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re: 2019 NFL - News, Notes and Stats

Posted on 9/26/19 at 11:55 am to
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
162876 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 11:55 am to
quote:

He’s due for positive regression on that end.


Such an over used “expert” term in the Twitterverse
Posted by MickeyLikesDags21
Member since Apr 2019
6641 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 12:31 pm to
Has anyone made a move for Barkley?

I'm having a hard time valuing him right now. Guy in my league is 0-3 AND was riding the Ekeler wave. I was thinking about sending Fournette/J Jackson(was going to drop after this week) for his Ekeler/Barkley.

HPPR & I'm 3-0. I'd still have Ingram/Breida/Ekeler(after trade)/mattison/Brown to try and get me to Barkley's return. At THAT point, i'd be tough to beat with Watson/ingram/barkley/julio/AJ/TY & Kelce.
Posted by DeathValley85
Member since May 2011
19207 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 12:39 pm to
Explain why he would do that trade...

Is Fournette an upgrade over Ekeler even with Gordon playing? Why would anyone want Justin Jackson for any reason?
This post was edited on 9/26/19 at 12:42 pm
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
162876 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 12:41 pm to
if Barkley is on the long end of that estimate, you're looking at not having him until week one of the playoffs. So yeah it'd be nice to have him for that stretch but I'd still wait a few more weeks and be more secure about my playoff spot before making that move
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
33449 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 12:43 pm to
I think he and Flacco get it fixed this week. No Jalen Ramsey, and this is only their second game in Denver this year (first was against Bears). They’ve also played 2 very good defenses in 3 weeks of play so far
Posted by TigerMan327
Elsewhere
Member since Feb 2011
6189 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 12:46 pm to
You can send it.

No one would accept that trade though
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
33449 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

Positive regression

quote:

Such an over used “expert” term in the Twitterverse

A lot of stupid people over use it in some bad cases when they don’t really understand it. This case it actually applies IMO
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
33449 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 12:48 pm to
I think you’re gonna hurt yourself with that lineup. Ekeler and Breida are about to lose some touches for sure. You’re gonna be scraping for RB points waiting for Barkley, and there’s no guarantee he comes back this year since Giants won’t compete for anything
Posted by MickeyLikesDags21
Member since Apr 2019
6641 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

Explain why he would do that trade...

Is Fournette an upgrade over Ekeler even with Gordon playing? Why would anyone want Justin Jackson for any reason?




I understand what you're saying and that's part of the reason I'm asking as far as value goes.

Fournette gets 95% of the touches in Jax, with MG back Ekeler will fall. Fournette hasn't played well but touches are king and you figure (i do, at least) that this a slump for him and not an indicator for the rest of the season.

Jackson would've been a throw in since I'd drop him after this week anyway. Dude's 0-3 and needs wins now. Jackson is in my flex this weekend and would be in his flex as well.

You guys are right. If it takes that much explanation I'm over valuing my own guys. I'll ride with what I've got. Appreciate it.
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
162876 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 12:57 pm to
if its a situation like Julio where he's a talented WR in a potent offense, there's just some bad luck in connecting down there yeah eventually that's going to correct itself.

When you've got Flacco throwing to you, inefficiency is expected
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
162876 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 1:00 pm to
I'd do a Fournette for Barkley straight up swap if I were an 0-3 barkley owner...wouldn't throw in Ekeler though
Posted by dj30
New Orleans
Member since Feb 2006
29855 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 1:00 pm to
quote:


Is Fournette an upgrade over Ekeler even with Gordon playing?


Yes
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
33449 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 1:03 pm to
I disagree on that. The Julio thing was the exact opposite of positive regression. It’s unlikely that a QB and WR are going to continually disconnect on red zone TD passes, or that a WR leading his team in air yards won’t score a TD (Sutton). The Julio thing Matt Ryan wasn’t even looking at him. The Falcons were using him as a distraction to draw double coverage in the end zone to free up everyone else. Julio wasn’t getting any red zone targets. That was a scheme issue, not just a statistical outlier, which is what regression is based off. It ended up being that every team figured out what the Falcons were doing with Julio and started fading coverage away from him, so Matt Ryan had to start going back to him in the endzone
This post was edited on 9/26/19 at 1:04 pm
Posted by DeathValley85
Member since May 2011
19207 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 1:10 pm to
quote:

Yes


Agree, but not so much that someone might throw in Barkley.

But also at Fournette having a 69 yard run last week and finishing with 66 yards
Posted by TigerLunatik
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2005
108420 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 2:56 pm to
quote:

Damien Williams will again not practice for the Chiefs today. Looking like a second straight week off for him.
Posted by MickeyLikesDags21
Member since Apr 2019
6641 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 3:35 pm to
Damn. I legitimately thought he just tweaked it, not a multiple week injury. Mccoy will put up stupid numbers if he can stay healthy
Posted by litenin
Houston
Member since Mar 2016
2740 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 3:35 pm to
I have also been expecting more from Fournette this year, although just found a few reasons to be more positive about him going forward.

First is his lack of TDs, which I think will change simply because of his usage and also being their best option in short yardage.

Next is his increased involvement in the passing game. If you take his yards from scrimmage this year and assume he continues that through 16 games (big if for injuries of course), then he ends up with 1,456 yards. That would have put him as the 6th best RB last year.

Minshew appears to be a much better fit than they've had at QB in the past, which should start to ease the box a little.
Posted by TigerLunatik
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2005
108420 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 3:55 pm to
Williams supposedly just has a knee contusion. Being out 2 weekw seems like more than just a contusion to me, but I'm not doctor.
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
33449 posts
Posted on 9/26/19 at 4:18 pm to
I would play Sutton over Brown in PPR
Posted by TigerLunatik
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2005
108420 posts
Posted on 9/27/19 at 9:49 am to
Godwin practicing today.

Devin Singletary also practicing.
This post was edited on 9/27/19 at 10:23 am
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