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Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:00 am to More&Les
quote:
<< says hello.
I had civil discussions about elections and policy with Fox
You just got pissed that I don't like Trump
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:00 am to gaetti15
quote:Yeah. It was a concern. But I think it was also maybe an over-response for Hillary supporters, given the lower turnout, which was expected (before early voting) then unexpected (after high early voting).
it was non-response bias...they didn't account for it
This post was edited on 11/9/16 at 11:01 am
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:00 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Trump will still have fewer votes than Romney (and Bush in 2004) and maybe even fewer votes than McCain.
this is a very important point if we want to think about what this all means for an actual mandate, and for the future of the electorate (but it's probably not the time for it to be discussed)
and it's also unclear what those who refused to support hillary will do in the future, but they definitely hosed her here
she's at something like 58.9 million total votes compared to Obama's 65.9 in 2012
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:01 am to Pettifogger
quote:
Trump's internals were off too.
Kellyanne said this morning that 7 to 10 days out they didn't even believe their numbers in Wisconsin. They had to re-poll just to verify.
I think that is why you saw Ryan nudge toward Trump late.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:01 am to GumboPot
quote:
Kellyanne said this morning that 7 to 10 days out they didn't even believe their numbers in Wisconsin. They had to re-poll just to verify.
I haven't seen her comments, I'm going off what Huckabee's daughter said last night
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:02 am to Pettifogger
We kept it pretty civil man, you thought I went crazy and I was lost but i think we gotta give a nod to the original trumpkins. It's apparent to me they saw something we couldn't
They weren't dumb
They weren't dumb
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:05 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:I mean turnout is all part of the process, but we already knew Hillary was a terrible candidate. The question was was Trump terrible enough to overlook it. Apparently not, but it's crazy just how wide the electoral-popular split will be, unlike 2004 which was close both ways:
this is a very important point if we want to think about what this all means for an actual mandate, and for the future of the electorate (but it's probably not the time for it to be discussed)
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:06 am to DelU249
quote:
It's apparent to me they saw something we couldn't
I thought there would be better turnout. I'll have to check but I think Trump received better turnout in states that he campaigned hard in and the other states turnout was suppressed. The negative tone of BOTH campaigns didn't help the turnout results overall.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:07 am to Pettifogger
quote:
I had civil discussions about elections and policy with Fox
You just got pissed that I don't like Trump
Whatever dude. You were a condescending jerk every chance you got you were entirely sure I'd be eating crownridge. But hey, I understand, be you man.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:10 am to GumboPot
Oh I've thought he'd win for a few months but you guys were onto something 500 days out and despite a ton of shite you weren't discouraged
It's pretty fricking impressive
It's pretty fricking impressive
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:11 am to DelU249
I'll lay out my thoughts on it, which will still piss off some but whatever:
1) I was definitely off on polling, I predicted she'd win 293. I never claimed Trump couldn't win, but I'll certainly admit I didn't expect him too. My approach for anyone who has paid attention has been "I think she's got it, but..." because I frankly don't know what to expect this cycle. But even with that caveat, I didn't expect last night.
2) Trumpkins on the ground level believed in what they saw around them. They were right, and people like me were wrong. I don't know that I trust their methodology applied to other situations, but their confidence doesn't look silly today, does it?
3) I still think a lot of Trumpkins are dumb. People who call every woman who disagrees with Trump a stupid bitch count and tell Michelle Obama to get in the back of the bus where she belongs just aren't people I'm ever going to come around to. Ditto for the people who want to hold public executions for political enemies, or worship Trump more than the idea of Trump.
4) That said, people are clearly angry, and while I don't think some of these people are thinking clearly, it's a democracy, and they won. I voted for him, but obviously I don't think I fit squarely within that group. Nonetheless, I think there are a lot of good people on the Trump train, and other good people in my camp who voted for him out of necessity. Hopefully he will turn folks like me into outright supporters, time will tell.
1) I was definitely off on polling, I predicted she'd win 293. I never claimed Trump couldn't win, but I'll certainly admit I didn't expect him too. My approach for anyone who has paid attention has been "I think she's got it, but..." because I frankly don't know what to expect this cycle. But even with that caveat, I didn't expect last night.
2) Trumpkins on the ground level believed in what they saw around them. They were right, and people like me were wrong. I don't know that I trust their methodology applied to other situations, but their confidence doesn't look silly today, does it?
3) I still think a lot of Trumpkins are dumb. People who call every woman who disagrees with Trump a stupid bitch count and tell Michelle Obama to get in the back of the bus where she belongs just aren't people I'm ever going to come around to. Ditto for the people who want to hold public executions for political enemies, or worship Trump more than the idea of Trump.
4) That said, people are clearly angry, and while I don't think some of these people are thinking clearly, it's a democracy, and they won. I voted for him, but obviously I don't think I fit squarely within that group. Nonetheless, I think there are a lot of good people on the Trump train, and other good people in my camp who voted for him out of necessity. Hopefully he will turn folks like me into outright supporters, time will tell.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:11 am to DelU249
Polls were pretty fricked this year. I was wrong 
edit: I was right about NV and CO though. So not totally wrong
edit: I was right about NV and CO though. So not totally wrong
This post was edited on 11/9/16 at 11:14 am
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:13 am to Pettifogger
Well I only looked at NC in depth
But to me if you cook one, they're all bullshite. For me it reaffirms the power of abstract reasoning combined with big time anecdotal evidence
But to me if you cook one, they're all bullshite. For me it reaffirms the power of abstract reasoning combined with big time anecdotal evidence
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:14 am to Pettifogger
quote:
Trumpkins on the ground level believed in what they saw around them. They were right, and people like me were wrong. I don't know that I trust their methodology applied to other situations, but their confidence doesn't look silly today, does it?
There's the rub. It's hard to know what can be learned here about polling/projection methods, if anything even can be learned that will apply in the future.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:14 am to More&Les
quote:
Whatever dude. You were a condescending jerk every chance you got you were entirely sure I'd be eating crownridge. But hey, I understand, be you man.
I think if you actually went back and read our exchanges, you'd find you came after me far more than the opposite, and that I repeatedly tried to engage you on a substantive, not-shite talking level.
I can certainly be a jerk. So can you. But I honestly don't think there is anyone who has come at me with a reasonable approach, albeit a passionate one, who I don't get along with on some level. NIH, Fox, on occasion even GumboPot.
I like to argue, and that'll piss some people off. But I don't desire personal animosity.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:15 am to DelU249
quote:It will be interesting to see how far the likely voter screens and turnout projections differed from reality. I think that's what made the polls so far off.
Well I only looked at NC in depth
But to me if you cook one, they're all bullshite. For me it reaffirms the power of abstract reasoning combined with big time anecdotal evidence
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:16 am to DelU249
quote:
It wasn't just rally attendance. These people weren't ushered in or staged
They were ravenous man. fricking crazy enthusiastic for change
The rally attendance was the most obvious sign of that. It's the "excitement factor" many of us have talked about in the campaign and why we doubted the polls.
If one candidate is pulling 300 per rally in a state that's normally a lock for their party and their opponent is pulling 500, that could be seen as a wash. But when it becomes routine that someone from the opposing party is pulling thousands while the candidate of the favored party is only pulling a couple of hundred in almost every state... signs just don't get more obvious than that.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:17 am to Hog on the Hill
Not the North Carolina polls
For example an NBC/Marist poll had more hispanics voting than are eligible let alone registered...let alone winning 100%
On some they were realistic about the black vote and still had her up comfortably which is ludicrous if you look at the 2008 and 2012 results
For example an NBC/Marist poll had more hispanics voting than are eligible let alone registered...let alone winning 100%
On some they were realistic about the black vote and still had her up comfortably which is ludicrous if you look at the 2008 and 2012 results
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:18 am to Pettifogger
good post with fair stances. Id only say that yeah some trumpkins are dumb but that's because a lot of Americans are dumb.
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