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re: 2018 Early Fantasy Football Discussion

Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:04 pm to
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
290874 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:04 pm to
His value is almost tied to catching passes, not that that is a problem, but you just don’t know what his usage will be or how good that offense will be even. They aren’t committed to him long term, he’s never been impressive as a ball carrier, and we know they like Brieda a lot.

Not a fan of him, I think his upside is super limited.
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
162911 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:05 pm to
well another qualm would be I've never seen the guy look very impressive running the football

still this is an offense where carlos hyde caught 50+ passes so McKinnon probably has a safe floor
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
74444 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:14 pm to
He flashed last year, but MIN had one of the worst OLs in the game.

SF low key has a sneaky good OL. If Jimmy G is for real, he will demand the D respect. you’re paying for the air game w JM obviously. He can catch it

SF OL

quote:

Of all the teams on the list, the 49ers have some of the best potential to outplay their current ranking. The reason being unfulfilled potential. Laken Tomlinson and Joshua Garnett are both former first-round picks who have yet to fulfill their potential. Tomlinson took huge strides forward though last season with a career high 70.7 overall grade while Garnett never got to build on a disappointing rookie campaign (39.6 overall grade) as he missed all last year with a knee injury. Both were highly touted by us here at PFF coming out of college as well. Then you add Weston Richburg – who earned an 86.5 grade back in 2015 – and Mike McGlinchey – PFF’s top-rated tackle in the 2018 draft
Posted by Tiger Voodoo
Champs 03 07 09 11(fack) 19!!!
Member since Mar 2007
22120 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

Many coordinators have a tough first year.



I mean, point me to the years that make Sark seem like a good OC


The numbers for the entire ATL offense were drastically worse last year than they had been the years before under Shan.
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 12:20 pm
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
162911 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:20 pm to
quote:

but MIN had one of the worst OLs in the game.



I don't think they graded out that badly but I'd have to look, Cook was still way more efficient running behind that same OL.

quote:

you’re paying for the air game w JM obviously. He can catch it


agreed so like I said, he's got a relatively safe floor. But as earl said, if he doesn't run the ball effectively and cedes some of those reps to other back I worry about his ceiling.
Posted by Tiger Voodoo
Champs 03 07 09 11(fack) 19!!!
Member since Mar 2007
22120 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:23 pm to
Yeah I specifically pointed out the full PPR in my first post.

His pass catching and volume alone make his floor solid as an RB2. That’s of course assuming he stays healthy, but that goes for any RB. Although granted he is a concern there until he proves he can do it full time.


I’m high on SF in a wide open division behind LA. I think Shan is legit and was willing to bank on him over Sark to coach and play call for my RB2
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 12:24 pm
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
162911 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:55 pm to
they're close I'd just probably prefer a guy that has proved he can produce at an elite level in freeman. While sark certainly did some odd shite with RZ touches for him, you also have to factor in he was pretty banged up last year.
Posted by Tiger Voodoo
Champs 03 07 09 11(fack) 19!!!
Member since Mar 2007
22120 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 2:50 pm to
Yeah I’m certainly not arguing against anyone that would take Freeman over JMc. I know I’m in the minority there. Just laying out my thought process since there was chat about him.


Also, I don’t draft guys in fantasy just because they are on my team, in fact I tend avoid them, but I admit I do also ind myself avoiding players for teams I don’t like, so there is definitely some personal bias there for me against ATL and Carolina
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 2:51 pm
Posted by CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
59081 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 4:42 pm to
everyday that goes by the more and more I want Sony Michel on my teams.
Posted by TechDawg2007
Bawville
Member since Nov 2007
32576 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 7:44 pm to
quote:

Roto World Football: Seals-Jones arrested for assault in Arizona
Posted by CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
59081 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 8:19 pm to
mini hype train derailed
Posted by jammintiger
Member since Feb 2007
600 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 8:40 pm to
Hyde caught a lot of passes but it seemed like that all but stopped when jimmy g took over. The check down passes all turned into passes downfield - at least that’s how it felt as a Hyde owner.

ETA: 3, 0, 2, 3, 2 is how many passes Hyde got in games with jimmy g as starting qb. 10 passes in 5 games. He caught 49 in the 11 games without jimmy.
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 8:57 pm
Posted by bamabenny
Member since Nov 2009
15761 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 11:07 am to
I just don't think I can spend a high second/early third round pick on McKinnon. I certainly wouldn't take him over a proven commodity like Freeman.
Posted by Tiger Voodoo
Champs 03 07 09 11(fack) 19!!!
Member since Mar 2007
22120 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 12:10 pm to
Yeah like I said I wouldn’t argue with anyone taking Freeman over JMc. Most would, he’s rated higher. A safer pick.


That said, Freeman scored 22 more points than him last year and is projected on our league site as less than 10 more than him this year.


Given the volume increase alone I like his upside and think the floors aren’t terribly far apart.


Had I not had Zeke fall to me and been picking for my RB1, I may have gone Freeman instead. But as an RB2 pick I like the guy in SF offense under Shan and the potential he has




ETA:

quote:

Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 5.3 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Ezekiel Elliott ranked third and Jerick McKinnon ranked at #13.
This post was edited on 7/18/18 at 2:36 pm
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8782 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:24 pm to
quote:

Hyde caught a lot of passes but it seemed like that all but stopped when jimmy g took over. The check down passes all turned into passes downfield - at least that’s how it felt as a Hyde owner.

ETA: 3, 0, 2, 3, 2 is how many passes Hyde got in games with jimmy g as starting qb. 10 passes in 5 games. He caught 49 in the 11 games without jimmy.


Yea, Hyde's receiving output was just about cut in half during Jimmy G's starts. Jusczyk picked up some of the slack, though, and I think McKinnon will siphon some of his snaps on third down because McKinnnon is a pretty good pass protector.

I think you can trust Shanahan to utilize his running backs in the passing game. Last season's running back passing game usage:

2017
Hyde 88 targets- 59 catches - 350 yards
Breida 36 targets- 21 catches - 180 yards
Jusczyk 42 targets- 33 catches - 315 yards

Hyde's efficiency was awful, geez.

While with Atlanta, Freeman and Coleman combined for 105 targets in 2016 and 108 targets in 2015. This San Francisco team doesn't have an alpha WR like Julio Jones to hog targets. I think Mckinnon could catch like 60-70 passes to go along with the majority of the rushing work he'll likely get. That would probably land him as an RB1, or at least top 15.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
74444 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:51 pm to
Remember Shanahan was never all in on Hyde. It started With trade rumors and ended with him saying there isn’t much difference bt Hyde and Breida. Hyde also had the hip that hampered him late in the year

22% of JG’s pass attempts went to a RB btw

Now reference JM contract and pull Shanny’s quotes on him. You’re talking hand picked by shanny w nearly $20 mil guaranteed

Like you said dally shanny has a RB track record in place. I’d be fine drafting 2 WR and have JM as my RB1 in rd 3. Even better in an auction as a guy who slips through the cracks on a bargain
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8782 posts
Posted on 7/18/18 at 5:33 pm to
I agree, it seems clear to me that they value McKinnon’s versatility and he was a clear target for them in FA. I think he’s actually fairly safe from a schematic standpoint when you look at the role he should play in an offense that I think will be above average. Health could be a concern given that he’s never fully handled the load, I guess.
Posted by CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
59081 posts
Posted on 7/24/18 at 9:01 am to
quote:

Updating previous reports, Cleveland Browns WR Josh Gordon is seeking additional counseling to deal with his mental health and anxiety, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter. Gordon has regularly been in touch with his counselors and was told to take the extra time in a proactive move, sources said.
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
162911 posts
Posted on 7/24/18 at 9:38 am to
quote:

Now reference JM contract and pull Shanny’s quotes on him. You’re talking hand picked by shanny w nearly $20 mil guaranteed

Like you said dally shanny has a RB track record in place


That's not to say shanny is infallible and incapable of perhaps getting one wrong. This only guarantees he gets the early shot but again if he continues to be ineffective running the ball he could lose touches.

Also, much of devonta freeman's value came from an insane efficiency within the RZ, McKinnon hasn't shown that ability yet and I believe lost many of those touches to Murray last year.

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