re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"

slackster, gonna poke a little fun at ya now cause BTC all time high seems like it may be only a day or two away

This quarter is traditionally the most bullish quarter of the four year cycle. People tend to anticipate a blow off top around 100-125k and a crash to some unknown level. Institutional adoption may render these forecasts meaningless, but I think being bullish at this level and at this time makes a lot of sense

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slackster, gonna poke a little fun at ya now cause BTC all time high seems like it may be only a day or two away

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Let’s go. My Polkadot is on an absolute tear of late too.

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We converted Slack so well to crypto that hes now diving into shite coins

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Idk wtf Dot does but I was doing some reading and a guy that manages a crypto fund said he was high on it.

As I’ve said on here a few times, Idgaf what clients do with up to 5% of their NW, and I have the same rule for myself. I’ve got 20% or so of my account in BTC and ETH, 30% in DOT, then the other 10% roughly in LINK, SOL, and MATIC. Idk what I’m doing with some of them, but I don’t mind making money with everyone else.

I bought it when it first filed that $40ish gap and bitched out in the low $20s but I didn’t want to have too much concentration in it. The chart has looked good for months and the analytics are allegedly stout for $100k. The shite y’all look at

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Imagine thinking you can double the money supply in a few years and there wont be massive inflation

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I mean they massively expanded the money supply after the Great Recession, and despite the Austrian’s in particular, predicting massive inflation, we couldn’t even keep up with the low target inflation.

Furthermore, despite the huge expansion of the money supply recently, even inflation running higher than it had been, it’s still well below anything one would predict if money supply was the main determinant.

On top of that, while it’s not completely transitory, there are still transitory effects in the inflation rate. Most importantly though, the other driver, what people are categorizing as “supply-chain” issues, is really an issue of spending disproportionately on goods (up well over 10% pre-pandemic) and less on services (down over 2%).

And the demand for goods, and goods that aren’t typically bought a recurring basis (cars, furniture, home improvements) have created the bottleneck, but this also has transitory effects because they don’t typically recur and companies are less likely to expand the supply as a result.

Furthermore, the lack of demand for services is largely a function of the pandemic, which then pushes people to buying more goods instead. But if services rebound, which have less inflationary pressures, and divert demand from goods, this should decrease the inflationary pressures significantly.

In other words, despite the massive expansion of money supply, the transitory base effects, and the disproportionate demand for goods instead of services, inflation is still not very high. So clearly, the money supply has not had a huge impact, and it will likely be less impactful in the future.

Velocity does matter, especially given the unique circumstances in this case. But the expansion of the money supply functions a lot differently nowadays as the fed uses different tools that impacts velocity. For example, after the Great Recession the fed started paying banks interest to hold cash. While a small amount, it’s also risk free, so it’s appeared to have created enough incentive to hold cash instead of deploying it into the economy (velocity). So that money supply, that doesn’t get deployed, is different than if it was deployed.

And besides banks holding cash, individual savings rates have increased, so they’re not deploying it all either. Could they? Sure. But the fact that I’m the savings rate has continued to stay so high, indicates that maybe people have reconsidered their savings habits, instead of spending indiscriminately. Maybe they’ll put it in stocks, crypto, or some other investment assets instead, but those don’t create price pressures so it doesn’t increase inflation.

Not transitory, get ready......

Bump, fundamentals matter

Are we still pretending base money expansion means anything? Is causing inflation?

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Are we still pretending base money expansion means anything? Is causing inflation?

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Youre trolling right? Or wait you really dont know that a lot of it was not base money expansion but trillions injected straight into the real economy via PPP, unemployment, rounds of covid checks etc.

You are aware of this correct?