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re: CBS News/YouGov Poll Showing Close Presidential Race in Texas Oversampled Democrats
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:35 am to Frank Black
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:35 am to Frank Black
quote:
The Cook Partisan Voter Index for the state of Texas, however, is Republican +8, which means the sample of 1,140 likely voters in the CBS/YouGov poll oversampled Democrats by a whopping nine percent.
That's not how that works. Lousiana is R+11 on the Cook index but there's way more registered Dems in Lousiana than Republicans.
The real answer is to go look at the 2016 data and see what the D/R/I split was.
3
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:48 am to The Boat
quote:
That's not how that works. Lousiana is R+11 on the Cook index but there's way more registered Dems in Lousiana than Republicans.
The real answer is to go look at the 2016 data and see what the D/R/I split was.
This
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:53 am to The Boat
quote:
That's not how that works. Lousiana is R+11 on the Cook index but there's way more registered Dems in Lousiana than Republicans.
The real answer is to go look at the 2016 data and see what the D/R/I split was.
Surprisingly it was 29D, 38R, and 33I so +9R. 2018 Texas Senate was 34D 38R, 27I. It's absurd to think that the electorate in Texas this year will be D+1.
Posted on 9/23/20 at 12:10 pm to The Boat
Texas doesn't require party affiliation to vote in a primary. So the only way to guess party affiliation is the Cook Index.
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