re: Are Early Numbers Showing Cannibalism?

I don't think many states are reporting ED turnout numbers. Florida is and right now R's are leading D's by ~20% in ED turnout.

The "cannibalism" concern may be unfounded due to poor reporting and/or misunderstanding. At least in Pennsylvania (and probably other states) R's didn't really increase their EV totals from 2020. In PA R's had 580k EVs in 2020. They had 590k EVs in 2024. Only a nominal 10k increase.

The big change was the DECREASE in D EVs. In PN in 2020 D's had 1.6M EVs. This year (2024) that number fell to 1.1 EVs. That means in 2020 D's had a 1.1M "lead" going into election day. This year they have a 400k "lead"

D's won PA by ~100k despite starting with a 1.1M "lead". Thus, theoretically, if R's turn out today in the exact same numbers as 2020 and D's do the same the R's ED vote will surpass the 400k "lead" D's started out with today.

To put it in sports terms: In 2020 D's went into halftime with a 28-10 lead. In the second half (election day) R's significantly outscored the D's (18-3) but came up short, losing 31-28

This year it looks like the D's are going into halftime in some states with a 14-10 lead (in some states R's have the lead). The R's have the same amount of points at halftime this year as they did in 2020, but the D's lead is much lower because they scored less in the first half.

I think we should have at least 55 of this topic on the first page at all times.

Not in PA. Apparently Republicans only exceed their 2020 early vote slightly. It was the dems who fell hundreds of thousands short. They need to make that up today.