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Message
SC Pick Prediction: Put up or shutup
Posted on 9/20/20 at 9:51 am
Posted on 9/20/20 at 9:51 am
He should pick Bill Pryor but I think he goes with the Cuban lady.
I am ready for a hardliner (someone to the right of Pinochet or Genghis Kahn), I am tired of these Bush type picks.
I am ready for a hardliner (someone to the right of Pinochet or Genghis Kahn), I am tired of these Bush type picks.
This post was edited on 9/20/20 at 9:52 am
13
Posted on 9/20/20 at 9:56 am to AU86
He should pick Amy Coney Barrett and that’s the consensus, but I think he picks the Cuban Lady bc Florida
Posted on 9/20/20 at 9:56 am to AU86
quote:
He should pick Bill Pryor but I think he goes with the Cuban lady.
I am ready for a hardliner (someone to the right of Pinochet or Genghis Kahn), I am tired of these Bush type picks.
100% Agree!
Bill Pryor is the right pick, but politics will force him to pick a woman.
Posted on 9/20/20 at 10:01 am to AU86
I’m ok with any of those 3.
He will pick the one he thinks the senate will have the least issues confirming (though they SHOULD have no issue with any of them).
That will probably be Lagoa
The left will come after Barrett over religion and abortion, Pryor will be crucified just because he’s a guy and might have had a few beers and kissed a girl in college.
Lagoa was previously confirmed 85-15 or something so it will be hard to argue that she shouldn’t be confirmed again.
He will pick the one he thinks the senate will have the least issues confirming (though they SHOULD have no issue with any of them).
That will probably be Lagoa
The left will come after Barrett over religion and abortion, Pryor will be crucified just because he’s a guy and might have had a few beers and kissed a girl in college.
Lagoa was previously confirmed 85-15 or something so it will be hard to argue that she shouldn’t be confirmed again.
This post was edited on 9/20/20 at 10:06 am
Posted on 9/20/20 at 10:13 am to AU86
Conventional wisdom says Barrett or Lagoa (for the FL Cubans) but I live in FL and believe it is safely in the Trump column - I would appoint Rushing and try to solidify NC.
Posted on 9/20/20 at 10:20 am to roadkill
-He picks Lagoa and confirmation will be before the election. Zero democrats will vote for anyone he picks so frick them. He's doing it for the election to shore up Florida, Hispanics and woman.
-He gets re-elected
-Senate stays with GOP
-House stays with Democrats.
-Next impeachment begins by March. I would predict at least two impeachments with zero convictions during his second term.
-Next open seat on the SCOTUS goes directly to Barrett.
-He gets re-elected
-Senate stays with GOP
-House stays with Democrats.
-Next impeachment begins by March. I would predict at least two impeachments with zero convictions during his second term.
-Next open seat on the SCOTUS goes directly to Barrett.
This post was edited on 9/20/20 at 10:22 am
Posted on 9/20/20 at 11:01 am to Wednesday
quote:
He should pick Amy Coney Barrett and that’s the consensus, but I think he picks the Cuban Lady bc Florida
I think doing so would be a BIG mistake in exchange for a potential short term gain that may or may not even be necessary.
The "pros" for chosing Lagoa are: 1. She is Cuban and from Florida, which could help secure a critical swing state; 2. she was easily confirmed to the 11th Circuit just last year (80-15). Thus, for the D's to "block" her would require a complete about-face for OBVIOUS political reasons.
The cons are that I don't think she is a trustworthy as Barrett if the goal is to put in a strict originalist. She was first appointed to the bench by Jeb. Anything with the Bush "stink" on it is cause for concern (no vulgar pun intended). Plus, her FIL is a Clinton appointed US Dist. Judge.
Barrett was a Scalia clerk. Her confirmation to the 7th Circuit in 2017 was much more contentious (only 3 D's voted to confirm her). Thus, it would seem to be much harder to get her confirmed (Perhaps that in and of itself is very telling).
While lawyers and political wonks care about the USSC, the average voter doesn't. There is no guarantee Lagoa's appointment would shore up Florida. Conversely, there is no guarantee passing her over would "lose" Florida. But the wrong choice on the USSC could be a "lifetime" mistake. We are already seeing that with Roberts.
To me, the choice here is a complete no-brainer. You go with Barrett. Make the Dems trash a woman leading up to the election. The Kavanaugh fiasco was a great campaigning episode in favor of Trump. Now let's have another RIGHT before the election. Plus, if Barrett is confirmed, even if Trump loses, you still have secured the Court.
The fact that Senate Democrats didn't put up much of a fight to confirm Lagoa should tell you EVERYTHING you need to know
Posted on 9/20/20 at 11:05 am to AU86
Pryor is awesome but he’s almost 60, too old.
Posted on 9/20/20 at 11:05 am to Alt26
quote:
The fact that Senate Democrats didn't put up much of a fight to confirm Lagoa should tell you EVERYTHING you need to know
This.
All the Democrats will vote no for either of them at this point and Collins/Murkowski flippity floppy decision is going to be the same regardless of who it is.
So you dont compromise
Posted on 9/20/20 at 11:09 am to Wednesday
quote:
but I think he picks the Cuban Lady bc Florida
Does this really matter?
Are people really going to vote based on a SCOTUS nominee from their state.
People care about the court but I don’t think they care where the nominee is from
Posted on 9/20/20 at 11:09 am to AU86
quote:
He should pick Bill Pryor but I think he goes with the Cuban lady.
or, alternatively, he will pick Barbara Lagoa but I think he should pick the White dude.
Posted on 9/20/20 at 11:11 am to memphis tiger
quote:
Are people really going to vote based on a SCOTUS nominee from their state.
They don’t. People just latch to stupid things. It should be ACB.
Posted on 9/20/20 at 11:18 am to AU86
He can appoint Bill Pryor next term.
Posted on 9/20/20 at 11:23 am to AU86
Again.. NOTHING from a BUSH Appointee married to a Clinton family.
You people can not be serious to think this is smart. FL is not in play for the DEMS
You people can not be serious to think this is smart. FL is not in play for the DEMS
Posted on 9/20/20 at 11:26 am to AU86
It better be ACB.
I think it would cause a bigger melt and the hearings will be great.
I think it would cause a bigger melt and the hearings will be great.
Posted on 9/20/20 at 11:30 am to memphis tiger
quote:
Are people really going to vote based on a SCOTUS nominee from their state.
Cubans in South Florida would. Having a Supreme Court justice would be a point of pride for them. And there are well over 1 million Cubans in South Florida. That's a huge demographic bloc in a swing state.
That's why Gore lost in 2000. The Elain Gonzalez / Janet Reno fiasco sent the South Florida Cubans into a rage and they showed up in huge numbers to vote for Bush.
It's hard to imagine Trump losing Florida but winning the general. He would have to do really well in the Rust Belt.
Posted on 9/20/20 at 11:35 am to roadkill
quote:
Conventional wisdom says Barrett or Lagoa (for the FL Cubans) but I live in FL and believe it is safely in the Trump column - I would appoint Rushing and try to solidify NC.
Florida is not safely w/ Trump...no one is a “safe win” for Florida- in the last 6 Presidential elections there has been over 40M votes with a 85k vote spread - Lagoa will help Trump shore up cuban/Hispanic votes...he needs all the help he can get
Posted on 9/20/20 at 11:35 am to AU86
Cuban lady because of Florida and the Hispanic vote
Barrett is already a lightning rod because of her conservative Catholic faith and positions on Roe v Wade and it would ugly (uglier) real quick
Barrett is already a lightning rod because of her conservative Catholic faith and positions on Roe v Wade and it would ugly (uglier) real quick
This post was edited on 9/20/20 at 11:38 am
Posted on 9/20/20 at 12:00 pm to Hamma1122
Lagoa would bring out the Cuban vote. Hard to find a more successful immigrant group and one that appreciates this country more.
I'd be fine with Barrett too, but I think he goes with Lagoa. It shores up Florida, she was recently confirmed , and you have the prospect of making Harris go after a Hispanic lady during the hearings. It's one thing for her to trash a white preppie, another to go after a Hispanic lady.
The hearings take her off the campaign trail and put her on TV. It's much easier for her score points by attacking Barrett on her religious views.
I'd be fine with Barrett too, but I think he goes with Lagoa. It shores up Florida, she was recently confirmed , and you have the prospect of making Harris go after a Hispanic lady during the hearings. It's one thing for her to trash a white preppie, another to go after a Hispanic lady.
The hearings take her off the campaign trail and put her on TV. It's much easier for her score points by attacking Barrett on her religious views.
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