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re: Bungie twitter account going off on abortion rights
Posted on 5/10/22 at 1:48 pm to Joshjrn
Posted on 5/10/22 at 1:48 pm to Joshjrn
quote:So not only are you trying to derive stats that don't exist, the source itself isn't even real data but a complete guess based on an even smaller sample size.
I disagreed because saying that’s the percentage of the polled population isn’t necessarily accurate, as the results are potentially weighted in order to attempt to more accurately reflect the actual population.
Explain to me why you thought this was in any way a decent measuring stick?
quote:You're the one that chose to be condescendingly ignorant about polling methods. Surely you can take what you give.
But feel free to take whatever parting shot at me you’d like.
This post was edited on 5/10/22 at 2:31 pm
0
Posted on 5/10/22 at 2:08 pm to Joshjrn
quote:quote:quote:quote:quote:
I would bet that 95% of video game developers and their employees feel the way they do in these tweets.
You aren’t getting 95% of employees from any decent sized company to agree on anything that doesn’t involve across the board raises and more paid holidays. You just have one side afraid to speak up and express their opinions out of fear of retribution
I doubt it's 95%, but I doubt it's super far off.
Even if we ignore the fact that your own argument is clearly not 95% (not even close)
I never argued 95%. I said 85-90%
quote:
I just looked up public opinion polling on the general adult population regarding the overturning of Roe, and only 27% total is in favor.
ETA: The reality does not fit your perception, and I don't even believe that 27% number. They absolutely over-sample Democrats in every single poll ever. It should be alarming to abortion supporters that the number isn't higher.
This post was edited on 5/10/22 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 5/10/22 at 4:23 pm to imjustafatkid
Posted on 5/10/22 at 6:06 pm to imjustafatkid
Still not interested in engaging in a debate regarding the whether public opinion polls are valid or not, but I would like to point out just how incredibly dishonest this post was.
The first quote "I would bet that 95%..." wasn't my post. You'll find that post here: LINK
The third quote is actually mine, but it only includes one sentence of a three paragraph post, including "In fact, to be thorough, I just looked up public opinion polling on the general adult population regarding the overturning of Roe, and only 27% total is in favor. Again, if you skew young, I imagine we are closer to 10% in the gaming industry. 15% max." You can find that post here: LINK
And then we get to the fifth quote, which is once again mine, correctly saying that I quite literally never argued for the 95% number.
But you knew all of this already.
The first quote "I would bet that 95%..." wasn't my post. You'll find that post here: LINK
The third quote is actually mine, but it only includes one sentence of a three paragraph post, including "In fact, to be thorough, I just looked up public opinion polling on the general adult population regarding the overturning of Roe, and only 27% total is in favor. Again, if you skew young, I imagine we are closer to 10% in the gaming industry. 15% max." You can find that post here: LINK
And then we get to the fifth quote, which is once again mine, correctly saying that I quite literally never argued for the 95% number.
But you knew all of this already.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:28 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
And then we get to the fifth quote, which is once again mine, correctly saying that I quite literally never argued for the 95% number.
The dispute was with the 95% claim. Getting involved in that discussion at all means you were discussing the 95% claim.
Posted on 5/10/22 at 9:36 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
The dispute was with the 95% claim. Getting involved in that discussion at all means you were discussing the 95% claim.
My first post referencing that claim stated that I doubted it was 95%, but that I thought 10-15% support for overturning Roe (and therefore 85-90% against) would be reasonable considering the demographics of the gaming industry.
But the fact that you've backpedaled to the point that you've moved from saying that I argued for the 95% claim to now I was "discussing" the 95% claim (fricking duh) is good enough for me.
This post was edited on 5/10/22 at 10:40 pm
Posted on 5/11/22 at 9:53 am to Joshjrn
Dude, just take the L and move on
Posted on 5/11/22 at 10:29 am to Josh Fenderman
quote:
Dude, just take the L and move on
Dude, the PT is a few forums up on the list. Your echo chamber is that way.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 11:13 am to Joshjrn
I guess I don’t need to go to the PT for an echo chamber looking at the way this thread has gone for you
Posted on 5/11/22 at 7:07 pm to JetsetNuggs
quote:
I thought video games were the last bastion of apolitical entertainment. That's coming to an end apparently
Play Nintendo and Japanese exclusive titles only if you want to be sure you are just getting a game experience with no political messaging
Posted on 5/11/22 at 7:24 pm to Joshjrn
quote:"I have no interest in defending the validity of the data I chose to present as an argument."
Still not interested in engaging in a debate regarding the whether public opinion polls are valid or not
Unreal.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 7:32 pm to Drewbie
quote:
"I have no interest in defending the validity of the data I chose to present as an argument."
Unreal.
It's a very boring argument that I've both had and witnessed many times before. I believe polls from reputable polling organizations, while imperfect and certainly not infallible, generally reflect reality. There's literally nothing I can say to convince anyone who believes public opinion polling to be fundamentally flawed at best and intentionally manipulated at worst. For a question revolving around ratios of opinion on a subject, I believe reputable opinion polls to be the best source of information. Outside of those polls, I'm genuinely not sure there is any mutually agreeable data we can use to discuss the issue. As such, there's no reason to discuss it, beyond trading anecdotes.
But I could certainly be missing something. Do you have anything you would propose?
Posted on 5/11/22 at 7:47 pm to Joshjrn
quote:Probably why you didn't see anyone one else trying to throw around numbers. I personally don't think there's any point in trying to figure out how many people think what as this is the type of subject where it's realistic to expect many people to have public and private opinions that don't match. The whole discussion is the ethics behind a company officially taking staunch public political stances to the point of confrontation directly with their customer base. Anything else conjecture.
I'm genuinely not sure there is any mutually agreeable data we can use to discuss the issue.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 7:56 pm to Drewbie
quote:
Probably why you didn't see anyone one else trying to throw around numbers. I personally don't think there's any point in trying to figure out how many people think what as this is the type of subject where it's realistic to expect many people to have public and private opinions that don't match. The whole discussion is the ethics behind a company officially taking staunch public political stances to the point of confrontation directly with their customer base. Anything else conjecture.
But someone did throw out a number, and then people started arguing about it
Then once it became clear that polling data wasn't going to be mutually used, I bowed out. Which based on this last post of yours, you seem to agree with at least in theory, in spite of our previous aggression towards one another.
Ultimately, I don't have strong feelings on the issue you're outlining either way, and I certainly don't see it as an ethical question. I find public opinion polling interesting, so I jumped into that part of the debate. Didn't work out. But genuinely no hard feelings on it
Posted on 5/11/22 at 8:39 pm to Joshjrn
quote:Someone insinuated 95% of a group of people thought something and justified it with opinion. That's not data being presented as evidence as you did. That's a moron talking out of his arse. I don't even consider that.
But someone did throw out a number, and then people started arguing about it
As far as the polling is concerned, I'm skeptical of internet political polling in general ever since being assured Hillary was going to be my president in a runaway 6 years ago by every poll in existence. I think it's beyond obvious that the internet doesn't represent every demographic equally due to either engagement rate or moderation policies. I will acknowledge that bias completely.
Despite that predisposition, you're never going to get me onboard with a poll that tries to predict votes that weren't cast and I thought it disingenuous to present that kind of data the way you did without at least initially acknowledging justifiable concerns of accuracy and validity based on its structure. Outside of that I have no qualms. Certainly nothing against you personally.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 8:45 pm to Drewbie
As a point of clarification, PollingReport doesn't reflect internet polls. If you look at the top of each result, you'll see who did the polling and what methodology was used.
To link back to the abortion section: LINK
The poll we were referencing heavily before has this: Fox News Poll conducted by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). April 28-May 1, 2022. N=1,003 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.
Now, reasonable people can disagree regarding whether or not those results are valid, but there is serious statistical theory and science that goes into those results as presented. It's not just randos who stumble onto a website
To link back to the abortion section: LINK
The poll we were referencing heavily before has this: Fox News Poll conducted by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). April 28-May 1, 2022. N=1,003 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.
Now, reasonable people can disagree regarding whether or not those results are valid, but there is serious statistical theory and science that goes into those results as presented. It's not just randos who stumble onto a website
Posted on 5/11/22 at 8:52 pm to Joshjrn
So they took 1003 votes and extrapolated that data onto the total population? That might be even less convincing to me if I'm being honest with you. I just don't see how you can assure the accuracy of the opinion of 330,000,000 people with polling results of 1,000.
This post was edited on 5/11/22 at 9:01 pm
Posted on 5/11/22 at 9:04 pm to Drewbie
quote:
So they took 1003 votes and extrapolated that data onto the total population? That might be even less convincing to me if I'm being honest with you.
Which is why I said that I had no interest in convincing anyone on the subject
I took a class in undergrad solely focused on public opinion polling. The underpinnings of the science, how to frame good questions, why bad questions create bad data, how something as simple as question order can affect results, etc, etc, etc. Fascinating class. Still have the course books from it. But having taken that deep dive into it, I completely understand why someone would react with "what the frick do you mean the polled a thousand people and then try to act like they know what 150M people are thinking?"
But having taken that deep dive, I have zero interest in trying to teach a semester's worth of material, which in and of itself barely scratches the surface of what is more appropriately an area of graduate study, on a random internet message board. Especially when I know that the result would most likely be someone calling me a libtard and telling me to go frick myself
Posted on 5/11/22 at 10:45 pm to Joshjrn
quote:Doesn't take much.
someone calling me a libtard and telling me to go frick myself
Posted on 5/12/22 at 3:35 am to Joshjrn
quote:
But having taken that deep dive, I have zero interest in trying to teach a semester's worth of material, which in and of itself barely scratches the surface of what is more appropriately an area of graduate study, on a random internet message board.
Yeah I took one of those classes as well. It was one of the easiest and most boring classes that I've ever taken outside of Z grade classes.
It could have been taught in a month. It's really not that difficult of a subject.
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