WR)
On3 5* #3 WR
24/7 4* #21 WR
Best WR in CFB
Derrick Davis (LSU S transfer to Pitt)
On3 #17 S
24/7 #5 S
Tyler Buchner (ND QB transfer to Bama)
On3 #20 QB
24/7 #9 QB
Prince Kollie (ND LB transfer to Vandy)
On3 #3 LB
24/7 #12 LB
18 career tackles
I focused on position ranking but did include 5 and 4-star differences. That's a more accurate representation where the service believed a prospect stacked up against his peers. I also did not include players who have dealt with serious injuries. Mason Smith, for example.
Noteworthy:
Shemar Turner (Texas A&M DL) -
On3 5* #4 DL
24/7 4* #10 DL
11 games played in '22 - 32 tackles, .5 sacks
Sam Huard (Washington QB transfer to Cal Poly) -
On3 #7 qb
24/7 #2 qb
Total bust
Agiye Hall (Bama transfer to Texas to TBD) -
On3 5* #1 WR
24/7 4* #7 WR
5 career receptions
Keanu Koht (Bama Rush LB)
On3 5* #1 LB
24/7 4* #5 LB
Only saw special teams action in 4 games as a soph
Jaxson Dart (USC transfer to Ole Miss)
On3 5* #3 QB
24/7 4* #19 QB
Has already started 19 games in his college career and has thrown for 4300 yards
Xavian Sorey (UGA LB)
On3 #16 LB
24/7 #4 LB
Special teamer
JJ McCarthy (Mich LB)
On3 #17 QB
24/7 #5 QB
Led team to playoffs
Damon Payne (Bama DL)
On3 #17 DL
24/7 #5 DL
limited reps as backup
Xavier Worthy (Texas WR)
On3 5* #2 WR
24/7 4* #13 WR
1700 career receiving yards. Future first-round pick.
LJ Johnson ( Texas A&M transferred to SMU)
On3 #9 RB
24/7 #3 RB
Nothing at A&M. Transferred to SMU.
Reuben Fatheree (A&M OT)
On3 #7 OT
24/7 #17 OT
21 games started
Monkell Goodwine (Bama DL)
On3 #8 DL
24/7 #17 DL
hardly seen field
Lorenzo Styles (ND WR transferred to Ohio State as DB)
On3 #4 WR
24/7 #18 WR
54 career receptions
Marvin Harrison Jr (Ohio State WR)
On3 5* #3 WR
24/7 4* #21 WR
Best WR in CFB
Derrick Davis (LSU S transfer to Pitt)
On3 #17 S
24/7 #5 S
Tyler Buchner (ND QB transfer to Bama)
On3 #20 QB
24/7 #9 QB
Prince Kollie (ND LB transfer to Vandy)
On3 #3 LB
24/7 #12 LB
18 career tackles
11
Posted on 8/1/23 at 10:54 am to skullhawk
You should've compared mainly players that are actually good.
Then you could see who had the correct ranking.
Then you could see who had the correct ranking.
This post was edited on 8/1/23 at 10:55 am
Posted on 8/1/23 at 10:57 am to skullhawk
On3 didn't launch until Aug 21, which would be after the 21 class signed. When was their recruiting staff hired? I can see them doing evaluations to work out their processes, but I bet they were highly focused on the 22 class. Most likely the 21 data is stuff they brought over from their previous jobs.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 10:59 am to skullhawk
quote:
Keanu Koht (Bama Rush LB)
On3 5* #1 LB
24/7 4* #5 LB
Only saw special teams action in 4 games as a soph
I may be mistaken but I think LSU had his commitment before he spun to Bama. I remember really liking this guy...
Posted on 8/1/23 at 11:02 am to skullhawk
Not really sure what you’re saying here.
Bottom line is, the teams with the best players typically win more. I know everyone loves to tout the gritty 3* guy from Bogalusa, and so do I. But a roster full of 3* talent is Kentucky.
I do not want to be Kentucky.
Bottom line is, the teams with the best players typically win more. I know everyone loves to tout the gritty 3* guy from Bogalusa, and so do I. But a roster full of 3* talent is Kentucky.
I do not want to be Kentucky.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 11:06 am to Chalkywhite84
quote:
You should've compared mainly players that are actually good.
Then you could see who had the correct ranking.
I can't force big ranking differences to only players that have produced. A player being a bust is noteworthy if one service had them at the top of their position group and another did not.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 11:09 am to grizzlylongcut
quote:
Not really sure what you’re saying here.
quote:
I've seen some threads and comments regarding which service evaluates prospects most accurately. I wanted to see how prospects, where the services differed in opinion (24/7 and On3 only), were performing.
quote:
Bottom line is, the teams with the best players typically win more. I know everyone loves to tout the gritty 3* guy from Bogalusa, and so do I. But a roster full of 3* talent is Kentucky.
I do not want to be Kentucky.
noted
Posted on 8/1/23 at 11:14 am to skullhawk
23 class
Arch Manning bust
Arch Manning bust
Posted on 8/1/23 at 11:36 am to skullhawk
On3 is better now. 247 is a shell barely hanging on. Follow Shannon Terry. Whichever he's still in charge of(on3 in this case) is the standard even if the others don't realize it yet. He started all 3 so makes sense he's the visionary.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 11:37 am to skullhawk
So basically it’s an educated guess. Breaking News
Posted on 8/1/23 at 12:08 pm to fOrEvErLsU1987
quote:
So basically it’s an educated guess.
And the Bama Bump is real.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 1:19 pm to skullhawk
So what you're saying is??
Posted on 8/1/23 at 1:46 pm to tigersaint24
quote:
So what you're saying is??
It's hard to say definitively which service ranked this class more accurately, especially only looking at the top of the class. Additionally, the two services are almost in lockstep for MOST prospects. I will revisit this next year for the class of 2022 to see if that holds true.
Based on this quick glance, I'd give a slight edge to On3 due to the Dart, Worthy, and Harrison evals.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 2:37 pm to skullhawk
quote:
Keanu Koht (Bama Rush LB)
I was fired up about this dude before he flipped
Posted on 8/1/23 at 2:42 pm to skullhawk
Just did a review of 247sports Top 32 (5 stars) and the 18 players ranked just below 5 stars (97) for 2017 the last year that full eligibility is exhausted (due to potential extra Covid year of eligibility). All drafted players were chosen in the 2020 or 2021 drafts (third and fourth years in the program(s)), no one on the list was chosen in 2022 or 2023.
In the top 32
10 drafted in 1st round
3 drafted in 2nd round
2 drafted in 3rd round
3 drafted in 4th round
2 drafted in 5th round
4 drafted in 6th round
0 drafted om 7th round
8 went undrafted
The next 18
3 drafted in 1st round
5 drafted in 2nd round
1 drafted in 3rd round
1 drafted in 4th round
8 went undrafted
Quick recap:
roughly 1/3 went undrafted
roughly 1/3 were drafted in round 1
and the final 1/3 was a mixed bag.
Overall:
13/50 = 26% drafted in 1st round
21/50 = 42% drafted in first two rounds
24/50 = 48% drafted in first three rounds
28/50 = 56% drafted in first four rounds
30/50 = 60% drafted in first five rounds
34/50 = 68% drafted in first six rounds
16/50 = 32% were not drafted.
26% absolute hit rate and 32% absolute miss rate in the 2017 Top 50.
Conclusion:
The rankings are a mixed bag and that is why these services (On3, Rivals, 247sports and ESPN Recruiting) are directed at the fan-side consumer and not at the professional side, the coaching and recruiting staffs of the NCAA football playing schools.
ETA: Used 247sports for the 2017 list of top players due to the fact they were the "gold standard" for recruiting sites in 2017. Please note Barton Simmons their lead analyst (ranker) was still with 247 in 2017. Simmons left 247 and now works for Vanderbilt in their recruiting department.
In the top 32
10 drafted in 1st round
3 drafted in 2nd round
2 drafted in 3rd round
3 drafted in 4th round
2 drafted in 5th round
4 drafted in 6th round
0 drafted om 7th round
8 went undrafted
The next 18
3 drafted in 1st round
5 drafted in 2nd round
1 drafted in 3rd round
1 drafted in 4th round
8 went undrafted
Quick recap:
roughly 1/3 went undrafted
roughly 1/3 were drafted in round 1
and the final 1/3 was a mixed bag.
Overall:
13/50 = 26% drafted in 1st round
21/50 = 42% drafted in first two rounds
24/50 = 48% drafted in first three rounds
28/50 = 56% drafted in first four rounds
30/50 = 60% drafted in first five rounds
34/50 = 68% drafted in first six rounds
16/50 = 32% were not drafted.
26% absolute hit rate and 32% absolute miss rate in the 2017 Top 50.
Conclusion:
The rankings are a mixed bag and that is why these services (On3, Rivals, 247sports and ESPN Recruiting) are directed at the fan-side consumer and not at the professional side, the coaching and recruiting staffs of the NCAA football playing schools.
ETA: Used 247sports for the 2017 list of top players due to the fact they were the "gold standard" for recruiting sites in 2017. Please note Barton Simmons their lead analyst (ranker) was still with 247 in 2017. Simmons left 247 and now works for Vanderbilt in their recruiting department.
This post was edited on 8/1/23 at 2:51 pm
Posted on 8/1/23 at 3:26 pm to skullhawk
I only really know Jaxson Dart and Marvin Harrison.
Dart seems like a really good QB for what so saw of him as a first year starter.
Harrison considered the best WR in years.
Based on only these two, I’d say On3 was better.
Dart seems like a really good QB for what so saw of him as a first year starter.
Harrison considered the best WR in years.
Based on only these two, I’d say On3 was better.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 4:02 pm to skullhawk
You gotta give it more time. 0n3 has barely been around. Give it 3 more years, then assess.
Speaking of giving it more time
Speaking of giving it more time
quote:it's only been 2 years. He could move back up and prove excellent for somebody.
Sam Huard (Washington QB transfer to Cal Poly) -
On3 #7 qb
24/7 #2 qb
Total bust
Posted on 8/1/23 at 5:50 pm to Chalkywhite84
I would have looked only at players where the two services were significantly discrepant, like high-4 star versus 3 star. Then I would have found which service tended to err on false positives (busts) or false negatives (missed gems).
I think mine is the most time-saving way.
I think mine is the most time-saving way.
Posted on 8/1/23 at 9:40 pm to grizzlylongcut
quote:
Bottom line is, the teams with the best players typically win more. I know everyone loves to tout the gritty 3* guy from Bogalusa, and so do I. But a roster full of 3* talent is Kentucky. I do not want to be Kentucky.
Well good thing we have a blue chip ratio over 70% so nothing like Kentucky
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