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Started By
Message
Primary model gives Trump 91% chance of winning
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:18 am
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:18 am
Primary model
quote:
The PRIMARY MODEL gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter. In 2016, when polls, pundits and forecasters were all predicting a certain victory for Hillary Clinton, the PRIMARY MODEL was practically alone in predicting Donald Trump’s victory. It did so as early as March 7 that year, putting his chance of winning at 87%. LINK It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and, in addition, on an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election. This year the model has been calibrated to predict the Electoral College vote.
This post was edited on 10/9/20 at 7:19 am
10
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:20 am to Robin Masters
If a model is more accurate than a poll - I'm all in.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:22 am to Robin Masters
This is the same garbage model as posted in a multiple page thread still on the first page of the board. It's a joke. It has Trump winning NY but losing NH. Ridiculous.
This post was edited on 10/9/20 at 7:23 am
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:23 am to Jake88
That’s ridiculous, but Biden winning Texas and GA is realistic?
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:24 am to LSU Patrick
No. Where did I say that?
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:25 am to Robin Masters
Sure. Because nothing has changed since March 2nd.
Sorry but Trump is going to lose. Bigly.
Sorry but Trump is going to lose. Bigly.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:28 am to Rasputin
quote:
Rasputin
Member since May 2020
4 posts
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:28 am to Rasputin
quote:
Sure. Because nothing has changed since March 2nd.
Sorry but Trump is going to lose. Bigly.
Gallup says 56% of people think they are better off than they were 4 years ago. That is this week. That is an incredibly high number. frick you 4 post bot.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:29 am to Rasputin
quote:
Because nothing has changed since March 2nd.
Yeah that date throws out this model entirely.
I could see Trump winning very easily over Biden pre-covid.
Things done changed though.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:31 am to Robin Masters
But, but CNN, Yahoo and MSNBC have Biden winning in a landslide. He can do no wrong and Orange man Bad!!
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:33 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
Yeah that date throws out this model entirely.
I could see Trump winning very easily over Biden pre-covid.
Things done changed though.
Wrong. If you read his website the map is based on certain factors related to the results of turnout in both parties primaries. Nothing between then and now changes the turnout that already happened.
LINK
This post was edited on 10/9/20 at 7:34 am
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:33 am to StringedInstruments
The only thing COVID did for Trump is make swing voters vote for him because they realize how shady and underhanded the Democrats are.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:38 am to LSU Patrick
quote:
That’s ridiculous, but Biden winning Texas and GA is realistic
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:39 am to Rasputin
quote:
Sure. Because nothing has changed since March 2nd.
Sorry but Trump is going to lose. Bigly.
So Brave to use and Alter
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:40 am to carhartt
It’s gonna be amazing at how the riots and the rona are gonna backfire on the dems. And they won’t even acknowledge it.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:51 am to gthog61
Not a bot. Just haven't spent every waking moment posting on on here.
Gallup also consistently has the President underwater on approval rating. So even if a voter feels they are better off, they are not giving the President credit for it. And at this point, there are very few undecided voters versus 2016. I just don't see where the President's votes are going to come from. Of course folks will just say the polls are wrong like they were in 2016. But the President really benefited in 2016 from lots of undecided voters breaking his way just before the election. Don't see that happening this time around.
Gallup also consistently has the President underwater on approval rating. So even if a voter feels they are better off, they are not giving the President credit for it. And at this point, there are very few undecided voters versus 2016. I just don't see where the President's votes are going to come from. Of course folks will just say the polls are wrong like they were in 2016. But the President really benefited in 2016 from lots of undecided voters breaking his way just before the election. Don't see that happening this time around.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:56 am to Rasputin
quote:
Gallup also consistently has the President underwater on approval rating. So even if a voter feels they are better off, they are not giving the President credit for it. And at this point, there are very few undecided voters versus 2016. I just don't see where the President's votes are going to come from. Of course folks will just say the polls are wrong like they were in 2016. But the President really benefited in 2016 from lots of undecided voters breaking his way just before the election. Don't see that happening this time around.
lol. muh polls tell me Biden will win so he will win.
I haven't done any research on the amount of new registered reps in the states. I only listen to what CNN tells me.
TRUST ME!
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:56 am to Rasputin
quote:
Not a bot. Just haven't spent every waking moment posting on on here.
Um, you have 5 posts, no one is accusing you of posting a lot.....
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:58 am to Rasputin
quote:All the areas in the various battleground states that media pollsters dont reach in their polling, like north central PA.
I just don't see where the President's votes are going to come from.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 7:59 am to DMAN1968
quote:
Rasputin
Member since May 2020
4 posts
Team Biden just paid him $1.75 to post that post so who is laughing now!
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