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Started By
Message
re: Zeta - The cleanup begins
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:00 pm to Cosmo
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:00 pm to Cosmo
Man frick I hope this thing doesn't direct hit Northshore. Just let us be west. Such a fricking inconvenience I have to pack my grandmother in, her oxygen, and just finding places for her to stay until power comes back on. Maybe this will get her to finally buy a house generator I've been telling her to do.
I don't know how you live in SE LA without a generator. I have one but not a house generator and I'm not sure a window unit would be enough. I need to get a bigger generator myself. been thinking of getting a house one too and just biting the bullet on the costs.
I don't know how you live in SE LA without a generator. I have one but not a house generator and I'm not sure a window unit would be enough. I need to get a bigger generator myself. been thinking of getting a house one too and just biting the bullet on the costs.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:06 pm to deuce985
quote:
262
WTNT43 KNHC 262049
TCDAT3
Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020
The cloud pattern of Zeta became better organized today, with deep
convection forming over and around the center and some banding
features developing. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
recently found surface winds to near 70 kt over the inner
northeastern quadrant of the circulation and a central pressure of
around 981 mb, signifying that the system had become a hurricane.
Given the increased organization over very warm waters, some
additional strengthening is possible before the center crosses the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. Some weakening
should occur while Zeta interacts with land tonight and early
Tuesday. Once the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico
tomorrow, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for some
re-strengthening. When Zeta moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico
later on Wednesday, cooler shelf waters and some increase in
southwesterly shear should halt the intensification process, with
some weakening possible by the time the center reaches the northern
Gulf Coast, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane
intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is near or above the model consensus.
The hurricane continues to move on a generally northwestward track,
or at about 305/10 kt. There are basically no changes to the track
forecast reasoning, or to the forecast itself. For the next couple
of days, Zeta should move around the southwestern and western
periphery of a mid-level high pressure area centered just east of
Florida. Thereafter, a shortwave trough approaching from the west
is likely to cause the cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward to
northeastward and move over the southeastern and eastern United
States. The system should move off the northeast U.S. coast and
become an extratropical cyclone within the next 4 days. The
guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday, and the
official track forecast is very close to the corrected model
consensus, HCCA.
Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued
for a portion of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening
through early Tuesday. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected
across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and central to
western Cuba, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are
possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the
watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected
from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 19.5N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 20.5N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.1N 89.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.8N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 30.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:37 pm to rds dc
Recon back in the storm. It has really gotten it's act together today after being pretty out of sorts this morning.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:44 pm to rds dc
weather.com lowered nola winds to 27 mph for wed
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:49 pm to rds dc
Shear low now the first SW has kicked out and the ridge is building in and plenty of warm water. Figured it was just a matter of how long it took to stack up and get organized. Overnight it was apparent it was improving as the east side started putting out some hurricane force winds but the west side was anemic. Then the low level center made a run to the west ahead of the midlevel, figure the northerly shear was still doing just enough at that point.
Yeah though, this is going to be an interesting recon for sure.
Yeah though, this is going to be an interesting recon for sure.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:55 pm to Duke
You know, Duke, I was really hoping that you and the rest of the weather baws could take the rest of the year off after Delta.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 4:59 pm to Legion of Doom
quote:
I was really hoping that you and the rest of the weather baws could take the rest of the year off after Delta.
Bruh, I would be much happier just reading hot takes on the Tiger Rant.
Or at least tracking some fish storms.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:02 pm to Duke
So I know you don’t do predictions, unlike PJ. So what are your plans for you and the Duchess for this one?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:03 pm to rt3
quote:
Once the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico
tomorrow, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for some
re-strengthening. When Zeta moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico
later on Wednesday, cooler shelf waters and some increase in
southwesterly shear should halt the intensification process, with
some weakening possible by the time the center reaches the northern
Gulf Coast, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane
intensity at landfall.
This could have been copy/pasted from several Delta discussions.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:09 pm to Legion of Doom
quote:
So what are your plans for you and the Duchess for this one?
On the fence, but have a hotel room in BR on the books. Can make the call to cancel by tomorrow night. It's going to come through fast, so hopefully the power won't be as much of an issue even if it's a hurricane. Just want the safe option. At this point, I suspect we'll be getting out of NOLA Wednesday morning but you know it's an abundance of caution kind of thing.
quote:
This could have been copy/pasted from several Delta discussions.
October is still October, even if it's moved the game farther west.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 5:10 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:12 pm to Mr Perfect
27 mph - a leaf might blow across the yard just like the last dozen world is going to end NOLA "hurricanes"
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 5:15 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:13 pm to PUB
yup. but many are wishing nola takes it on the chin this time lol
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:14 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Looks the part of a strengthening Cat 1. I think there's a healthy inner core building on the east side, though recent microwave passes also back that up. Going to be a rough ride for the Yucatan...again. They've had almost as bad of a year as Louisiana with this.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:16 pm to Duke
Mexicans laugh at this
Just throw some plywood on it and move on
Just throw some plywood on it and move on
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:17 pm to Duke
I really hope we have another 15 year gap before another season like this
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:33 pm to Duke
quote:
Looks the part of a strengthening Cat 1.
Definitely some tall cloud tops in that frame.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:35 pm to LegendInMyMind
Got that shrimp shape, big band out of the south rolling up to the core. Good thing this is going to run out of time.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 5:47 pm to Duke
Morgerman is back down there again chasing.
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