Youve gone and messed up tomorrows projection ?? If you start with the 83 of today and add Italys delta% for tomorrow, you get 112, from there it should be 112 x Italys 38% in 2 days should read 154.

The highlighted box in your pic was correct in your formula the first time.

The issue with your projections is that theyre only valid as a daily snapshot, since you dont know what tomorrows actual death total will be.

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Posted by udtiger

Over your left shoulder

Member since Nov 2006

98579 posts

Posted on 3/26/20 at 4:02 pm to HighRoller

quote:
Positive test percentage down 4 days in a row

you're watering down NO's tilting of the stats

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Posted by DomincDecoco

of no fixed abode

Member since Oct 2018

10845 posts

Posted on 3/26/20 at 4:10 pm to BigSinna

to get 99, I did the following:

(65 x Italy's percent increase tomorrow- 52%) + 65, = 99 (tomorrows projection)

then it circles back to the same formula, but from the projections column down ((99*.35)+99) all the way down

tddomincdecoco@gmail.com

ETA i see it now, damn thanks.
email me if you still think its wrong

This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 4:44 pm

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Posted by X123F45

Member since Apr 2015

27361 posts

Posted on 3/26/20 at 4:10 pm to lsu777

quote:
The chart was posted four days ago and for four days people have been using the same argument as you, yet the numbers for 4 days straight have held true and on the same path. How can you not acknowledge that.

Because science.

Let's say I have to flip a coin 100x.

50x in and I have flipped 50 heads in a row.

What will the next coin flip be?

In experimental design, if a set of data gives you a result you expect, it does not make the result valid. Quite the opposite. The expectation introduces a bias which shits on your experiment.

The formula is incorrect. The empirical data are valid numbers, yes. But the data are incomplete. Without knowing testing rates, population density, risk factors, eliminating deaths not attributable to the virus, correcting for deaths not being attributed to it, or correctly indexing all of the above into empirical vs normative data sets... The numbers are worthless.

<---Nerd

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Posted by DomincDecoco

of no fixed abode

Member since Oct 2018

10845 posts

Posted on 3/26/20 at 4:19 pm to X123F45

quote:
But the data are incomplete.

this is 100% correct

this is only a curiosity, not science...and certainly no policy should be based on this.

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Posted by tiger91

In my own little world

Member since Nov 2005

36703 posts

Posted on 3/26/20 at 4:39 pm to DomincDecoco

Will you be updating this daily? Just want to know whether to look for it.

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Posted by DomincDecoco

of no fixed abode

Member since Oct 2018

10845 posts

Posted on 3/26/20 at 4:41 pm to tiger91

sure, in the make your bets thread

gonna have to include a disclaimer though

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Posted by josh336

baton rouge

Member since Jan 2007

77353 posts

Posted on 3/26/20 at 5:57 pm to X123F45

With so many unknowns as you pointed out, seems like louisiana made the smart decision by shutting things down

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Posted by lsu777

Lake Charles

Member since Jan 2004

30966 posts

Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:40 pm to X123F45

I understand that

<-----also a nerd (im an engineer, by definition I am a nerd)

But bottom line is right now we are on the same path as Italy. I personally think it levels off, but right now it shows no signs of that and we are matching perfect the last couple days.

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