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Posted on 8/27/08 at 11:55 am to LASPORTSBABE
no joke it supposedly isn't even duppose to enter the Gulf unitl Saturday and it will take a day or 2 to hit the US coast....unless of course it turns back to FL......game is waaaaay on for sure.
Posted on 8/27/08 at 11:55 am to Catman88
quote:
Contraflow decision can not be made until the hurricane is 2 days out.
Says who? Wouldn't that be at the discretion of the governor? He said last night during his news conference that if it continues on this path contraflow would start Saturday - subject to change of course.
This post was edited on 8/27/08 at 11:56 am
Posted on 8/27/08 at 11:56 am to 4evrlsu
nm
This post was edited on 8/27/08 at 11:58 am
Posted on 8/27/08 at 11:57 am to LASPORTSBABE
The tracking models that are used are absolutely useless for anything over 3 days out.
I have never seen a 5 to 6 day forecast track come anywhere close to being accurate....
A drunk monkey could throw darts at the map and be just as accurate as these f##$king models.
Posted on 8/27/08 at 11:58 am to im4LSU
quote:
the are meeting today at 3 to decided the outcome of the game play
They are meeting to decide the "outcome of the game play"?
Well, shite, I hope they decide that LSU wins by a comfortable margin.
Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:00 pm to The312
quote:
They are meeting to decide the "outcome of the game play"?
Well, shite, I hope they decide that LSU wins by a comfortable margin.
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconrotflmao.gif)
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Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:00 pm to 4evrlsu
quote:
Says who? Wouldn't that be at the discretion of the governor? He said last night during his news conference that if it continues on this path contraflow would start Saturday - subject to change of course.
As I read on a another thread, and if the governor made a decision to evac too early, and sent everyone on to Houston, then the storm changed it's course and went to Houston.......well, do you see the point of waiting?
Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:04 pm to GGASU
quote:
The tracking models that are used are absolutely useless for anything over 3 days out.
This is beyond stupid. Of course they can predict. That's why there is a large CONE of probable landfall. If it enters the Gulf at all, then we are at risk. You think you can evacuate a city the size of New Orleans in 48 hours? We saw how that worked out last time. We don't need you to tell us how to manage our hurricanes, mountain man.
Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:09 pm to SouthEndzoneTiger
quote:
As I read on a another thread, and if the governor made a decision to evac too early, and sent everyone on to Houston, then the storm changed it's course and went to Houston.......well, do you see the point of waiting?
As I said, at the discretion of the governor. I don't think he will be stupid about it, just careful. There is a fine line between allowing enough time and jumping the gun. We have to trust him on this one. I would rather have him making the decisions instead of Gov. Blankstare any day.
Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:19 pm to 4evrlsu
quote:
The tracking models that are used are absolutely useless for anything over 3 days out.
quote:
You think you can evacuate a city the size of New Orleans in 48 hours?
So 3 days = 48 hours.....hopefully you do not represent the math department at LSU
Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:20 pm to GGASU
I keep hearing people debate whether or not the game will be on, and posting LSU statements regarding the game, but havent really seen any talk about this.
Gustav will not really have any weather problems for the game, but it could REALLY make Saturday traffic worse than it already is, and cause many to miss the game. Yes the hurricane may not hit until Monday, but contraflow takes action well before the anticipated hit date. There is a "three-level" system that is evacuated and it follows contraflow guidelines.
The lower level (closest to the gulf) hits the road and evacuates, if called for, 50 hours before anticipated landfall.
The middle level begins 40 hours.
The final one begins 30 hours.
So yes, we wont get rain and bad hurricane weather Saturday during the game, but this is a very real possibility. In 2005, it took some people 12 hours (I know this because my parents had to sit through it) to get from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. Just a heads up to anyone planning on leaving early Saturday morning, or maybe even late Friday night. Also, if people head up there Thursday or Friday and avoid the traffic, plan ahead because you may not be able to travel back east when the game is done.
Gustav will not really have any weather problems for the game, but it could REALLY make Saturday traffic worse than it already is, and cause many to miss the game. Yes the hurricane may not hit until Monday, but contraflow takes action well before the anticipated hit date. There is a "three-level" system that is evacuated and it follows contraflow guidelines.
The lower level (closest to the gulf) hits the road and evacuates, if called for, 50 hours before anticipated landfall.
The middle level begins 40 hours.
The final one begins 30 hours.
So yes, we wont get rain and bad hurricane weather Saturday during the game, but this is a very real possibility. In 2005, it took some people 12 hours (I know this because my parents had to sit through it) to get from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. Just a heads up to anyone planning on leaving early Saturday morning, or maybe even late Friday night. Also, if people head up there Thursday or Friday and avoid the traffic, plan ahead because you may not be able to travel back east when the game is done.
Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:22 pm to GGASU
quote:
The tracking models that are used are absolutely useless for anything over 3 days out.
thats horse shite. you take a look at the three we've already had, the week out forecasts for those were RIGHT ON TARGET
Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:27 pm to GGASU
quote:
So 3 days = 48 hours.....hopefully you do not represent the math department at LSU
okay, smartass, I was referring to the earlier person who said you can't order an evacuation earlier than two days out.
Why are you on our board talking about hurricanes anyway? Don't you have some moonshine to make?
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Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:31 pm to cenla tigah
Gee thats funny because I can garantee I know more about global ocean models than anyone here unless there are other posters from NAVOCEANO,FNMOC or FSU.. I can tell you that over 3 days out many of the models are in fact useless. Over 4 days out and its a shot in the dark. Many ensembles and model runs are put on supercomputers because weather ocean modeling is one of the hardest things to predict in science with infinte variables. But yea I would say over 3 days out is not worth looking at unless you want to scare people.
Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:31 pm to lsutgrad2007
Good info, LSUGrad07. But my concern is that we followed that evacuation model last time and it was disastrous so Jindal may be more aggressive. Still don't know that the game would be affected, though. Hope not.
Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:32 pm to 4evrlsu
quote:
okay, smartass, I was referring to the earlier person who said you can't order an evacuation earlier than two days out
More than 2 days out and you are making a mistake. Of course I wouldnt know what I was talking about..
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Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:32 pm to Catman88
Better start buying plywood and generators now. The number one reason I know this Hurricane is coming this way...I just got my house roofed last week.
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconwah.gif)
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Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:34 pm to lsutgrad2007
Ahhh thank you maybe now people will realize that NOLA wont get evacuated until at least 40 hours out now..
Posted on 8/27/08 at 12:34 pm to Catman88
quote:
Gee thats funny because I can garantee I know more about global ocean models than anyone here unless there are other posters from NAVOCEANO,FNMOC or FSU.. I can tell you that over 3 days out many of the models are in fact useless. Over 4 days out and its a shot in the dark. Many ensembles and model runs are put on supercomputers because weather ocean modeling is one of the hardest things to predict in science with infinte variables. But yea I would say over 3 days out is not worth looking at unless you want to scare people.
You can rant all you want about how smart you are and how much you know. Still doesnt change the fact that the three storms this year nailed the center of the cones that were projected a week prior to landfall. (I think thats slightly better than your drunk monkey could do)
This post was edited on 8/27/08 at 12:35 pm
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