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re: Anyone making plays tomorrow specifically for the FOMC meeting results and JPOW presser?
Posted on 3/17/21 at 2:37 pm to rocket31
Posted on 3/17/21 at 2:37 pm to rocket31
Yeah, it keeps me somewhat conservative with what I choose now. The past year has been amazing, but I'm finding myself consolidating much more to my 'conviction' stocks because of stuff like this, and just leaving it there
1
Posted on 3/17/21 at 2:48 pm to Yak
any theories why he would skip the slr extension question, ?
eta I guess they have a few weeks
eta I guess they have a few weeks
This post was edited on 3/17/21 at 2:53 pm
Posted on 3/17/21 at 2:56 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
Actually Huss predicted we do well until 3/22
Husss has a chance to be right on this one. The market is at long term resistance levels and trying to break out. It may need to get a nice correction and get a better head of steam before it can do that but who knows. Time will tell I suppose.
Posted on 3/17/21 at 3:15 pm to Zzyzx
quote:
Pop this shite already. I’ve sat out most of the year over this stupid market hype rise.
I want to buy on a fire sale like last March!
sp500 index closes with new record high
Posted on 3/17/21 at 9:14 pm to CajunTiger92
quote:
The market is at long term resistance levels
We hit an intraday ATH today. We’re not at a long term resistance level
Posted on 3/17/21 at 9:17 pm to rocket31
quote:
You know there’s something seriously wrong with the global economy when one human can make the following statement and asset prices around the world move by tens of trillions. Powell on SLR: "we'll have something to announce on that in the coming days."
That’s some pretty comical connecting of exaggerated dots. Tens of trillions? All because of the SLR answer? Come on.
Posted on 3/17/21 at 9:25 pm to slackster
well the SLR answer was given around ~1:00-1:30pm cst and equities and crypto both shot up at the same time
im not sure where preston got the "tens of trillions" number but i dont believe there was a coincidence between jpows speech and the markets pumping in unison around that time
im not sure where preston got the "tens of trillions" number but i dont believe there was a coincidence between jpows speech and the markets pumping in unison around that time
This post was edited on 3/17/21 at 9:27 pm
Posted on 3/17/21 at 10:16 pm to rocket31
quote:
well the SLR answer was given around ~1:00-1:30pm cst and equities and crypto both shot up at the same time
The markets shot up the moment the minutes were released and continued that trend during his presser. I’m not downplaying the event, but blaming it on the SLR answer is ridiculous either way. As I said earlier in this thread, many folks would argue SLR is not nearly as impactful as Reddit tries to make it sound.
All I’m saying is that the tweet is quite hyperbolic.
Posted on 3/18/21 at 3:29 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
We hit an intraday ATH today. We’re not at a long term resistance level
quote:
Nasdaq tumbles 3% as soaring yields hit tech shares, S&P 500 closes 1.5% lower
CNBC
Do you still think we were not at long term resistance levels?
Posted on 3/18/21 at 5:29 pm to CajunTiger92
I don’t think I’ve ever requested a Fark or whatever, but a “Return of the Bond Vigilante” play on Star Wars seems apropros here:
LINK
LINK
Posted on 3/18/21 at 6:23 pm to CajunTiger92
quote:
CajunTiger92
How bearish are you in the short term?
Posted on 3/18/21 at 8:07 pm to CajunTiger92
quote:
Do you still think we were not at long term resistance levels?
You think this is a technical issue when the 10 year climbs 10 basis points in a day?
Posted on 3/18/21 at 8:57 pm to JimMorrison
Not super bearish short term. Its just that after the huge run up we have had the market is due for a breather. I have raised cash and taken positions in inverse etfs. I’m still mostly in the market. The Nasdaq has sold off a lot and starting to get interesting. Perhaps we’ll just get the churn of sector rotation and no big sell off.
Posted on 3/18/21 at 9:09 pm to slackster
quote:
You think this is a technical issue when the 10 year climbs 10 basis points in a day?
Technicals are what they are. It may not be one reason that the market does what it does. Usually the CNBC talking heads will give a reason but sometimes they don’t know any more than anybody else so they just blame it on something. If it was only the 10 year then why didn’t the stock market continue selling off at the open with the 10 year peaking for the day at around 10 am?
Posted on 3/18/21 at 9:40 pm to CajunTiger92
I read today the BoA benchmark survey found managers think the 10y Treasury becomes relatively more attractive than stocks at 2.5%, and starts presenting more problems at 2.0%.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 3/19/21 at 6:19 am to RedStickBR
The market seems to have to go through this process every time. The taper tantrum from a few years ago was ridiculous. A better yield on the 10 year certainly gives more options on what to do with money but the stock market can go up with rising rates. I recall that happening in 2003-2007, I'm sure there are other examples. I think what really matters is why the rates are going up. Inflation is one thing that our country hasn't had to deal with in a long time. Guess time will tell if it will raise its ugly head.
Posted on 3/19/21 at 6:29 am to CajunTiger92
Rising rates obviously reduces growth strictly from multiple expansion. The market will have to grow the way it has mostly done since inception - rising earnings.
It’s difficult to envision a bear market without a recession to go along with it, and we don’t seem to be anywhere near a recession in the near future.
It’s difficult to envision a bear market without a recession to go along with it, and we don’t seem to be anywhere near a recession in the near future.
Posted on 3/19/21 at 6:42 am to RedStickBR
quote:
10y Treasury becomes relatively more attractive than stocks at 2.5%,
Posted on 3/19/21 at 6:51 am to CajunTiger92
quote:
A better yield on the 10 year certainly gives more options on what to do with money but the stock market can go up with rising rates. I recall that happening in 2003-2007,
Oh, it has definitely happened in the past, but we’re in a unique situation today. Many market participants have convinced themselves nosebleed valuations are justified by historically low rates. Equity yields are being bid down close to government bond yields, even though bonds are less volatile assets. Risk premiums are about the lowest ever, even while forward projected returns are remarkably low relative to history.
In effect, we’ve caused stocks to look like super long duration bonds. There will be interest rate risk, in my opinion. Either high valuations are justified by low rates (and thus become unjustified in a rising rate environment) or valuations aren’t justified to begin with. Can’t have your cake and eat it, too.
Posted on 3/19/21 at 7:04 am to slackster
quote:
It’s difficult to envision a bear market without a recession to go along with it, and we don’t seem to be anywhere near a recession in the near future.
quote:
Predictions that the bubble would burst emerged during the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s. Predictions about a future burst increased following the October 27, 1997 mini-crash, in the wake of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. This caused an uncertain economic climate during the first few months of 1998. However conditions improved, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates six times between June 1999 and May 2000 in an effort to cool the economy to achieve a soft landing. The burst of the stock market bubble occurred in the form of the NASDAQ crash in March 2000. Growth in gross domestic product slowed considerably in the third quarter of 2000 to the lowest rate since a contraction in the first quarter of 1992.[4]
The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee has determined that a peak in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in March 2001. A peak marks the end of an expansion and the beginning of a recession. The determination of a peak date in March is thus a determination that the expansion that began in March 1991 ended in March 2001 and a recession began.[5] The expansion lasted exactly 10 years, the longest in the NBER's chronology.[6] According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is the private, nonprofit, nonpartisan organization charged with determining economic recessions, the U.S. economy was in recession from March 2001 to November 2001,[5] a period of eight months at the beginning of President George W. Bush's term of office. However, economic conditions did not satisfy the common shorthand definition of recession, which is "a fall of a country's real gross domestic product in two or more successive quarters", and has led to some confusion about the procedure for determining the starting and ending dates of a recession.
2001 was effectively a case of the tail wagging the dog, in that the bubble bursting caused a recession-esque reaction. Similar thing happened in 1929.
Of course, I agree with you that recessions tend to coincide with weak stock market performance, but I do find it noteworthy that the only two examples in history of stocks being as richly valued as they are today involved the market pulling the economy down with it.
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