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re: Beta - Downgraded to TD - Now Short Break in Storms or Season Over?
Posted on 9/19/20 at 4:08 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 9/19/20 at 4:08 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Teddy is out there showing off with finishing up an EWRC and we don't have a plane in it to catch the new eye forming. That would have been nice.
I'll give you one guess which storm I have up on IR right now. Recon should still be interesting enough despite missing the end of the process.
4 pm doesn't shift the track on Beta, but does explicitly call for it not make hurricane now. They did note in the discussion they are right of consensus on track, so if the 18z suite continues to get inland I'd expect the track to move left at 10 tonight.
Storm is pulsing right now, showing shear still effecting it. Discussion states the shear might not actually decrease significantly.
1
Posted on 9/19/20 at 4:18 pm to Duke
quote:
Busy October looks likely, but historically that's more of a Florida problem at least.
Noooooo!
This post was edited on 9/19/20 at 4:19 pm
Posted on 9/19/20 at 4:44 pm to BayouENGR
Looks like rain total projections have been increased for Houston, SE Texas and SW LA
Posted on 9/19/20 at 4:46 pm to BayouENGR
quote:
Seagrove Beach
Good place!!!
Posted on 9/19/20 at 4:54 pm to lovethetigers7
Pretty wild how widespread they have the rainfall totals.
Posted on 9/19/20 at 4:59 pm to Duke
NOLA boys, did you see the Recon plane pass over just now? Probably too cloudy to see it. but it was there.
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:01 pm to burdman
quote:
haven’t really been paying attention to this storm. Why are the parishes around Vermilion Bay under a tropical storm warning?
Isn’t going to Texas and then maybe, in 5 days, SW LA?
The rain and the center are a bit separated
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:01 pm to burdman
Just came from Dulac. Wind 25 knots hard rain.
But the shrimp are giving.!,! Caught 8-16 each cast.
26-30s I
stopped at about 8 pounds. Boiled shrimp tonight.
But the shrimp are giving.!,! Caught 8-16 each cast.
26-30s I
stopped at about 8 pounds. Boiled shrimp tonight.
This post was edited on 9/19/20 at 5:03 pm
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:07 pm to lovethetigers7
quote:
Looks like rain total projections have been increased for Houston, SE Texas and SW LA
Big time totals creeping closer to the coast. There will be a very rich moisture plume streaming in to the north of the system.
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:08 pm to rds dc
10+ inches from Corpus Christi to Cocodrie?
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:10 pm to burdman
quote:
Corpus Christi to Cocodrie
Sounds like a county song
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:10 pm to Dire Wolf
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:11 pm to rds dc
quote:
Big time totals creeping closer to the coast. There will be a very rich moisture plume streaming in to the north of the system.
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:11 pm to Bigfishchoupique
quote:
Caught 8-16 each cast.
26-30s I
Are you just using a cast net?
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:15 pm to Dire Wolf
quote:
Sounds like a county song
10+ Inches from Corpus Christi to Cocodrie
Is an even better song
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:23 pm to LSURussian
Soon, very soon and it will expand to cover 80% of the US about 48 hours before landfall ..........
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:26 pm to rds dc
quote:
Looks like rain total projections have been increased for Houston, SE Texas and SW LA
Both the GFS and Euro show significantly lower totals. Why does NHC/WPC have them so much higher?
ETA: here's GFS
This post was edited on 9/19/20 at 5:28 pm
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:31 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
Both the GFS and Euro show significantly lower totals. Why does NHC/WPC have them so much higher?
The model totals also depend on the path the storm takes.
They're seeing this, a bunch of moisture wrapping around the north of the system. If this stays just along the coastline, the dry air won't get as wrapped in to break it up and the storm will remain stronger to pull it in.
It makes sense to have higher totals vs some of the modeling because of the path they have it taking.
This post was edited on 9/19/20 at 5:32 pm
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:31 pm to Bigfishchoupique
quote:
stopped at about 8 pounds. Boiled shrimp tonight.
No one likes a braggart.
Posted on 9/19/20 at 5:38 pm to Duke
Yeah, but it seems the ones coming off central america we tend to need to worry about in their season over there. What's monsoon season forecasted in central america?
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