re: Is this potential Diesel Fuel Shortage Real?

went to Walmart today to fill up (2500 Duramax) and they were all out of diesel.

Gonna check back tomorrow. If they're out, I'll have to go to the Shell station down the road and pay 5.79/gal.

The WH press secretary was asked about this situation. They didn't give a straight answer. The upper part of nation might spent 5k on heating oil this winter. Natural gas will increase to 28%. There is shortage on energy products.

quote:

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Is this potential Diesel Fuel Shortage Real?

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no

Yes... IF:

A) you define "shortage" as levels being lower than normal or historically.

B) you realize that it doesn't become a "real shortage", i.e. not available where needed the most unless something causes disruptions in the production (e.g. gulf coast hurricane).

So it is real by the (a) definition of a shortage. It isn't a real problem unless something derails production.

Prices are rising, as opposed to spiking, indicating the market is baking the low levels of supply into the cake. Production levels are flat or on a slight decline while demand has increased significantly. It is a simple mass balance over, right now, a short period of time. The longer the time those two trends continue (and they are never indefinite) the bigger the problem will become and the more prices will rise.

If prices spike, large amount in short period of time, then it is an indication we're entering into a true shortage, in the conventional definition we're all familiar with, where availability becomes more of an issue than price.