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Started By
Message
tOfficial Nate Silver fail thread
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:07 am
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:07 am
Can we get some clarification on just how much devolving Nate's surname has undergone during this process?
Nate tin foil? Plastic?
Nate tin foil? Plastic?
6
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:12 am to 225bred
There will be a few luddites that will be on here shortly to tell you that Nate Velcro was within 30% of getting it right, so he was essentially the closest to reality
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:17 am to RobbBobb
quote:So given the polling information, Trump losing the popular vote, and the margins in swing states, what do you think the probability of this outcome was beforehand?
There will be a few luddites that will be on here shortly to tell you that Nate Velcro was within 30% of getting it right, so he was essentially the closest to reality
Posted on 11/9/16 at 5:45 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
what do you think the probability of this outcome was beforehand?
I have been telling you since Day 1 that I had the same info as Nate, and was banking on a Trump win. Trump had the same numbers as Nate, and knew that Penn, Mich, and Wisc was winnable and went there. Clintonistas used Nates 'view' and never went one time to Wisc. Not once
Yet Nate had Trump at 15%, around a week out.
Sorry his algorithm is shite, and biased. Based on voting patterns that he pines for, not what is fairly well known thru research. Basically, hes lazy
Posted on 11/9/16 at 5:52 pm to RobbBobb
quote:And Nate even commended Trump's approach to going to these states and questioned why Hillary was in Arizona. He knew Trump had a good chance, but that doesn't mean he was the favorite to win.
Trump had the same numbers as Nate, and knew that Penn, Mich, and Wisc was winnable and went there.
quote:The model lags the data and the data lag the changes in views. It increased rapidly last week for a reason following the changing in polling data.
Yet Nate had Trump at 15%, around a week out.
quote:It's flawed (and he has admitted it), but it gave the Trump the best odds of any model despite the data showing a Clinton lead.
Sorry his algorithm is shite, and biased.
What else is he supposed to do? Just ignore the inputs of his model?
Posted on 11/9/16 at 5:54 pm to 225bred
The problem was Nate's method was using polls that were absolute bullshite.
Some of us tried to tell y'all that but you wouldn't listen.
Some of us tried to tell y'all that but you wouldn't listen.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 5:55 pm to 225bred
What we do know for sure is that the vast majority of the posters attacking Silver have no understanding of statistics, modeling or forecasting.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 5:58 pm to 225bred
Posted on 11/9/16 at 6:01 pm to bamarep
quote:But that's the whole purpose of the model. Now it over to grading the accuracy of the pollsters. So the pollsters who were spot on (Selzer) will be rightfully lauded.
The problem was Nate's method was using polls that were absolute bull shite.
quote:They were flawed, but they weren't "made up" like you argued.
Some of us tried to tell y'all that but you wouldn't listen.
In fact, with Clinton likely to win the popular vote by over a percent (once the last votes are added in CA and other blue states), the National polls will only be off by a couple points. Interestingly LATIMES will probably have one of the biggest misses.
This post was edited on 11/9/16 at 6:04 pm
Posted on 11/9/16 at 6:04 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
o given the polling information
You said that wasn't rigged.
Lolzy.
quote:
buckeye_vol
Beg waiting for you to show up
Posted on 11/9/16 at 6:04 pm to cwill
quote:
What we do know for sure is that the vast majority of the posters attacking Silver have no understanding of statistics, modeling or forecasting.
We know Silver was dead wrong. What good are his statistics and projections if they cant actually predict what will happen?
Posted on 11/9/16 at 6:11 pm to CptBengal
quote:It wasn't. It was wrong, at the state level, but national polls were fairly close.
You said that wasn't rigged.
Lolzy.
quote:I posted a crow eating thread last night. Congrats MAGAers: Official Crow Eating Thread
Beg waiting for you to show up
Posted on 11/9/16 at 6:15 pm to buckeye_vol
Andrew Gelman put out an article on his website that goes into good detail discussing what happened.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 6:17 pm to bamarep
quote:
The problem was Nate's method was using polls that were absolute bullshite. Some of us tried to tell y'all that but you wouldn't listen.
In their defense, a lot of people got egg on their face last cycle when they tried to "unskew" the polls but that time they turned out to be pretty accurate. That lead to the Karl Rove melt and Nate Bronze's reputation.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 6:20 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
They were flawed, but they weren't "made up" like you argued.
How do you type that with a straight face?
A poll is supposed to be a 'snapshot' of what a particular group is feeling at that moment in time. So if its 'flawed' then the results are MADE UP! Because it purposefully does not do, what it is supposed to do: show what the electorate was thinking
And when I say made up, I mean to oversample minorities, white women, college grads is seeking to get a specific result, and not realistically looking for the actual snapshot
Posted on 11/9/16 at 6:22 pm to RobbBobb
quote:What?
So if its 'flawed' then the results are MADE UP!
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:37 pm to bamafan1001
quote:
We know Silver was dead wrong. What good are his statistics and projections if they cant actually predict what will happen?
Exhibit A.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 9:41 pm to 225bred
538 gives nate silver and F
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:53 am to 225bred
Nate's biggest fail last night was his hair. Holy shite did he look bad
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:56 am to gaetti15
Link?
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