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re: 2024 NFL News & Notes Thread
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:48 pm to BhamTigah
Posted on 8/28/24 at 8:48 pm to BhamTigah
I have to drop 1: McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr, Dionte Johnson, or Jaxon SN.
Definitely not dropping Thomas because he's a freak, he's in a good offensive system, and it seems like the Jags really like him.
McConkey seems like he is going to be starter at slot, and he has a top 10 QB throwing to him.
Jaxon SN will be sharing catches with Metcalf, and Lockett, but he is very talented, had a good preseason and could potentially break out.
D. Johnson doesn't really excite me, and hasn't showed all that much the last two seasons, and Young might be running for his life all season like last year. I am thinking that he is the odd man out.
Definitely not dropping Thomas because he's a freak, he's in a good offensive system, and it seems like the Jags really like him.
McConkey seems like he is going to be starter at slot, and he has a top 10 QB throwing to him.
Jaxon SN will be sharing catches with Metcalf, and Lockett, but he is very talented, had a good preseason and could potentially break out.
D. Johnson doesn't really excite me, and hasn't showed all that much the last two seasons, and Young might be running for his life all season like last year. I am thinking that he is the odd man out.
This post was edited on 8/28/24 at 8:49 pm
1
Posted on 8/28/24 at 10:07 pm to Funky Tide 8
McConkey or Njigba.
Diontae is a PPR floor guy all season. Great fill in / flex IMO.
Thomas Jr big upside if Lawrence can get the offense going.
Diontae is a PPR floor guy all season. Great fill in / flex IMO.
Thomas Jr big upside if Lawrence can get the offense going.
Posted on 8/28/24 at 11:29 pm to LSUcam7
Thank you 
Posted on 8/29/24 at 6:51 am to Funky Tide 8
I’d rather role the dice on McConkey than JSN. JSN’s upside is limited to a WR 2/3 while McConkey can be a WR1 on huge reception volume if things go right in my opinion.
This post was edited on 8/29/24 at 6:52 am
Posted on 8/29/24 at 8:41 am to TheWalrus
Patriots named Jacoby the starter over Maye.
Not huge for fantasy, but sitting the #3 pick is pretty big for Patriots/NFL.
Not huge for fantasy, but sitting the #3 pick is pretty big for Patriots/NFL.
This post was edited on 8/29/24 at 8:42 am
Posted on 8/29/24 at 11:11 am to BhamTigah
Won’t be all season I think
Posted on 8/29/24 at 12:04 pm to TackySweater
quote:
Mike McCarthy said Rico Dowdle will get fewer special teams snaps this season because of his expected increased work load on offense.
Calvin Watkins
Posted on 8/29/24 at 2:35 pm to TigerLunatik
I`m probably in the minority, but i hope Zeke shows he still has that same energy he had when he started in Dallas and Dowdle can come in like Pollard did.
Posted on 8/29/24 at 2:47 pm to LSU999
quote:
Sean McVay says Puka Nacua is practicing fully.
“He’ll be ready to roll.”
- Stu Jackson
Posted on 8/29/24 at 6:01 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
Sources to me and @RapSheet: The #49ers and WR Brandon Aiyuk have agreed on a four-year, $120 million contract extension with $76 million in guarantees.
Hold-in over. Trade request withdrawn. Aiyuk’s agent @RyanWilliamsA1 and the Niners strike a deal to keep him in Santa Clara.
- Mike Garafolo
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:42 pm to TigerLunatik
news notes and relevant stats before week !:
Arizona Cardinals:
1a. Since his rookie season in 2019, Kyler Murray is QB5 in fantasy points per game (20.2) and fourth in rushing yards per game (37.7).
1b. In his first year back from an ACL injury, Murray was QB12 in FP/Dropback (0.50) and QB10 in FPG (18.9).
1c. Murray also should see an uptick in designed carries now that he’s fully healthy. He averaged 3.5 per game last season (sixth-most among QBs).
1d. Murray averaged 4.3 designed carries per game back in 2021 and 3.8 in 2022.
2. Murray’s best career fantasy season was in 2020 when he had bluechip WR DeAndre Hopkins in his prime. If Marvin Harrison can raise the ceiling in a similar fashion, why in the world has Murray’s ADP sunk to QB9?
2b. Receivers taken as early as Harrison in the NFL Draft (#4 overall) are typically productive as rookies, but only a few turn in WR2 or better fantasy seasons in their first year. Harrison has as good of a profile as Ja’Marr Chase and Julio Jones.
2c. Since 2010, there have been 15 wideouts taken in the top-10 overall in the NFL Draft. Five of these 15 WRs went on to finish top 24 or better in fantasy points per game (Half-PPR) as rookies, with Ja’Marr Chase (WR5 finish) leading the group. Harrison has the upside for a similar first season. Julio Jones (WR11 finish as a rookie), AJ Green (WR12), Mike Evans (WR13), and Jaylen Waddle (WR21) were the other four rookies to finish top-24.
3. James Conner was awesome on the ground last season. Only Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams averaged more rushing yards per game than Conner did. He was extremely efficient on a per-carry basis as well. Per FP Data, only De’Von Achane (3.7) and Jaylen Warren (3.5) averaged more yards after contact per carry than Conner (3.4).
3b. Conner missed his usual handful of games and was the RB13 in PPR FPG (15.5).
3c. He’s now finished as the RB7, RB17, RB27, RB9, RB9, and RB13 in fantasy points per game over the last six seasons.
4. However, Conner way overperformed based on his role last season. It’s a red flag for regression. His role was only worth 13.5 expected PPR FPG (RB19) because he was so lightly used in the passing game.
4b. A total of 31 RBs ran a route on a higher rate of their team’s pass attempts than Conner (36%). Enter Trey Benson. Now 29 years old, Conner has missed at least three games in five of the last 6 seasons.
4c. Recall that targets are worth 2.55x more fantasy points than a carry for running backs in PPR leagues.
4d. Conner averaged a career-low 12.7 receiving yards per game last season. Over his five previous seasons, he added 25.6 YPG receiving.
5. Across 10 starts from Weeks 8-18 after taking over for vet TE Zach Ertz, McBride led all TEs in target share (26%), first-reads (32% share), he was fourth in yards per game (65.5), and fifth in yards per route run (2.16).
5b. McBride’s 15.0 PPR FPG in this 10-game stretch would have bested Kelce as the TE1 in points per game, had he sustained over the course of the season.
5c. He finished as a top-12 scoring TE on a weekly basis in 8-of-10 games with six finishes inside the top-8 in this span.
5d. Of course, Marvin Harrison is going to command targets, and McBride’s lofty target share is sure to fall. He’s just good at the game, though. And you don’t have to pay an early second-rounder to get him like you do with Kelce and LaPorta.
Arizona Cardinals:
1a. Since his rookie season in 2019, Kyler Murray is QB5 in fantasy points per game (20.2) and fourth in rushing yards per game (37.7).
1b. In his first year back from an ACL injury, Murray was QB12 in FP/Dropback (0.50) and QB10 in FPG (18.9).
1c. Murray also should see an uptick in designed carries now that he’s fully healthy. He averaged 3.5 per game last season (sixth-most among QBs).
1d. Murray averaged 4.3 designed carries per game back in 2021 and 3.8 in 2022.
2. Murray’s best career fantasy season was in 2020 when he had bluechip WR DeAndre Hopkins in his prime. If Marvin Harrison can raise the ceiling in a similar fashion, why in the world has Murray’s ADP sunk to QB9?
2b. Receivers taken as early as Harrison in the NFL Draft (#4 overall) are typically productive as rookies, but only a few turn in WR2 or better fantasy seasons in their first year. Harrison has as good of a profile as Ja’Marr Chase and Julio Jones.
2c. Since 2010, there have been 15 wideouts taken in the top-10 overall in the NFL Draft. Five of these 15 WRs went on to finish top 24 or better in fantasy points per game (Half-PPR) as rookies, with Ja’Marr Chase (WR5 finish) leading the group. Harrison has the upside for a similar first season. Julio Jones (WR11 finish as a rookie), AJ Green (WR12), Mike Evans (WR13), and Jaylen Waddle (WR21) were the other four rookies to finish top-24.
3. James Conner was awesome on the ground last season. Only Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams averaged more rushing yards per game than Conner did. He was extremely efficient on a per-carry basis as well. Per FP Data, only De’Von Achane (3.7) and Jaylen Warren (3.5) averaged more yards after contact per carry than Conner (3.4).
3b. Conner missed his usual handful of games and was the RB13 in PPR FPG (15.5).
3c. He’s now finished as the RB7, RB17, RB27, RB9, RB9, and RB13 in fantasy points per game over the last six seasons.
4. However, Conner way overperformed based on his role last season. It’s a red flag for regression. His role was only worth 13.5 expected PPR FPG (RB19) because he was so lightly used in the passing game.
4b. A total of 31 RBs ran a route on a higher rate of their team’s pass attempts than Conner (36%). Enter Trey Benson. Now 29 years old, Conner has missed at least three games in five of the last 6 seasons.
4c. Recall that targets are worth 2.55x more fantasy points than a carry for running backs in PPR leagues.
4d. Conner averaged a career-low 12.7 receiving yards per game last season. Over his five previous seasons, he added 25.6 YPG receiving.
5. Across 10 starts from Weeks 8-18 after taking over for vet TE Zach Ertz, McBride led all TEs in target share (26%), first-reads (32% share), he was fourth in yards per game (65.5), and fifth in yards per route run (2.16).
5b. McBride’s 15.0 PPR FPG in this 10-game stretch would have bested Kelce as the TE1 in points per game, had he sustained over the course of the season.
5c. He finished as a top-12 scoring TE on a weekly basis in 8-of-10 games with six finishes inside the top-8 in this span.
5d. Of course, Marvin Harrison is going to command targets, and McBride’s lofty target share is sure to fall. He’s just good at the game, though. And you don’t have to pay an early second-rounder to get him like you do with Kelce and LaPorta.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:45 pm to CBandits82
Atlanta Falcons
6. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in seven out of his nine seasons as a starter.
6b. His 2019 season (3,603 yards in 15 games) and last year’s injury-shortened campaign (2,331 yards in eight games) stand out as the two lone exceptions.
7. Cousins has delivered a catchable, accurate pass on at least 77% of pass attempts in three straight seasons, and he peaked at 81.4% last year. That 81.4% mark was just barely behind Dak Prescott (81.5%) for the league lead.
7b. For reference, Atlanta’s quarterbacks threw an accurate pass just 72.3% of the time last season. That ranked 30th. It was, unfortunately, an “improvement”, though. In 2022, Atlanta’s QBs gave their receivers a catchable ball 71.8% of the time.
7c. Last year, London averaged just 5.2 catchable targets per game (WR33). Kendrick Bourne saw more catchable looks (5.4 per game). It was not any better in his rookie campaign (5.0 CTGT per game – WR40).
8. Along with the huge upgrade under center, the Falcons are obviously going to get out of the basement in pass rate. Over the last two seasons under former HC Arthur Smith, the Falcons ranked 32nd (-5.5%) and 31st (-11.2%) by pass rate under expectation. We don’t know exactly what new OC Zac Robinson’s tendencies will be exactly, but one thing is for sure – the Falcons passing offense will finally be unleashed.
6. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in seven out of his nine seasons as a starter.
6b. His 2019 season (3,603 yards in 15 games) and last year’s injury-shortened campaign (2,331 yards in eight games) stand out as the two lone exceptions.
7. Cousins has delivered a catchable, accurate pass on at least 77% of pass attempts in three straight seasons, and he peaked at 81.4% last year. That 81.4% mark was just barely behind Dak Prescott (81.5%) for the league lead.
7b. For reference, Atlanta’s quarterbacks threw an accurate pass just 72.3% of the time last season. That ranked 30th. It was, unfortunately, an “improvement”, though. In 2022, Atlanta’s QBs gave their receivers a catchable ball 71.8% of the time.
7c. Last year, London averaged just 5.2 catchable targets per game (WR33). Kendrick Bourne saw more catchable looks (5.4 per game). It was not any better in his rookie campaign (5.0 CTGT per game – WR40).
8. Along with the huge upgrade under center, the Falcons are obviously going to get out of the basement in pass rate. Over the last two seasons under former HC Arthur Smith, the Falcons ranked 32nd (-5.5%) and 31st (-11.2%) by pass rate under expectation. We don’t know exactly what new OC Zac Robinson’s tendencies will be exactly, but one thing is for sure – the Falcons passing offense will finally be unleashed.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:46 pm to CBandits82
Baltimore Ravens
9. Before suffering a high ankle injury in Week 11, Mark Andrews was — once again — leading all tight ends in route share (79%), he was first in targets per route run (0.29), and he led the position in fantasy points per route run (0.54)..
9b. Andrews was actually earning more targets last season than he was in 2022 when he tied for third in targets per route run (0.26) and he finished fourth in FP/RR (0.47).
9c. Andrews’ 14.6 PPR fantasy points per game last season would have trailed Kelce by two-tenths of a point as the TE3 by FPG.
9d. These are his career finishes (starting in 2019): TE5 (13.9 PPR FPG), TE4 (12.2 FPG), TE1 (17.5 FPG), TE3 (12.6), and TE3 (14.6 FPG – last season).
9e. Ahem. That’s five straight top-5 seasons by FPG.
9f. Zay Flowers saw a 24.3% first-read target share (WR35) and averaged just 9.3 Half-PPR per game (WR43) in 10 games with Andrews.
9g. Flowers scored 5 of his 7 TDs in games where Andrews missed.
9h. Lamar Jackson ranks 30th, 31st, 19th, 38th, and 35th in pass attempts per game in his career (since 2019). The passing volume in this offense is never going to be high enough to consistently sustain multiple high-end fantasy options.
10. Derrick Henry ran behind the second-worst offensive line by adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.03) last season in Tennessee.
10b. Despite this, Henry just posted top-10 marks by yards after contact. Again. This marked Henry’s third straight season inside the top 10 in YAC per carry, and he actually increased his explosive runs (of 15 or more yards) year over year.
Year YAC/Carry (rank) MTF/Carry (rank) Explosive Run%
2023 3.06 (6th-of-41 RBs) 0.23 (14th) 5.7% (6th)
2022 3.24 (8th-of-37 RBs) 0.18 (19th) 4.3% (20th)
2021 3.17 (9th-of-41 RBs) 0.20 (12th) 4.1% (16th)
10c. In this system, Henry is dripping with TD upside. Gus Edwards just cashed in 30 carries inside-the-10 (sixth-most among RBs) for 13 TDs last season. Only Jalen Hurts scored more rushing TDs inside-the-10, with 14.
10d. Back in 2019, Mark Ingram finished as the RB11 in PPR FPG at 30 years old attached to Lamar.
10e. The only thing I question here is Henry’s ceiling in the passing game. Over the last five seasons, the Ravens RBs rank 30th (2019), 31st (2020), 29th (2021), 30th (2022), and 31st (2023) in receptions. Not great!
9. Before suffering a high ankle injury in Week 11, Mark Andrews was — once again — leading all tight ends in route share (79%), he was first in targets per route run (0.29), and he led the position in fantasy points per route run (0.54)..
9b. Andrews was actually earning more targets last season than he was in 2022 when he tied for third in targets per route run (0.26) and he finished fourth in FP/RR (0.47).
9c. Andrews’ 14.6 PPR fantasy points per game last season would have trailed Kelce by two-tenths of a point as the TE3 by FPG.
9d. These are his career finishes (starting in 2019): TE5 (13.9 PPR FPG), TE4 (12.2 FPG), TE1 (17.5 FPG), TE3 (12.6), and TE3 (14.6 FPG – last season).
9e. Ahem. That’s five straight top-5 seasons by FPG.
9f. Zay Flowers saw a 24.3% first-read target share (WR35) and averaged just 9.3 Half-PPR per game (WR43) in 10 games with Andrews.
9g. Flowers scored 5 of his 7 TDs in games where Andrews missed.
9h. Lamar Jackson ranks 30th, 31st, 19th, 38th, and 35th in pass attempts per game in his career (since 2019). The passing volume in this offense is never going to be high enough to consistently sustain multiple high-end fantasy options.
10. Derrick Henry ran behind the second-worst offensive line by adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.03) last season in Tennessee.
10b. Despite this, Henry just posted top-10 marks by yards after contact. Again. This marked Henry’s third straight season inside the top 10 in YAC per carry, and he actually increased his explosive runs (of 15 or more yards) year over year.
Year YAC/Carry (rank) MTF/Carry (rank) Explosive Run%
2023 3.06 (6th-of-41 RBs) 0.23 (14th) 5.7% (6th)
2022 3.24 (8th-of-37 RBs) 0.18 (19th) 4.3% (20th)
2021 3.17 (9th-of-41 RBs) 0.20 (12th) 4.1% (16th)
10c. In this system, Henry is dripping with TD upside. Gus Edwards just cashed in 30 carries inside-the-10 (sixth-most among RBs) for 13 TDs last season. Only Jalen Hurts scored more rushing TDs inside-the-10, with 14.
10d. Back in 2019, Mark Ingram finished as the RB11 in PPR FPG at 30 years old attached to Lamar.
10e. The only thing I question here is Henry’s ceiling in the passing game. Over the last five seasons, the Ravens RBs rank 30th (2019), 31st (2020), 29th (2021), 30th (2022), and 31st (2023) in receptions. Not great!
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:46 pm to CBandits82
Buffalo Bills
11. With Stefon Diggs gone, I suspect the Bills will lean more on the run than we’re accustomed to with Buffalo. Their pass rate dipped massively on first downs last season after OC Joe Brady took over:
11b. From Weeks 1-10 (OC Dorsey), the Bills pass rate was 58.2% (fourth-highest).
11c. From Weeks 11 on (OC Brady), the Bills had a 38.8% pass rate on first-downs (third-lowest).
11d. After the OC change to Brady, the Bills went from 5th in pass rate over expectation (+7.1%) in Weeks 1-10 to a lowly 25th (-1.8%) from Week 11 and into the playoffs.
12. Cook became just the 11th RB to have at least 200 carries in a single season but score two or fewer TDs since 2010. His role just wasn’t that valuable overall – he was the RB27 in expected fantasy points – because Josh Allen hogs all of the touchdowns.
12b. Allen has scored 22 TDs on 53 carries inside-the-10 since 2021. That’s a 41.5% conversion rate.
12c. Meanwhile, Bills running backs have converted just 20 TDs on their combined 101 inside-10 carries (19.8%).
12d. Worryingly, Cook ranked RB52 in snap rate inside-the-5 (goal-line) last season at 35%.
12e. The Bills signed Latavius Murray off of the sofa and handed the ball to him 12 times at the goal line last season. Cook had five goal-line totes. Is Cook going to take those carries this year? Or, will Ray Davis mix in?
12f. The sample on Cook’s scoring ability has been terrible. He’s handled 22 carries inside-the-10 in his career and has one TD to show for it.
12e. Since 2019, the Bills RB group has ranked among the bottom-12 teams in receptions in five of the last 6 seasons. They’ve never ranked higher than 17th. This is just another Josh Allen thing. He’s (correctly) going to take off and scramble if the pocket breaks down – not check down.
11. With Stefon Diggs gone, I suspect the Bills will lean more on the run than we’re accustomed to with Buffalo. Their pass rate dipped massively on first downs last season after OC Joe Brady took over:
11b. From Weeks 1-10 (OC Dorsey), the Bills pass rate was 58.2% (fourth-highest).
11c. From Weeks 11 on (OC Brady), the Bills had a 38.8% pass rate on first-downs (third-lowest).
11d. After the OC change to Brady, the Bills went from 5th in pass rate over expectation (+7.1%) in Weeks 1-10 to a lowly 25th (-1.8%) from Week 11 and into the playoffs.
12. Cook became just the 11th RB to have at least 200 carries in a single season but score two or fewer TDs since 2010. His role just wasn’t that valuable overall – he was the RB27 in expected fantasy points – because Josh Allen hogs all of the touchdowns.
12b. Allen has scored 22 TDs on 53 carries inside-the-10 since 2021. That’s a 41.5% conversion rate.
12c. Meanwhile, Bills running backs have converted just 20 TDs on their combined 101 inside-10 carries (19.8%).
12d. Worryingly, Cook ranked RB52 in snap rate inside-the-5 (goal-line) last season at 35%.
12e. The Bills signed Latavius Murray off of the sofa and handed the ball to him 12 times at the goal line last season. Cook had five goal-line totes. Is Cook going to take those carries this year? Or, will Ray Davis mix in?
12f. The sample on Cook’s scoring ability has been terrible. He’s handled 22 carries inside-the-10 in his career and has one TD to show for it.
12e. Since 2019, the Bills RB group has ranked among the bottom-12 teams in receptions in five of the last 6 seasons. They’ve never ranked higher than 17th. This is just another Josh Allen thing. He’s (correctly) going to take off and scramble if the pocket breaks down – not check down.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:47 pm to CBandits82
Carolina Panthers
13. The upside case for the Panthers centers around HC Dave Canales elevating Bryce Young after a horrific rookie season. Carolina’s offense was non-functional and impossible to watch – disjointed, slow, and their receivers were terrible. The main issue stemmed from zero continuity and consistency along the offensive line. Young saw near league-worst protection, with his offensive line giving up a 40% pressure rate (eighth-highest). Carolina has completely uprooted their interior line by spending big on stud G Robert Hunt.
13b. The Panthers 13.9 points per game was the seventh-lowest scoring campaign for any offense since 2010, tied with the Patriots.
13c. By implied totals, we expect the Panthers scoring to progress by 5.7 points per game this season. It can’t get much worse. Carolina also benefits from great strength of schedule for their passing attack (third-best) and RBs (sixth-best).
13. The upside case for the Panthers centers around HC Dave Canales elevating Bryce Young after a horrific rookie season. Carolina’s offense was non-functional and impossible to watch – disjointed, slow, and their receivers were terrible. The main issue stemmed from zero continuity and consistency along the offensive line. Young saw near league-worst protection, with his offensive line giving up a 40% pressure rate (eighth-highest). Carolina has completely uprooted their interior line by spending big on stud G Robert Hunt.
13b. The Panthers 13.9 points per game was the seventh-lowest scoring campaign for any offense since 2010, tied with the Patriots.
13c. By implied totals, we expect the Panthers scoring to progress by 5.7 points per game this season. It can’t get much worse. Carolina also benefits from great strength of schedule for their passing attack (third-best) and RBs (sixth-best).
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:47 pm to CBandits82
Chicago Bears
14. Since 1998, Caleb Williams is one of just six QBs in NCAA history to average over 9 yards per pass attempt with a TD rate of 8% or higher and an INT rate of 1.5% or lower in their career.
14b. The other 5 QBs to meet those marks are CJ Stroud, Marcus Mariota, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Hendon Hooker.
15. Over the last three combined seasons, D.J. Moore is the WR9 in YPRR (2.82) on all targets that were not designed (like screens). This just marginally trails CeeDee Lamb (2.90) and Brandon Aiyuk (2.84). Shoutout Dan Whisner for the FP Data pull.
15b. Moore’s catchable target rate (74.7%) is 56th-of-69 WRs with at least 150 targets since 2021. Moore has literally been one of the top-10 most efficient receivers despite getting garbage QB play regularly.
15c. Need I remind you that Moore was the WR3 in all of fantasy football in Half-PPR points per game (17.6) in Justin Fields’ starts last season? Only Hill and Lamb put up more FPG.
15d. No matter the quarterback or the scheme, Moore has always commanded the ball. He’s earned at least 30% of his team’s first-read targets in each of the last three seasons, finishing as the WR4 (2023) > WR19 (2022) > WR3 (2021) in FR target share. The Bears have added significant target competition for Moore with the likes of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, but our projections are that Moore will lead the team in routes.
16. Keenan Allen made me look foolish en route to a WR3 finish in FPG (21.1 PPR) last season. Of course, his late-season injury harpooned what was an incredible run.
16b. Prior to last year’s explosion, Allen had scored between 16.0 and 17.8 PPR FPG for six straight seasons from 2017 to 2022.
16c. Allen has now finished as a top-12 WR in FPG in eight straight seasons (excluding 2016).
16d. Allen showed no signs of skill degradation after ranking 8th in separation score (arse) among 93 qualified WR last season.
17. Rome Odunze is one of 9 WRs to eclipse 2.5 yards and 0.45 first downs on a per-route basis while lining up primarily outside since 2019. The other eight WRs to meet this mark are Marvin Harrison Jr., Troy Franklin, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Olave, Devonta Smith, Tee Higgins, and Marquise Brown. Bullish. H/T FballInsights.
14. Since 1998, Caleb Williams is one of just six QBs in NCAA history to average over 9 yards per pass attempt with a TD rate of 8% or higher and an INT rate of 1.5% or lower in their career.
14b. The other 5 QBs to meet those marks are CJ Stroud, Marcus Mariota, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Hendon Hooker.
15. Over the last three combined seasons, D.J. Moore is the WR9 in YPRR (2.82) on all targets that were not designed (like screens). This just marginally trails CeeDee Lamb (2.90) and Brandon Aiyuk (2.84). Shoutout Dan Whisner for the FP Data pull.
15b. Moore’s catchable target rate (74.7%) is 56th-of-69 WRs with at least 150 targets since 2021. Moore has literally been one of the top-10 most efficient receivers despite getting garbage QB play regularly.
15c. Need I remind you that Moore was the WR3 in all of fantasy football in Half-PPR points per game (17.6) in Justin Fields’ starts last season? Only Hill and Lamb put up more FPG.
15d. No matter the quarterback or the scheme, Moore has always commanded the ball. He’s earned at least 30% of his team’s first-read targets in each of the last three seasons, finishing as the WR4 (2023) > WR19 (2022) > WR3 (2021) in FR target share. The Bears have added significant target competition for Moore with the likes of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, but our projections are that Moore will lead the team in routes.
16. Keenan Allen made me look foolish en route to a WR3 finish in FPG (21.1 PPR) last season. Of course, his late-season injury harpooned what was an incredible run.
16b. Prior to last year’s explosion, Allen had scored between 16.0 and 17.8 PPR FPG for six straight seasons from 2017 to 2022.
16c. Allen has now finished as a top-12 WR in FPG in eight straight seasons (excluding 2016).
16d. Allen showed no signs of skill degradation after ranking 8th in separation score (arse) among 93 qualified WR last season.
17. Rome Odunze is one of 9 WRs to eclipse 2.5 yards and 0.45 first downs on a per-route basis while lining up primarily outside since 2019. The other eight WRs to meet this mark are Marvin Harrison Jr., Troy Franklin, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Olave, Devonta Smith, Tee Higgins, and Marquise Brown. Bullish. H/T FballInsights.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:48 pm to CBandits82
Cincinnati Bengals
18. Over the last three combined seasons, Joe Burrow is the QB5 in fantasy points per game, trailing only QB1 Josh Allen, QB2 Jalen Hurts, QB3 Patrick Mahomes, and QB4 Lamar Jackson.
18b. In this span, Burrow is third in passing yards per game with 271.3. That trails only Patrick Mahomes (285.4 YPG) and Justin Herbert (274.2).
18c. Burrow has been a stud from an efficiency standpoint, too. He ranks fourth-best in touchdown rate (5.6%) – behind only Aaron Rodgers (5.9%), Dak Prescott (6.1%), and Brock Purdy (7.2%) since 2021. He ranks fifth-best in YPA (7.6).
18d. The Bengals' pass rate over expectation has risen in three straight seasons in Burrow’s starts. In 2021, they were 10th (+4.4%). Two years ago, their PROE rose to +9.6% (second-highest). Last year? Well, well, well. Their pass rate shot up to +11.2% in Weeks 1-10.
18e. Only the Chiefs were more pass-heavy (+11.7% pass rate over expected) than the Bengals to start last year. Keep in mind, Burrow was not 100% healthy to start the season (calf).
19. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have played in 37 games together with Joe Burrow in their careers. Their first-read target share in those games:
Chase – 31.5% (would rank WR13 last season behind Justin Jefferson)
Higgins – 25.1% (WR32 tied with Calvin Ridley)
19b. In these 37 games, Chase averages 18.0 PPR points per game, while Higgins puts up 14.2 FPG. For reference, this is equivalent to last year’s WR6 and WR22 in per-game output.
19c. Before Joe Burrow (wrist) was lost for the season, Chase was averaging career-highs in receptions (7.7) and yards per game (91.2) in Weeks 1-10 (nine games together).
19d. The Bengals are projected to score more points (24.8 implied PPG), and they’re favored in more games (13) than the Texans (24.2 implied PPG | favored in 10 games). There should not be a 2-round gap between C.J. Stroud and Burrow in ADP.
18. Over the last three combined seasons, Joe Burrow is the QB5 in fantasy points per game, trailing only QB1 Josh Allen, QB2 Jalen Hurts, QB3 Patrick Mahomes, and QB4 Lamar Jackson.
18b. In this span, Burrow is third in passing yards per game with 271.3. That trails only Patrick Mahomes (285.4 YPG) and Justin Herbert (274.2).
18c. Burrow has been a stud from an efficiency standpoint, too. He ranks fourth-best in touchdown rate (5.6%) – behind only Aaron Rodgers (5.9%), Dak Prescott (6.1%), and Brock Purdy (7.2%) since 2021. He ranks fifth-best in YPA (7.6).
18d. The Bengals' pass rate over expectation has risen in three straight seasons in Burrow’s starts. In 2021, they were 10th (+4.4%). Two years ago, their PROE rose to +9.6% (second-highest). Last year? Well, well, well. Their pass rate shot up to +11.2% in Weeks 1-10.
18e. Only the Chiefs were more pass-heavy (+11.7% pass rate over expected) than the Bengals to start last year. Keep in mind, Burrow was not 100% healthy to start the season (calf).
19. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have played in 37 games together with Joe Burrow in their careers. Their first-read target share in those games:
Chase – 31.5% (would rank WR13 last season behind Justin Jefferson)
Higgins – 25.1% (WR32 tied with Calvin Ridley)
19b. In these 37 games, Chase averages 18.0 PPR points per game, while Higgins puts up 14.2 FPG. For reference, this is equivalent to last year’s WR6 and WR22 in per-game output.
19c. Before Joe Burrow (wrist) was lost for the season, Chase was averaging career-highs in receptions (7.7) and yards per game (91.2) in Weeks 1-10 (nine games together).
19d. The Bengals are projected to score more points (24.8 implied PPG), and they’re favored in more games (13) than the Texans (24.2 implied PPG | favored in 10 games). There should not be a 2-round gap between C.J. Stroud and Burrow in ADP.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:48 pm to CBandits82
Cleveland Browns
20. Deshaun Watson has made 11 full starts over the last two seasons, in which he’s averaged just 201.5 passing yards per game (QB30).
20b. Aidan O’Connell averaged 201.6 YPG across 11 appearances last season.
20c. Watson averaged 269.2 YPG in his first four years in Houston.
20d. Amari Cooper has actually averaged fewer fantasy points per game (13.5) in Watson’s starts than with the Browns backups (15.9 FPG).
20e. David Njoku has averaged fewer targets (5.5 per game) and PPR points (8.9 per game) across Deshaun Watson’s 10 full starts than with the Browns backup QBs (7.4 T/G | 13.0 PPR FPG).
20f. Njoku had a Linsanity run with Joe Flacco last season in which he put up 18.6 PPR FPG over his final five games. This wasn’t a fluke. Njoku finally put it all together after showing flashes of immense talent mired by inconsistency.
20g. Njoku (7.48) was just barely edged out by Kittle (7.51) for the position lead in yards after the catch per reception.
20. Deshaun Watson has made 11 full starts over the last two seasons, in which he’s averaged just 201.5 passing yards per game (QB30).
20b. Aidan O’Connell averaged 201.6 YPG across 11 appearances last season.
20c. Watson averaged 269.2 YPG in his first four years in Houston.
20d. Amari Cooper has actually averaged fewer fantasy points per game (13.5) in Watson’s starts than with the Browns backups (15.9 FPG).
20e. David Njoku has averaged fewer targets (5.5 per game) and PPR points (8.9 per game) across Deshaun Watson’s 10 full starts than with the Browns backup QBs (7.4 T/G | 13.0 PPR FPG).
20f. Njoku had a Linsanity run with Joe Flacco last season in which he put up 18.6 PPR FPG over his final five games. This wasn’t a fluke. Njoku finally put it all together after showing flashes of immense talent mired by inconsistency.
20g. Njoku (7.48) was just barely edged out by Kittle (7.51) for the position lead in yards after the catch per reception.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:49 pm to CBandits82
Dallas Cowboys
21. CeeDee Lamb (23.8 PPR FPG) just edged out Tyreek Hill (23.7 FPG) as the WR1 last season.
21b. He got off to a little bit of a slow start, but closed out the regular season on one of the best runs by a receiver we’ve seen in NFL history.
21c. In 13 games from Weeks 6-19 (including playoffs), Lamb earned a ridiculous 12.5 targets and averaged 115.5 receiving yards per game.
21d. For reference, 12.5 targets per game – over the course of a full season – would equate to sixth-most by a WR in a single year all-time.
21e. If Lamb were to sustain his 27.3 PPR points per game in this stretch from Week 6-19 last season, it would easily be the best fantasy football season ever by a wide receiver.
21f. Jerry Rice has the two best individual seasons by a receiver in fantasy football history with 26.3 FPG (1987) and 25.9 FPG (1995).
22. Dak Prescott has finished as the QB10, QB13, QB16, QB2, QB1, QB10, QB11, and QB5 (last season) in his fantasy career.
22b. Dak’s pass attempts went up from 32.8 to 34.7 per game last season as Dallas morphed into a top-6 team in pass rate over expectation. The only reason that Prescott’s volume didn’t go bananas was because their defense was so good and gave them so many leads last season.
22c. Dallas (+8.4% over expected) actually led the NFL in pass rate by one-tenth of a point over Kansas City (+8.3%) from Weeks 8-18.
22d. The Cowboys personnel choices at RB tell you all that you need to know about their approach this season. They’re going to sling it.
21. CeeDee Lamb (23.8 PPR FPG) just edged out Tyreek Hill (23.7 FPG) as the WR1 last season.
21b. He got off to a little bit of a slow start, but closed out the regular season on one of the best runs by a receiver we’ve seen in NFL history.
21c. In 13 games from Weeks 6-19 (including playoffs), Lamb earned a ridiculous 12.5 targets and averaged 115.5 receiving yards per game.
21d. For reference, 12.5 targets per game – over the course of a full season – would equate to sixth-most by a WR in a single year all-time.
21e. If Lamb were to sustain his 27.3 PPR points per game in this stretch from Week 6-19 last season, it would easily be the best fantasy football season ever by a wide receiver.
21f. Jerry Rice has the two best individual seasons by a receiver in fantasy football history with 26.3 FPG (1987) and 25.9 FPG (1995).
22. Dak Prescott has finished as the QB10, QB13, QB16, QB2, QB1, QB10, QB11, and QB5 (last season) in his fantasy career.
22b. Dak’s pass attempts went up from 32.8 to 34.7 per game last season as Dallas morphed into a top-6 team in pass rate over expectation. The only reason that Prescott’s volume didn’t go bananas was because their defense was so good and gave them so many leads last season.
22c. Dallas (+8.4% over expected) actually led the NFL in pass rate by one-tenth of a point over Kansas City (+8.3%) from Weeks 8-18.
22d. The Cowboys personnel choices at RB tell you all that you need to know about their approach this season. They’re going to sling it.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:52 pm to CBandits82
Denver Broncos
23c. It’s fair to wonder if the burst and elusiveness that made us fall in love with him at UNC is no longer there. Williams’ 0.14 missed tackles forced per carry ranked a lowly 44th-of-49 RBs.
23d. The Broncos backfield is clear-cut right now. Williams will play on 50-60% of early-downs with Jaleel McLaughlin mixing in heavily in passing situations. The duo split snaps 11 to 9 – in favor of McLaughlin – on Nix’s 20 preseason snaps in Week 2. Rookie RB Audric Estime is the direct backup to the early-down role.
23c. It’s fair to wonder if the burst and elusiveness that made us fall in love with him at UNC is no longer there. Williams’ 0.14 missed tackles forced per carry ranked a lowly 44th-of-49 RBs.
23d. The Broncos backfield is clear-cut right now. Williams will play on 50-60% of early-downs with Jaleel McLaughlin mixing in heavily in passing situations. The duo split snaps 11 to 9 – in favor of McLaughlin – on Nix’s 20 preseason snaps in Week 2. Rookie RB Audric Estime is the direct backup to the early-down role.
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