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re: Fantasy Board Regulars Football League
Posted on 9/10/12 at 11:52 pm to Lester Earl
Posted on 9/10/12 at 11:52 pm to Lester Earl
Like he's not even looking downfield
1
Posted on 9/10/12 at 11:54 pm to GynoSandberg
this drive he is all of sudden
Posted on 9/11/12 at 12:28 am to Lester Earl
sucks that kash and bham had to play each other
Posted on 9/11/12 at 12:30 am to Lester Earl
If I were an overreacting chode, I'd point out how much Gates and DHB suck
What did we say high score gets? $10 or $20? BHam isnt going home empty handed this season
What did we say high score gets? $10 or $20? BHam isnt going home empty handed this season
Posted on 9/11/12 at 12:31 am to GynoSandberg
someone please explain the strategy of picking up 2 defenses on monday night. how are you able to drop your active D?
This post was edited on 9/11/12 at 12:32 am
Posted on 9/11/12 at 12:35 am to GynoSandberg
yeah, because fricking POS carson palmer like Dmac's BBC
anyway grats Bham
starters
projected 1350.92
actual 1428.14
difference of 77.22
divided by 12 teams =6.44 pts average off/team
~5% error in projected points
anyone want to try to do better?
Gates grabs that TD, ed reed knocked out of bounds at the 1.....kinda 6 points
being top loser
anyway grats Bham
starters
projected 1350.92
actual 1428.14
difference of 77.22
divided by 12 teams =6.44 pts average off/team
~5% error in projected points
anyone want to try to do better?
Gates grabs that TD, ed reed knocked out of bounds at the 1.....kinda 6 points
being top loserThis post was edited on 9/11/12 at 12:36 am
Posted on 9/11/12 at 12:37 am to Iona Fan Man
Do we have to go over this again? Team projections =/= individual projections.
What you are arguing is that Player X is projected for 20 points, ends up getting 5 points. Player Y projected for 20 points, ends up getting 35 points. Add them together and average and you get 20 a piece for 100% accuracy. NOWAY!
What you are arguing is that Player X is projected for 20 points, ends up getting 5 points. Player Y projected for 20 points, ends up getting 35 points. Add them together and average and you get 20 a piece for 100% accuracy. NOWAY!
Posted on 9/11/12 at 12:38 am to Iona Fan Man
quote:
starters
projected 1350.92
actual 1428.14
difference of 77.22
divided by 12 teams =6.44 pts average off/team
~5% error in projected points
anyone want to try to do better?
only 4 team's projections was within 10points of what they actually scored..
yeah, thats really good!
Posted on 9/11/12 at 12:41 am to Lester Earl
I'm going to sleep, so I'll be eager to see his response to my statement in the morning
Posted on 9/11/12 at 12:49 am to Lester Earl
quote:
only 4 team's projections was within 10points of what they actually scored..
yeah, thats really good!
how close would be impressive to you? Never said it was perfect, but every time I total them up, it seems really close to me.
Remember the movie Rainman?
Waitress drops a bunch of toothpicks, and Raymond says 297....Cruise says no its 300, not knowing that there were 3 in the box.
You remind me of Tom Cruise. "SEE 300 YOU'RE WRONG !!"
he wasn't impressed that is was pretty damn close ...until it was perfect.
It will never be perfect.
Posted on 9/11/12 at 1:02 am to Iona Fan Man
how much variance do you think leaguewide scoring has every week?
dividing it up doesn't tell us anything. we could randomly assign that value and it still comes out to that standard week level, but it gives no indication of what an individual player will do
dividing it up doesn't tell us anything. we could randomly assign that value and it still comes out to that standard week level, but it gives no indication of what an individual player will do
Posted on 9/11/12 at 1:59 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
how much variance do you think leaguewide scoring has every week?
only thing we could do is have someone take a list of the top 150 and give us their projections for each, and then check them versus Yahoo and actual at the end of the week
problem with that is that they'd most likely cheat and just +- yahoo projections.
guess Steven Jackson's production this week
Yahoo says 74.2 yards, 3.8 catches for 30.2 and .7 TDs...17.69
I say 42 yards, 4 catches for 18, no TD....10 pts
am I right, is yahoo right, I may be this time, but does that mean that if we did 150 I would beat Yahoo?
Being that the numbers work out to be near even given the data points shows that the method used to project stats is not some whimsical "Expert" throwing around numbers.
Like Gambling with lines and over/unders
if we were betting one another on the next LSU game, would you go by the lines that Vegas threw out, or would you go off the lines that I determine? Which would make the most sense to follow week by week, game by game?
Posted on 9/11/12 at 8:32 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
BHam isnt going home empty handed this season
Kash,
I feel your pain. I lost in 2 of my 4 leagues this week. In one, I was the 2nd highest scorer. In the other (a 40team league), I was the 3rd highest scorer. In both, I had Gates and lost to the team with the Ravens D. Anyway, good game and good luck this week.
Posted on 9/11/12 at 8:34 am to Iona Fan Man
quote:
Being that the numbers work out to be near even given the data points shows that the method used to project stats is not some whimsical "Expert" throwing around numbers.
i think this is because the NFL generally gets similar yardage/scoring totals week in, week out, so a TOTAL projection is pretty consistent. that doesn't show much for individual player projections. they could be randomly assigned to all players in projections to arrive at a similar total
Posted on 9/11/12 at 8:45 am to SlowFlowPro
That's what I told him but he fails to recognize it.
Posted on 9/11/12 at 9:22 am to Drew Orleans
quote:
PCT took down Rondo 137.76 - 99.94 and notched the second-highest point total this week. PCT played very well and put up 32.6% more than their projected 103.91 points, while Rondo fell just short of hitting their projections and got 90.4% of a projected 110.51. Andre Johnson led Rondo with 25.90 points while Tony Gonzalez racked up 16.30. PCT (1-0) starts the season in second place while Rondo (0-1) debuts in 10th place.
PCT Smooth Moves
With 26.90 points, Brandon Marshall had the third-highest score in the league this week. Traded for BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who scored 16.50 points, beating his 9.63-point projection by 71.3%. Picked up Owen Daniels, who beat his scoring projection by 90.7%, with 12.70 points against a projected 6.66. Picked up Adrian Peterson, who beat his scoring projection by 130.4%, which led the team. With 23.56 points, Drew Brees ranked fifth in the league this week in scoring among QBs.
Rondo Regret Tracker
Missed out on an opportunity by leaving the 12.50 points scored by Maurice Jones-Drew on the bench this week. He outperformed his projected point total by 175.9%, the seventh-highest percentage in the league. PCT saw their RBs beat those on Rondo 38.20 - 7.80. Of the 9 starters on Rondo, 6 underperformed versus their projections. With 7.80 points, Hakeem Nicks scored only 46.7% of his 16.71 projected point total. The RBs on Rondo both fell short of their projected points.
What If
PCT would have beaten nine other teams besides Rondo this week. PCT would have had to score 44.85 fewer points to lose to all teams in the league this week. Rondo would have lost to eight other teams besides PCT this week. If Rondo had scored 7.03 fewer points, they would have lost to all teams in the league this week.
Game Notes
The 37.82-point margin of victory by PCT was the largest in the league this week. The highest-scoring group of WRs in the league this week was on PCT, which got 57.30 points from the position. The 137.76 points scored by PCT ranked second in the league this week. Rondo ranked 10th in the league in scoring this week. In the loss, Andre Johnson ranked fourth in the league in scoring with 25.90 points. In the loss, Tony Gonzalez had the fifth-highest TE score in the league this week with 16.30 points. The Chicago Bears Defense tried to help Rondo in the loss, beating their scoring projection by 25.1%, scoring 14.00 points versus an 11.19-point projection. Although PCT won, they got little help from Mason Crosby, who only put up 2.00 points of a projected 8.62.
Posted on 9/11/12 at 9:33 am to PortCityTiger24
Has Yahoo always done those final recaps? I've never noticed them before, but they're pretty cool.
Posted on 9/11/12 at 9:47 am to BhamTigah
Yahoos projections for my team fricking sucked.
Posted on 9/11/12 at 9:50 am to BhamTigah
I think its new.
Posted on 9/11/12 at 9:58 am to PortCityTiger24
I'm the only team whose top 2 picks scored under 20 points combined, yet I scored the highest total.
Know what that means? I got lucky as hell.
Know what that means? I got lucky as hell.
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