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re: where will we get the juice for all these EVs?
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:05 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:05 pm to Darth_Vader
Your usage of “kWh per month” makes my head hurt.
Simplifying the math.. 75 kWh x 4.5 charges x 276 million vehicles = 129,375,000 kW = 129,375 MW.
Total utility-scale electrical generation capacity is 1,117,475 MW per the EIA with another 27,724 MW in small-scale solar generation.
In other words, we would need a ~10% increase to add an additional 130,000 MW generating capacity. Realistically you need more than that, because I assume the EIA data is peak capacity.
To put it into perspective, we added 260,000 MW of natural gas plus another 170,000 MW in renewable generating capacity between 2000 and 2020. So the generating capacity we added in the past 20 years is 3x more than what would be required by your math. Which means it’s definitely possible.
The larger issue is the grid infrastructure, not power generation.
As for the fuel source, natural gas would likely account for the bulk of it.
ETA: Another note for perspective.. the average utility-scale combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) generator produces around 500 MW. Really big units can push 1,000 MW in some cases, and the larger Entergy gas plants have 1,500-2,000 MW capacities (from multiple generators).
So you’re talking about needing to add in the neighborhood of 3-5 generating units per state.
Simplifying the math.. 75 kWh x 4.5 charges x 276 million vehicles = 129,375,000 kW = 129,375 MW.
Total utility-scale electrical generation capacity is 1,117,475 MW per the EIA with another 27,724 MW in small-scale solar generation.
In other words, we would need a ~10% increase to add an additional 130,000 MW generating capacity. Realistically you need more than that, because I assume the EIA data is peak capacity.
To put it into perspective, we added 260,000 MW of natural gas plus another 170,000 MW in renewable generating capacity between 2000 and 2020. So the generating capacity we added in the past 20 years is 3x more than what would be required by your math. Which means it’s definitely possible.
The larger issue is the grid infrastructure, not power generation.
As for the fuel source, natural gas would likely account for the bulk of it.
ETA: Another note for perspective.. the average utility-scale combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) generator produces around 500 MW. Really big units can push 1,000 MW in some cases, and the larger Entergy gas plants have 1,500-2,000 MW capacities (from multiple generators).
So you’re talking about needing to add in the neighborhood of 3-5 generating units per state.
This post was edited on 6/13/21 at 8:13 pm
5
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:08 pm to lostinbr
quote:
To put it into perspective, we added 260,000 MW of natural gas plus another 170,000 MW in renewable generating capacity between 2000 and 2020. So the generating capacity we added in the past 20 years is 3x more than what would be required by your math. Which means it’s definitely possible.
Well OP is not gonna like that.
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:11 pm to lostinbr
quote:
Your usage of “kWh per month” makes my head hurt.
Simplifying the math.. 75 kWh x 4.5 charges x 276 million vehicles = 129,375,000 kW = 129,375 MW.
Total utility-scale electrical generation capacity is 1,117,475 MW per the EIA with another 27,724 MW in small-scale solar generation.
In other words, we would need a ~10% increase to add an additional 130,000 MW generating capacity. Realistically you need more than that, because I assume the EIA data is peak capacity.
To put it into perspective, we added 260,000 MW of natural gas plus another 170,000 MW in renewable generating capacity between 2000 and 2020. So the generating capacity we added in the past 20 years is 3x more than what would be required by your math. Which means it’s definitely possible.
He has no idea what any of that means but he's going to tell you it's bullshite
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:16 pm to lostinbr
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/13/21 at 8:18 pm
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:28 pm to lostinbr
quote:
So you’re talking about needing to add in the neighborhood of 3-5 generating units per state.
Solid post with some great info. I do have some questions
1. Do we not get most of our natural gas from fracking? Like 2/3rd of it? To meet the extra demand that will require a lot of new fracking. Do you think the powers that be will allow it?
2. Getting approval for new power plants, is next to impossible. Environmentalists fight new power plants with endless lawsuits. Will there be the political will from the left to allow the construction of roughly 150 to 250 new power plants nationwide?
Posted on 6/13/21 at 8:50 pm to lostinbr
quote:
The larger issue is the grid infrastructure, not power generation.
As for the fuel source, natural gas would likely account for the bulk of it.
lostinbr gets it.
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