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"TRUE" State of the Race based on Trump / Biden campaign events
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:05 pm
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:05 pm
We all see the "electoral maps" of Larry Sabato, RealClearPolitics, Nate Silver, and the MSM outlets.
They seem off to me. We've not seen Biden spend any time or effort in many "red" or "pink" states whereas Trump is hammering purple, "baby blue" and "blue" states like MN, WI, and Virginia. I'd rather be in Trump's shoes than Biden's and that's before we even start to address the macro issues like economy, COVID improvement, and energy / enthusiasm.
Going by their schedules, this is the true state of the race:
Likely Trump (4% lead or greater): Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, Texas
Lean Trump (1.5% to 4% lead): Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, ME2, NE1
Toss Ups (within 1.5% either way): Pennsylvania
Lean Biden (1.5% to 4% lead): Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada
Likely Biden (4% or greater lead): Virginia, Maine, Colorado, New Mexico
They seem off to me. We've not seen Biden spend any time or effort in many "red" or "pink" states whereas Trump is hammering purple, "baby blue" and "blue" states like MN, WI, and Virginia. I'd rather be in Trump's shoes than Biden's and that's before we even start to address the macro issues like economy, COVID improvement, and energy / enthusiasm.
Going by their schedules, this is the true state of the race:
Likely Trump (4% lead or greater): Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, Texas
Lean Trump (1.5% to 4% lead): Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, ME2, NE1
Toss Ups (within 1.5% either way): Pennsylvania
Lean Biden (1.5% to 4% lead): Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada
Likely Biden (4% or greater lead): Virginia, Maine, Colorado, New Mexico
This post was edited on 9/24/20 at 6:33 pm
11
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:09 pm to SirWinston
Agree! I’d put NH as a toss up
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:10 pm to SirWinston
What Biden campaign events?
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:11 pm to SirWinston
Michigan and Penn are the states where the democrats union influence makes it appear that the dems have traction. I think it's all bullshite and Trump will carry them in a big way. The union leadership are retarded (crooked) ideologues but the union members know they are full of shite.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:12 pm to Eat Your Crow
Point taken but I think he's physically been in FL, WI, MN, and PA in the past week.
And just to be clear, this isn't my prediction or FINAL electoral map. This is just where I feel things might be right this second. I definitely feel that things are trending in our direction in a very strong way.
And just to be clear, this isn't my prediction or FINAL electoral map. This is just where I feel things might be right this second. I definitely feel that things are trending in our direction in a very strong way.
This post was edited on 9/24/20 at 6:13 pm
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:13 pm to SirWinston
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:13 pm to SirWinston
This is the most spot on take and most likely map.
Poster that's saying NH is just fooling themselves. It's a shite ton of college educated white suburbanites. That vote just isn't coming to Trump this time.
It will come down to PA.
Poster that's saying NH is just fooling themselves. It's a shite ton of college educated white suburbanites. That vote just isn't coming to Trump this time.
It will come down to PA.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:16 pm to SirWinston
quote:
And just to be clear, this isn't my prediction or FINAL electoral map. This is just where I feel things might be right this second. I definitely feel that things are trending in our direction in a very strong way.
I see him winning Florida by more than AZ and NC which is crazy haha. But it will come down to WI, MI, MN, or PA.
All trump needs is one of those if he wins second congressional district in Maine which he will comfortably.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:18 pm to SirWinston
Trump is ahead in Wisconsin right now. That's all.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:20 pm to Magician2
quote:
That vote just isn't coming to Trump this time.
I don’t know. Trump almost won in 2016. I think this was his closest loss but might be wrong on that
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:22 pm to Magician2
quote:
This is the most spot on take and most likely map.
Poster that's saying NH is just fooling themselves. It's a shite ton of college educated white suburbanites. That vote just isn't coming to Trump this time.
It will come down to PA.
I disagree with literally everything you just said.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:23 pm to SirWinston
I believe this analysis is spot on. Trump's rally schedule and spending indicate where he sees opportunities. The burden is on the challenger to try and erode the incumbent's ground game and funding advantages and Sleepy Joe seems to be squandering that. He is uncompetitive in states like GA & TX that the media is salivating over, and Trump is hammering Sleepy Joe in former Democratic strongholds and now seems to see an opportunity in VA as well. I am supremely confident in Trump's prospects.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:24 pm to SirWinston
This is where we stand right now
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:32 pm to Magician2
quote:.
Poster that's saying NH is just fooling themselves.
348,521 - Hillary
345,789 - Trump
Roughly 38k in other candidates.
What the frick are you talking about?
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:33 pm to TakingStock
Remember too that Biden literally ZERO boots on the ground, ZERO face to face voter outreach.
Trump has the macro issues moving in his direction, he has the momentum, he has the energy and rallies, and he has the ground game. All Biden has is MSM narrative and cash to burn on advertisements.
Trump has the macro issues moving in his direction, he has the momentum, he has the energy and rallies, and he has the ground game. All Biden has is MSM narrative and cash to burn on advertisements.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:35 pm to SirWinston
If Biden was actually winning big he’d be in Texas, Georgia, and Arizona. The fact he’s spending all his time in the Rust Belt means he’s trying to squeak out a win by picking those off.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:36 pm to SirWinston
"going by their schedules"? What does that metric even mean and how are you assigning numbers to them?
I don't think Biden has a shot at Texas or Florida or Ohio, really. But I don't know how AZ is a "Lean Trump" right now comparatively.
I don't think Biden has a shot at Texas or Florida or Ohio, really. But I don't know how AZ is a "Lean Trump" right now comparatively.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:38 pm to SirWinston
I think you nailed it here. It’s gonna be very close and likely come down to a tight race in PA in my opinion.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:38 pm to RazorOye
You can tell what the state of the race is by where they’re campaigning. I knew Hillary was frickED when she held her last rally in Philadelphia. Meanwhile Trump held his last rally in Michigan.
Those didn’t pass the sniff test of a Hillary blowout.
Those didn’t pass the sniff test of a Hillary blowout.
Posted on 9/24/20 at 6:39 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
I don’t know. Trump almost won in 2016. I think this was his closest loss but might be wrong on that
You're pretty level headed on here I just don't see how anyone thinks he'll still do well in the suburbs and I'm not saying hes going to lose but I actually have been screaming he is legitamely going to get 35% of the Hispanic vote since last year. He will best his 27% from 2016. AA is much harder to gauge because blacks don't break ever but even if he gets 10% from his 8% in 2016 that's still huge trouble for Biden.
But the white suburban woman thing is real and this board dismissing it is ridiculous. But I've said his gains from minority could offset that
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