SC Pick Prediction: Put up or shutup

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He should pick Bill Pryor but I think he goes with the Cuban lady.

I am ready for a hardliner (someone to the right of Pinochet or Genghis Kahn), I am tired of these Bush type picks.

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100% Agree!

Bill Pryor is the right pick, but politics will force him to pick a woman.

Conventional wisdom says Barrett or Lagoa (for the FL Cubans) but I live in FL and believe it is safely in the Trump column - I would appoint Rushing and try to solidify NC.

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He should pick Amy Coney Barrett and that’s the consensus, but I think he picks the Cuban Lady bc Florida

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I think doing so would be a BIG mistake in exchange for a potential short term gain that may or may not even be necessary.

The "pros" for chosing Lagoa are: 1. She is Cuban and from Florida, which could help secure a critical swing state; 2. she was easily confirmed to the 11th Circuit just last year (80-15). Thus, for the D's to "block" her would require a complete about-face for OBVIOUS political reasons.

The cons are that I don't think she is a trustworthy as Barrett if the goal is to put in a strict originalist. She was first appointed to the bench by Jeb. Anything with the Bush "stink" on it is cause for concern (no vulgar pun intended). Plus, her FIL is a Clinton appointed US Dist. Judge.

Barrett was a Scalia clerk. Her confirmation to the 7th Circuit in 2017 was much more contentious (only 3 D's voted to confirm her). Thus, it would seem to be much harder to get her confirmed (Perhaps that in and of itself is very telling).

While lawyers and political wonks care about the USSC, the average voter doesn't. There is no guarantee Lagoa's appointment would shore up Florida. Conversely, there is no guarantee passing her over would "lose" Florida. But the wrong choice on the USSC could be a "lifetime" mistake. We are already seeing that with Roberts.

To me, the choice here is a complete no-brainer. You go with Barrett. Make the Dems trash a woman leading up to the election. The Kavanaugh fiasco was a great campaigning episode in favor of Trump. Now let's have another RIGHT before the election. Plus, if Barrett is confirmed, even if Trump loses, you still have secured the Court.

The fact that Senate Democrats didn't put up much of a fight to confirm Lagoa should tell you EVERYTHING you need to know

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The fact that Senate Democrats didn't put up much of a fight to confirm Lagoa should tell you EVERYTHING you need to know

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This.

All the Democrats will vote no for either of them at this point and Collins/Murkowski flippity floppy decision is going to be the same regardless of who it is.

So you dont compromise

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Are people really going to vote based on a SCOTUS nominee from their state.

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They don’t. People just latch to stupid things. It should be ACB.

Again.. NOTHING from a BUSH Appointee married to a Clinton family.


You people can not be serious to think this is smart. FL is not in play for the DEMS

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Are people really going to vote based on a SCOTUS nominee from their state.

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Cubans in South Florida would. Having a Supreme Court justice would be a point of pride for them. And there are well over 1 million Cubans in South Florida. That's a huge demographic bloc in a swing state.

That's why Gore lost in 2000. The Elain Gonzalez / Janet Reno fiasco sent the South Florida Cubans into a rage and they showed up in huge numbers to vote for Bush.

It's hard to imagine Trump losing Florida but winning the general. He would have to do really well in the Rust Belt.

Cuban lady because of Florida and the Hispanic vote

Barrett is already a lightning rod because of her conservative Catholic faith and positions on Roe v Wade and it would ugly (uglier) real quick

Lagoa would bring out the Cuban vote. Hard to find a more successful immigrant group and one that appreciates this country more.

I'd be fine with Barrett too, but I think he goes with Lagoa. It shores up Florida, she was recently confirmed , and you have the prospect of making Harris go after a Hispanic lady during the hearings. It's one thing for her to trash a white preppie, another to go after a Hispanic lady.

The hearings take her off the campaign trail and put her on TV. It's much easier for her score points by attacking Barrett on her religious views.