Tdee activity level

that seems pretty active to me. i thinks its best to try and start with as high of a number as possible otherwise you have nowhere to go when you stall out.

This doesn’t answer your question exactly but cut out grains and added sugars. Replace the grains with an array of vegetables. If you do this the 15-20 lbs will fall off regardless of activity levels. I lost 20 lbs from August to December and decreased my waist size from 37 to 33 inches with less work than you are currently putting in.

If you're looking to lose weight, use the "sedentary" number. Then subtract by 500 cals and that's your target. If you're exercising as much as you say, you'll lose that weight pretty quickly.

Yep. I use sedentary because I sit at a desk most of the day.