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Proof that the polls are not accurate
Posted on 9/18/20 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 9/18/20 at 1:58 pm
Watch where the candidates are campaigning.
In 2016, Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%. Now the polls are showing Biden up 6% on Trump (current RCP Average). It's easy to know with certainty that Biden does not truly lead by 6 points by watching where he's campaigning.
If he was truly up 6 points, he'd be looking to expand the map... He'd be campaigning in Georgia, Texas, Ohio, etc. But that's not what he's doing. And that's not where Trump is spending his time either.
According to the Chicago Tribune's tracker of campaign stops, here is where Biden has campaigned so far this month:
3- Wisconsin
3- Pennsylvania
2- Michigan
2- Florida
Zero stops in Ohio, Texas, or Georgia.... and also notably zero stops in Arizona or North Carolina which were narrow Trump victories in '16.
Let's look at where Kamala Harris is campaigning:
2- Wisconsin
1- Pennsylvania
1- Nevada
1- Florida
So again, she's focusing on the major battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida.... but also she's having to go and try to protect Nevada, a state won by Hillary in '16 by 2.4%.
If Biden was truly up by 6%, he and Harris wouldn't be having to waste their time in Nevada, nor would they be having to worry about states like Michigan and Wisconsin. They'd at the very least be focusing on North Carolina, Arizona, and/or Ohio but yet neither has had one event in those states this month.
Now let's check on where Trump has campaigned:
3- Nevada
2- Pennsylvania
2- Wisconsin
1- Michigan
1- Florida
1- Arizona
So Trump has visited Nevada more than any other state this month... a state he lost in '16. So he's the one who's actually spending the most capital trying to expand the map.
No stops in North Carolina, and obviously none in Ohio, Georgia, or Texas.
If you study where they are spending time and resources, this is not a Biden +6 race, not even close.
I think watching where the candidates campaign is the best way to track how close this race really is. If Trump suddenly starts campaigning in Ohio or Georgia, that's not at all a good sign. Likewise if Biden starts showing up in those states, it's also not a good sign.
On the flipside, if Trump keeps heading to Nevada, that's not a good sign for Biden. If he shows up in Minnesota or New Hampshire, then you know he's feeling good about where he stands.
This is a very close race. So far, with the exception of Trump's 3 trips to Nevada, the campaign stops have stayed away from states out on the fringes.
The real battlegrounds appear to be these:
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
These are states won by Trump in 2016 by 0.72%, 0.77%, and 1.20%, respectively.
For these 3 states to be by far the biggest focus for the campaigns, that tells me this election will again be decided by 2-3 points max. Biden may win, but he's not expecting on an Obama type victory that included NC, OH, etc.
In 2016, Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%. Now the polls are showing Biden up 6% on Trump (current RCP Average). It's easy to know with certainty that Biden does not truly lead by 6 points by watching where he's campaigning.
If he was truly up 6 points, he'd be looking to expand the map... He'd be campaigning in Georgia, Texas, Ohio, etc. But that's not what he's doing. And that's not where Trump is spending his time either.
According to the Chicago Tribune's tracker of campaign stops, here is where Biden has campaigned so far this month:
3- Wisconsin
3- Pennsylvania
2- Michigan
2- Florida
Zero stops in Ohio, Texas, or Georgia.... and also notably zero stops in Arizona or North Carolina which were narrow Trump victories in '16.
Let's look at where Kamala Harris is campaigning:
2- Wisconsin
1- Pennsylvania
1- Nevada
1- Florida
So again, she's focusing on the major battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida.... but also she's having to go and try to protect Nevada, a state won by Hillary in '16 by 2.4%.
If Biden was truly up by 6%, he and Harris wouldn't be having to waste their time in Nevada, nor would they be having to worry about states like Michigan and Wisconsin. They'd at the very least be focusing on North Carolina, Arizona, and/or Ohio but yet neither has had one event in those states this month.
Now let's check on where Trump has campaigned:
3- Nevada
2- Pennsylvania
2- Wisconsin
1- Michigan
1- Florida
1- Arizona
So Trump has visited Nevada more than any other state this month... a state he lost in '16. So he's the one who's actually spending the most capital trying to expand the map.
No stops in North Carolina, and obviously none in Ohio, Georgia, or Texas.
If you study where they are spending time and resources, this is not a Biden +6 race, not even close.
I think watching where the candidates campaign is the best way to track how close this race really is. If Trump suddenly starts campaigning in Ohio or Georgia, that's not at all a good sign. Likewise if Biden starts showing up in those states, it's also not a good sign.
On the flipside, if Trump keeps heading to Nevada, that's not a good sign for Biden. If he shows up in Minnesota or New Hampshire, then you know he's feeling good about where he stands.
This is a very close race. So far, with the exception of Trump's 3 trips to Nevada, the campaign stops have stayed away from states out on the fringes.
The real battlegrounds appear to be these:
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
These are states won by Trump in 2016 by 0.72%, 0.77%, and 1.20%, respectively.
For these 3 states to be by far the biggest focus for the campaigns, that tells me this election will again be decided by 2-3 points max. Biden may win, but he's not expecting on an Obama type victory that included NC, OH, etc.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:00 pm to BHMKyle
Biden doesn’t need to win Georgia. It’s the silliness of the winning the popular vote as if it matters Biden’s team is ignoring. It’s a smart strategy.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:00 pm to BHMKyle
Rasmussen was dead on last time, no re4ason to assume they won't be this time.
Earlier in the week they had Trump +1.
He won last time from -2 (exactly what Ramussen had).
If he is +1 including CA and NY it will be a blowout.
Earlier in the week they had Trump +1.
He won last time from -2 (exactly what Ramussen had).
If he is +1 including CA and NY it will be a blowout.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:00 pm to BHMKyle
Uh huh. I fell for this crap in 2012. Not again.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:01 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
If he was truly up 6 points, he'd be looking to expand the map... He'd be campaigning in Georgia, Texas, Ohio
this election is gonna come down to about ~100k voters in battleground states
The states you mentioned are going red. Waste of resources to campaign there.
It'd be foolish not to dump all the energy into PA/WI/MI/AZ/MN/FL
He could be up by 3 points in the national vote, win it by that margin, and still lose the presidency.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:01 pm to BHMKyle
So I guess Minnesota is out for MAGA?
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:01 pm to BHMKyle
I think Florida is firmly for Trump at this point... he's just making a few visits to keep support shored up. The trip Biden took was a DISASTER given his comments to Univision comparing Trump to Castro and some other things I imagine the Latinos in Florida did not appreciate.
MI, PA, WI, MN, and NV will all be decided by less than 2% either way.
MI, PA, WI, MN, and NV will all be decided by less than 2% either way.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:02 pm to BHMKyle
You left off Minnesota
This post was edited on 9/18/20 at 3:45 pm
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:03 pm to Covingtontiger77
DO tell us how Trump can visit ALL the important states EVERY week.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:05 pm to prplhze2000
quote:
Uh huh. I fell for this crap in 2012. Not again.
What are you getting at? 2012?
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:06 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
So Trump has visited Nevada more than any other state this month... a state he lost in '16. So he's the one who's actually spending the most capital trying to expand the map.
No stops in North Carolina, and obviously none in Ohio, Georgia, or Texas.
If you study where they are spending time and resources, this is not a Biden +6 race, not even close.
I think watching where the candidates campaign is the best way to track how close this race really is. If Trump suddenly starts campaigning in Ohio or Georgia, that's not at all a good sign. Likewise if Biden starts showing up in those states, it's also not a good sign.
Your post unfortunately was very premature.
Trump is literally doing 2 rallies in Ohio on Monday and he's doing a rally tomorrow in N.C. he also had a rally last week in N.C.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:07 pm to gthog61
Orange can do it ALL!!
Considering WI shares a border with MN perhaps a visit or two or three can be done with relative ease.
Presuming that the OP’s opinion that both candidates are showing up in states where the races are close, MAGA not going to MN would tend to show he’s way out ahead there or dead in the water and it’s fools gold to spend time and $ there.
Considering WI shares a border with MN perhaps a visit or two or three can be done with relative ease.
Presuming that the OP’s opinion that both candidates are showing up in states where the races are close, MAGA not going to MN would tend to show he’s way out ahead there or dead in the water and it’s fools gold to spend time and $ there.
This post was edited on 9/18/20 at 2:08 pm
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:08 pm to BHMKyle
I really like the fact you pointed out that it is Trump working on expanding the map, not Biden. One is in protection mode, the other being the aggressor.
Im not certain that +6 isn’t completely off, but that’s assuming perfect outcomes from Biden- high turnout and motivation/ excitement. I just personally think it’s crazy that Biden gets perfection.
Not only that, but even if perfection does happen for Biden that +6 (US average) will come from states that don’t matter. I’d gladly give up a +20 Biden in Oregon to have a +1 Trump in Nevada, or a +20 Biden in California to have a +1 Trump in Minnesota.
Trump will lose by a lot in states that lean heavily liberal, probably moreso than in 2016, but I don’t think it matters.
Im not certain that +6 isn’t completely off, but that’s assuming perfect outcomes from Biden- high turnout and motivation/ excitement. I just personally think it’s crazy that Biden gets perfection.
Not only that, but even if perfection does happen for Biden that +6 (US average) will come from states that don’t matter. I’d gladly give up a +20 Biden in Oregon to have a +1 Trump in Nevada, or a +20 Biden in California to have a +1 Trump in Minnesota.
Trump will lose by a lot in states that lean heavily liberal, probably moreso than in 2016, but I don’t think it matters.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:14 pm to BHMKyle
I think it’s just their strategy and not really indicative of internal polls. The Biden strategy seems to be win every state Hillary did and flip WI, MI, and PA back blue. Hillary’s campaign was roundly criticized for not even trying to win those states, lost each by close margins. Trumps strategy is wisely to try and hold onto to them. Needs to hold onto at least one to have a shot, flipping a NV helps so that’s why campaign there.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:15 pm to BHMKyle
It matters not. The Dems will cheat and steal this election with mail in voter fraud and ballot harvesting. They won’t do it nationwide, but will do it in certain swing districts in all of the swing states. They will also use this to take the senate and shore up more votes in the house. Book it!
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:19 pm to C
quote:
Biden doesn’t need to win Georgia. It’s the silliness of the winning the popular vote as if it matters Biden’s team is ignoring.
No the popular vote doesn't matter. But the popular vote also is a good indicator of where states will fall.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida always follow the popular vote pretty closely. Michigan historically leans a bit to the left while Florida leans a bit to the right. But typically those states are going to be within a few percentage points of where the national popular vote ends up.
If Biden were truly up 6 points, states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would be solidly in the Dem column.
Every presidential election since 2000 has been decided by 3.86% or closer with the exception of Obama's win in 2008 where he won by 7.27%. That 7.27% win was so massive, he carried states like Indiana and Missouri. Obama won an electoral landslide of 365-173. That's what a 7% popular vote produces.
Now polls show Biden up by 6-8%. Again, if that were true he'd be looking at a similar electoral landslide. He wouldn't be spending all his time in Wiconsin and Pennsylvania and sending Kamala to go try to protect Nevada.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:20 pm to grantbw
quote:
I think it’s just their strategy and not really indicative of internal polls. The Biden strategy seems to be win every state Hillary did and flip WI, MI, and PA back blue. Hillary’s campaign was roundly criticized for not even trying to win those states, lost each by close margins. Trumps strategy is wisely to try and hold onto to them. Needs to hold onto at least one to have a shot, flipping a NV helps so that’s why campaign there.
Right.
The national polling is kind of just window dressing in an lot of ways.
Biden has to win most of those states that Trump won by small margins in 2016. That's really all that matters now.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:20 pm to gthog61
quote:
Rasmussen was dead on last time, no re4ason to assume they won't be this time.
Rasmussen was dead on 2008... and they were WAYYYY OFF in 2012. Rasumussen made it look like Mitt Romney actually had a good chance to unseating Obama. Of course he fell way short.
Rasmussen was again excellent in 2016. For 2020, who knows? Rasumussen seems to be either dead on or way, way off.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:21 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Now polls show Biden up by 6-8%. Again, if that were true he'd be looking at a similar electoral landslide. He wouldn't be spending all his time in Wiconsin and Pennsylvania and sending Kamala to go try to protect Nevada.
The Dems just suffered their most embarrassing defeat ever 4 years ago by using this logic, though. They aren't making that mistake again.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 2:23 pm to BHMKyle
You can't read too much into this. Early voting starting at different points in time has a lot to do with who visits what state when. If Trump has to do lots of rallies in OH or IA it's over, those are must holds to get to 200 EV's, let alone 270 EV's. He has to do minimal rallies in FL/OH/NC to hold the line, and then go balls to the wall in PA/MI/WI/AZ/MN/NH to win 2 or 3 of those states.
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