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12 Players With Amazingly Similar Stats But Wildly Different Draft Costs

Posted on 7/24/14 at 3:48 pm
Posted by Iona Fan Man
Member since Jan 2006
27462 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 3:48 pm
Interesting perscpective










LINK
Posted by Byron Bojangles III
Member since Nov 2012
51614 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 3:51 pm to
Julius caught twice as many TD's though. And Patterson is flat out better than Austin
Posted by BhamTigah
Lurker since Jan 2003
Member since Jan 2007
14093 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 3:52 pm to
Cincinnati Ginger vs any QB not named Drew or Peyton
Posted by Dharma Initiative
Fox River State Penitentiary
Member since Feb 2013
139 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 3:54 pm to
Idk if "Amazingly" is the word I'd use there. I realize that's the article and not you.

Goes to show you how much perceived potential is worth.
Posted by Iona Fan Man
Member since Jan 2006
27462 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

Julius caught twice as many TD's though


quote:

There are not many TEs who receive 90+ targets, only 9 did in 2013. Four of Bennett’s five TDs were with Jay Cutler under center.


Culter accounted for 60% of total Completions and TDs
Posted by papz
Austin, TX
Member since Jul 2008
9330 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 3:59 pm to
They are basing these comparisons strictly on their 2013 value and not factoring in the increase in touches and player development a player goes through. So yea, if you're going to draft these players based on their 2013 production, and with hindsight being 20/20, why not wait for the value players.

2014 isn't 2013.
Posted by Iona Fan Man
Member since Jan 2006
27462 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

you're going to draft these players based on their 2013 production, and with hindsight being 20/20, why not wait for the value players.

2014 isn't 2013.



many have similar situations

Cutler- elite WRs marshall,alshon w/ PPR RB(forte)
Fitz-elite WRs AJ,Hopkins w/ PPR RB(foster)

Gio-split with Hill...more chance of losing carries(hill bellcow)
J.Bell-split with Bush...more chance of gaining carries(bush hurt)

Thomas-dynamic passing game wide open middle
Bennet-dynamic passing game wide open middle

Lacy-fragile back(starks and Harris) (26pts/game team avg)
Matthews-fragile back(Brown and woodhead) (24pts/game team avg)

Bell-split Blount(5ypc career avg)
MJD- split DMAC(3.3 ypc 2 year avg)


just saying it's not that far of a spread/forecast for 2014
Posted by Byron Bojangles III
Member since Nov 2012
51614 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 4:19 pm to
MJD isn't I'm the same situation at all
Posted by Iona Fan Man
Member since Jan 2006
27462 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 4:24 pm to
quote:

MJD isn't I'm the same situation at all


better?

Bell has Blount stealing carries and Dri Archer stealing catches?

MJD just has to bet out a frail, ineffective DMAC

OAK line allowed Jennings and Reece a +4.5 avg...while in PITT had Bell, Felix and Dwyer <4 yard avg
Posted by papz
Austin, TX
Member since Jul 2008
9330 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 4:33 pm to
The only thing I take away from the article is that players outperform their ADP all the time and there's plenty of value to be had in the later rounds. The discrepancy in ADP is due to the the fact you have no idea who those overachievers are going to be... it's just a guess. Players at a higher ADP have a higher likelihood of giving you numbers.

In each of those cases, while their numbers were similar last year, you go for the better bet at the higher ADP the majority of the time. You also have to factor in ceiling and floor as well... which this piece does not.
This post was edited on 7/24/14 at 4:34 pm
Posted by Sanchito
Member since Apr 2012
995 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 5:35 pm to
quote:

Bell has Blount stealing carries and Dri Archer stealing catches?
No one was knocking down doors to sign Blount. He'll get 5-7 carries a game not a real impact on Bell.
Posted by Iona Fan Man
Member since Jan 2006
27462 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 6:08 pm to
quote:

No one was knocking down doors to sign Blount. He'll get 5-7 carries a game not a real impact on Bell


he's disrespected and then outperforms starters

among active RB's with over 500 carries, Blount is the 5th best RB in ypc(4.7...hindered by that lone year(3.7) with Dmart that had him in in only short yardage situations)

Pats stuck him back on returns and he finished having the 4th BEST KR avg last year at 29.1

quote:

Blount is a powerful hammer back who can get what's blocked but possesses no wiggle and stones for hands.


how can people say this?


some from last year




Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278082 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 6:37 pm to
I could pick just about everyone of those apart. The only ones with merit are Cutler vs Fitz, and Tavon vs Patterson.
Posted by dualed
Member since Sep 2010
4683 posts
Posted on 7/24/14 at 7:02 pm to
quote:

stones for hands


I'd say so... LINK

Posted by Sanchito
Member since Apr 2012
995 posts
Posted on 9/12/14 at 12:22 am to
quote:

he's disrespected and then outperforms starters
Decided to bump this after two weeks.
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