re: FSBDL 2019 - OMT is your Champion

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Peraza finna go the frick off the season, bruh.

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Having a high soft contact rate is not necessarily a barrier to hitting for power. C.J. Cron and Yasiel Puig also sported soft contact rates on flies and liners above 19 percent, and Cron finished with 30 homers, while Puig bashed 22 home runs in only 444 plate appearances. Both, however, had hard contact rates hovering near 45 percent, while Peraza clocked in at just 28.3 percent. So despite his improvements in avoiding soft airborne contact, Peraza finished at the very bottom of the average flyball distance rankings for hitters with at least 100 flyballs (per Baseball Savant). Not only was his average distance of 292 feet the lowest for all 65 hitters who reached the 100-flyball threshold, but it was one foot lower than his average distance from 2017.

Given how little long-distance thump Peraza actually had, it’s not surprising that xStats isn’t buying Peraza as a double-digit home run hitter. It gives him credit for 7.4 xHR, and even his doubles output is downgraded from 31 to 24.7 x2B.

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The shortest and simplest answer to the question of “why did we miss” is that there was no reason to think Peraza would hit 14 home runs, and he was lucky to do so. At least he improved enough this season that we can even consider the possibility of him being on a trajectory to hit 20 or more home runs in 2019. We should also consider that, in addition to be a long shot to improve on this season’s power output, his subpar on-base skills could land him further down in the Reds’ batting order, which would further cut into his fantasy value.

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Peraza finna go the frick off the season, bruh.

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But how about Cutch going to the best HR park for RHH?!?

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