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re: Marquez Callaway or JaMarr Chase.

Posted on 9/12/21 at 7:20 pm to
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72015 posts
Posted on 9/12/21 at 7:20 pm to
quote:

Chase, and it's not close. Like several rounds between the two


like this is even a debate
Posted by Nonetheless
Luka doncic = goat
Member since Jan 2012
33004 posts
Posted on 9/12/21 at 10:07 pm to
Take away his best play and he didn't do too well
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8428 posts
Posted on 9/12/21 at 10:12 pm to
Chase 25% target share

Calloway 10% target share

Calloway had a tough matchup, but he’s going to see the number 1 corner until Thomas comes back. Chase will have coverage divided between him/Boyd/Higgins

Round 1 goes to Chase for sure.
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
43823 posts
Posted on 9/12/21 at 10:23 pm to
quote:

Take away one long td in OT and he had a very pedestrian day. Don’t pat yourself on the back just yet.



For starters, the TD wasn’t in OT. Then you have to consider the fact that even without that play he still outscores Callaway. I’m high on callaway just like many others, but your take is bad all the way around.
This post was edited on 9/12/21 at 10:25 pm
Posted by TackySweater
Member since Dec 2020
11837 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 10:19 am to
You are correct it wasn’t in OT. I got my highlights mixed up.

But still, take away that one play and he didn’t do much. It’s only been one week, but people crowning him need to wait and see.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72015 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 11:06 am to
quote:

Take away his best play and he didn't do too well


One of the best big play, deep ball WR in CFB history and y’all want to discount the exact thing that made him
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8428 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 11:37 am to
quote:

But still, take away that one play and he didn’t do much. It’s only been one week, but people crowning him need to wait and see.


He had 4 catches for 50 yards other than the big gain. It's not like the bomb was the only pass he caught.

Both the Saints and Bengals had depressed pass counts (20 and 27) in wins, for different reasons, but still depressed pass counts. Let's dig in to see how those targets were distributed:

Bengals- 19 of 27 to wide recievers

Saints- 5 of 20 (!!!) to wide receivers

Bengals entered the season with a win total of 6.5, Saints with a win total of 9. Who is more likely to have the pass attempts rise in subsequent games? I think the answer is obvious, especially considering Burrow and Saints QB attempts per game last year (40 for Burrow vs low 30's for the Saints).

I think sometimes people get a little too caught up with "oh he's the #1 WR on a team" and don't properly apply context to that statement. How many passes will the team throw? How good is the QB/OL? What kind of passes will the WR be getting? How does each team WANT to play? Do they want to put the game in the hands of their QB or not?
This post was edited on 9/13/21 at 11:39 am
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30575 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 11:48 am to
quote:

I think sometimes people get a little too caught up with "oh he's the #1 WR on a team" and don't probably apply context to that statement. How many passes will the team throw? How good is the QB/OL? What kind of passes will the WR be getting?

You’re not wrong, but the Callaway hype was getting a #1 WR on a preseason waiver wire pickup or late late draft pick. It’s not like he was expected to be Keenan Allen, but he had the potential to get a leading target share on an offense that has been consistently great. The Saints led basically the entire way yesterday and the game wasn’t close for very long relatively, so I expect the Saints will have to throw significantly more than 20 passes in coming games. They won’t be able to just run over every team - Packers were 6th worst in fantasy PPG against RBs last year, and that was a good team that was leading in most games so teams weren’t able to run the ball against them nearly as much as a bad team like the Bengals (7th worst)
Posted by Nonetheless
Luka doncic = goat
Member since Jan 2012
33004 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 12:53 pm to
I was being sarcastic and replying to someone else
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8428 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

You’re not wrong, but the Callaway hype was getting a #1 WR on a preseason waiver wire pickup or late late draft pick


Agreed. Callaway came out of relatively nowhere to become a solid 8th/9th round pick. None of what I am going to type below means I think Callaway sucks or he shouldn't be rostered in fantasy.

quote:

It’s not like he was expected to be Keenan Allen,


This thread is full of people who wanted to take him over Ja'marr Chase, who wasn't projected to be Keenan Allen, but still a consistent/solid 6th round pick.

quote:

The Saints led basically the entire way yesterday and the game wasn’t close for very long relatively, so I expect the Saints will have to throw significantly more than 20 passes in coming games.


Agreed. Let's say they average 32 passes a game, a 60% increase. Of those 32 passes, how many go to Callaway? This is a good offense, but also one with a history of throwing to backs and tight ends. Kamara has historically gotten 7 targets a game. Last 3 years, Saints have gone 49%, 48%, and 52% of targets to the WR position. Against Green Bay they were 25%. I don't see that continuing (almost impossibly low) but given the dearth of talent at the position, we might be looking at 40% of available targets going to the WR group. That's 12.8 targets a game for the WR group. Callaway will have to absolutely dominate those available targets or be insanely efficient on the targets he does receive to be a fantasy difference maker.

quote:

They won’t be able to just run over every team - Packers were 6th worst in fantasy PPG against RBs last year, and that was a good team that was leading in most games so teams weren’t able to run the ball against them nearly as much as a bad team like the Bengals (7th worst)



Fantasy PPG against RBs includes receptions, which of course go up when your defense is holding a lead more often than not. Green Bay saw the 5th most running back targets against in the league last year, and ranked 30th in success rate against and 31st in yards per attempt against. I don't have the breakdown in front of me, but I'd guess that Green Bay's run defense was more like mediocre last year (15th to 20th in the league) instead of bottom 5 like you're trying to insinuate.

The Saints ran for more yards on Sunday than all but one team facing the packers last year. The Saints have a consensus top 3-5 offensive line, a fantastic running back, a new QB with question marks at WR, and a talented defense. I expect the Saints to focus on the run all season, and I believe it will usually be successful and lead the Saints to pass at a low rate compared to the rest of the NFL.

Callaway may prove me wrong, but I think he's more of solid bye week fill-in than a consistent starter in fantasy.
Posted by Byron Bojangles III
Member since Nov 2012
51665 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

Take away his best play and he didn't do too well


Sometimes i really wish you never quit the MTV league (with no warning no less) because i forgot how bad you are at fantasy.
Posted by Nonetheless
Luka doncic = goat
Member since Jan 2012
33004 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 2:42 pm to
Still not over it? You miss me
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82031 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 3:34 pm to
Nah baw.
Posted by Gtothemoney
Da North Shore
Member since Sep 2012
17715 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 5:27 pm to
quote:

Who has the better season?


We crowning after week 1?

Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
43823 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 7:09 pm to
quote:

But still, take away that one play and he didn’t do much. It’s only been one week, but people crowning him need to wait and see.


Vs. Callaway who’s done what exactly?
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72015 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:19 pm to
quote:

We crowning after week 1?



Yes

Would you like action?
Posted by Gtothemoney
Da North Shore
Member since Sep 2012
17715 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 10:19 pm to
I owe Boom too much.
Posted by beauchristopher
new orleans
Member since Jan 2008
65955 posts
Posted on 9/14/21 at 11:02 pm to
chase
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72015 posts
Posted on 9/26/21 at 2:04 pm to
Posted by MickeyLikesDags21
Member since Apr 2019
6640 posts
Posted on 9/26/21 at 3:16 pm to
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